Modelling nutrient dynamics in cold agricultural catchments: A review

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Highlights

  • The hydrology in most hydrological-nutrient models are decades behind the science.

  • Meaningful model structures based on observable and transferable parameters are recommended.

  • Many models showed potential inadequacy for heavily stratified soils.

  • The accumulation of soil organic immobile pools needs more attention in models.

  • Suggestions for model selection and recommendations for future directions are provided.

Abstract

The hydrology of cold regions has been studied for decades with substantial progress in process understanding and prediction. Simultaneously, work on nutrient yields from agricultural land in cold regions has shown much slower progress. Advancement of nutrient modelling is constrained by well-documented issues of spatial heterogeneity, climate dependency, data limitations and over-parameterization of models, as well as challenges specific to cold regions due to the complex (and often unknown) behaviour of hydro-biogeochemical processes at temperatures close to and below freezing where a phase change occurs.

This review is a critical discussion of these issues by taking a close look at the conceptual models and methods behind used catchment nutrient models. The impact of differences in model structure and the methods used for the prediction of hydrological processes, erosion and biogeochemical cycles are examined. The appropriateness of scale, scope, and complexity of models are discussed to propose future research directions.

Introduction

Agricultural activities and associated runoff of excess nutrients have impaired the ecological function of streams and lakes around the world (Carpenter et al., 1998; Withers and Lord, 2002; Schindler et al., 2012). This has led to significant efforts to reduce nutrient export and contain the growing global problem of eutrophication and cyanobacterial blooms. However, the quantification and prediction of nutrient exports to streams, lakes, and estuaries remain a difficult challenge despite decades of research on nutrient cycling and transport (Wade et al., 2008).

Cold climate regions are characterized by an average air temperature above 10 °C in the warmest months and below −3 °C in the coldest months (Peel et al., 2007). Cold regions hydrology is conceived as occurring in catchments where snowcover and frozen soils play a notable role in the hydrological cycle. Here, the problem of nutrient transport and pollution is affected by snow-related processes because they have a strong impact on flow generation, erosion and nutrient export (e.g. Brooks and Williams, 1999; Eimers et al., 2009; Casson et al., 2012). The spring freshet is often the major annual runoff event, and its magnitude and timing depend on both fall/winter processes and antecedent conditions, such as soil moisture, snowfall, and snow redistribution, as well as the characteristics of the snowmelt event such as duration, intensity and presence of frozen soils. In the Canadian Prairies, for instance, snowmelt runoff can account for more than 80% of the total annual runoff volume (Gray and Landine, 1988) and contribute the most nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) exported yearly (Corriveau et al., 2013). In these areas, snowmelt volume, melt rate and seasonally frozen soils are critical factors determining runoff-soil contact and erodibility (e.g. Ollesch et al., 2006; Panuska and Karthikeyan, 2010; Tiessen et al., 2010). Sub-zero temperatures, snowpacks, freeze-thaw cycling, and frozen soils may affect the biogeochemistry of these areas with impacts on nitrogen P and N.

There is considerable debate about the appropriateness of scale, scope, complexity, and accuracy of water quality models (Moore et al., 2006). Conventional process-based catchment nutrient models are increasingly complex and heavily parameterized but substantially simplify reality (Beck, 1987; Wade et al., 2008; Costa et al., 2019b). Uncertainties associated with hydrological and biogeochemical responses at various spatial scales, and sparse, sporadic water quality measurements with only rare measurements of key processes and pools further complicate the adequate use of catchment nutrient models, raising critical questions for the design, application, and benefit of such modelling tools.

This paper reviews the structure and conceptual foundation within widely used catchment nutrient models that have been applied in cold regions. It focusses primarily on processes specific to cold regions hydrology, which are the processes involving snow, ice and frozen soils as they affect the hydrological cycle. General hydrological and biogeochemical processes are also examined and discussed. Special attention is given to the processes directly affecting nutrient transport (magnitude, timing, and location), with an emphasis on the spring freshet as a period of great nutrient export to rivers and lakes. The review and model comparisons are used to (1) provide suggestions for model selection and recommendations for future research directions, and (2) discuss the appropriateness of scale, scope and complexity of nutrient models.

Section snippets

Nutrient export in cold agricultural regions: key processes

The movement of water and subsequent transport of nutrients in cold agricultural environments is strongly affected by the interplay of various snow, climate, soil and anthropogenic processes (Fig. 1). The relative importance of these processes varies depending on the location and land use.

Review of modelling methods

A relatively large number of water quality models are available. Mekonnen (2016) updated a previous compilation of water quality models by Shoemaker (1997) and identified 74 different models. The physical and biochemical principles underlining the methods used in each of these models, as well as the level of sophistication used in the methods deployed, frequently differ between models, often due to historical reasons (i.e., the initial motivation for developing the model). Also, catchment

Model limitations and strengths: suggestions for model selection and recommendations for future directions

The models reviewed in this study exhibit conceptual differences that can be important depending on the region and application. These differences are related to the characterization of the case study domain (horizontal and vertical computational elements) and the methods deployed to simulate the different hydrological and biogeochemical processes. In this section, various modelling aspects are discussed as to their strengths and limitations for different model applications. This is used to

Conclusions

The adequacy of process representations and model structural uncertainty of five popular catchment-scale hydrological-nutrient models suitable for cold regions (HYPE, INCA, SWAT, HSPF, and AnnAGNPS) has been examined to inform criteria for model selection, discuss the appropriateness of scale, scope and complexity, and provide recommendations for future research. The study involved examining the methods used for prediction of processes of general hydrology, cold regions hydrology, and N and P

Declaration of competing interest

The authors certify that they have NO affiliations with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest (such as honoraria; educational grants; participation in speakers’ bureaus; membership, employment, consultancies, stock ownership, or other equity interest; and expert testimony or patent-licensing arrangements), or non-fi financial interest (such as personal or professional relationships, affiliations, knowledge or beliefs) in the subject matter or materials

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the Global Water Futures Programme, the Canada Excellence Research Chair in Water Security, the Canada Research Chair in Water Resources and Climate Change, the Canadian Water Network and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) through its CREATE in Water Security and Discovery grants (463960–2015) for financial support.

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