Modelling policies towards pesticide-free agricultural production systems

Highlights

• We model the transition to pesticide-free production using a mixed.method approach.

• Especially yield losses determine whether pesticide-free cropping systems are adopted.

• Widespread voluntary adoption of pesticide-free systems is possible only if farmers are compensated for yield losses

• Flexible, voluntary pesticide-free policy and incentive programmes reduce trade-offs in food production.

• Swiss policy programs will likely trigger large-scale adoption of pesticide-free but non-organic production systems

Abstract

CONTEXT

The use of pesticides implies negative effects on human health and the environment. Thus, the reduction in pesticide risks without harming food security and farmers' income is a key policy goal.

OBJECTIVE

The aim is to investigate the implications of policies that explicitly foster the large-scale adoption of pesticide-free, non-organic production systems at the national scale using Swiss crop production as an illustrative example.

METHODS

We develop a bio-economic modelling approach that combines agent-based modelling, a Delphi study to assess yield implications and a detailed representation of labour and machinery implications of pesticide-free, non-organic production. Using an agent-based modelling framework allows the consideration of heterogeneous farm-specific adaptation responses to voluntary direct payments for crop-specific conversion to pesticide-free but non-organic production systems. The modelling framework is used to assess the effects of changing pesticide policies on farm and sector levels and its implications for (crop-specific) food production in terms of area, volume, value and income. Our approach is illustrated using Switzerland as an example, where voluntary direct payments for a crop-specific conversion to pesticide-free but non-organic production systems will be implemented.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The results show that the extent of crop-specific yield losses has an especially significant effect on the adoption rate of pesticide-free cropping systems. The impacts of introducing voluntary direct payments for pesticide-free production at the national scale imply reduced food (volume) and calorie production but only minimal reductions in the production value, especially due to expected higher prices for pesticide-free products. The effects on farmers' income are small, as participation in pesticide-free production is compensated with direct payments and higher prices and often implies cost reduction in labour and machinery due to non-use of pesticides. To establish large-scale production systems between conventional and organic cropping systems and, thereby, reduce trade-offs resulting from both extremes, policy schemes need to be flexible, allowing the adoption of a pesticide-free paradigm for some parts of the crop rotation but not necessarily entire crop rotations.

SIGNIFICANCE

This is the first national-scale study on the implications of adopting a pesticide-free, non-organic crop production system by using Swiss crop production as an illustrative example.