Abstract
This study focuses on the strengthening of the maritime influence on the Balkan Peninsula in summer. The study uses mainly statistical methods such as trend analysis, multiple linear regression models, etc. The research period is 1979–2020. The results show that in the beginning of the twenty-first century in southeastern Europe there is a tendency of faster increase in the average August air temperatures compared to the increase in average July air temperatures. Thus, the temperature in August is already higher than that in July. The causes for these changes are changes in atmospheric circulation in summer. Over the last two decades, the transport of air masses from east and southeast has been strengthening, which for the Balkan Peninsula means a transport from water basins toward land. The intra-annual course of air temperature above a water basin, which has a maximum in August, is now becoming typical over land. This feature is not yet present in the entire studied region, but the trends from the measurements in meteorological stations show that very soon the temperatures in August could be higher than that in July over the entire territory of the Balkan Peninsula. On a more global scale, it is still unclear which mechanisms of atmospheric circulation influence the processes in southeastern Europe. Changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic are likely to have an impact. However, other factors (e.g. the increase in global temperatures, the expansion of Hadley cell) may also have an impact.
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Data availability
The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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Acknowledgements
This study was funded by the research project “Current impacts of global changes on evolution of karst (based on the integrated monitoring of model karst geosystems in Bulgaria)”, Science Research Fund, Grant №DN14/10/20.12.2017. The author would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their useful comments/suggestions which have helped to substantially improve the manuscript.
Funding
This work was supported by Grant № DN14/10/20.12.2017, Science Research Fund of Bulgaria.
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Nojarov, P. Strengthening of the maritime influence on the Balkans in summer as a result of changes in atmospheric circulation. Clim Dyn 60, 3225–3239 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06501-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06501-z