Abstract
Few studies have investigated the retreat of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in comparison to its seasonal advances. This study examined the climatological characteristics of the EASM retreat based on the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis data and multiple observation data. First, the retreat date of EASM is defined based on the reversal of 850 hPa meridional winds over coastal East Asia. Then, the climatological characteristics of the EASM retreat are investigated based on the retreat date of the EASM. At lower troposphere, the differences of the 850-hPa winds between after and before the EASM retreat display an anticyclone (cyclone) over the East Asian continent (the subtropical western Pacific), resulting in the strengthening of northerly winds over the coastal region of East Asia. Such northerly winds lead to decrease of moisture transport over East Asia and bring colder air from higher latitudes to the coastal East Asia, both favoring the retreat of the EASM. At middle troposphere, the WPSH moves eastward, and a mid-latitude trough appears over northeast Asia. In addition, the difference fields show descending (ascending) motion and cold (warm) advection in the rear (front) of the mid-latitude trough. At upper troposphere, a divergent center exhibits a southeastward movement, which shifts from the Philippine Islands to the western North Pacific. As such, a convergence center appears over the coastal East Asia in the difference map. The retreat of the EASM is also associated with the decreased rainfall, the demise of the wet season, and the broadscale cooling over East Asia.
Similar content being viewed by others
1 Introduction
The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), mainly formed by large land-sea thermal contrast, is characterized by strong southerly winds and abundant rainfall over East Asia, one of the most populous regions in the world (Tao and Chen 1987; Xue et al. 2015; Huang et al. 2017a, b; Li et al. 2017, 2019; Ding et al. 2018; Chen et al. 2019). Anomalous activity of EASM can exert substantial impacts on the agriculture, ecosystem, and socioeconomic development over East Asia and remote regions (Huang et al. 2017a, b; Li et al. 2017; Ding et al. 2018). Investigating the EASM can improve our understanding of monsoon dynamics, its socioeconomic impacts, and short-term climate prediction over many parts of East Asia (Wang et al. 2008; Liu et al. 2019; Ha et al. 2020; Moon and Ha 2020).
A number of studies have examined variations of the EASM’s intensity, which can be measured in different perspectives (Tao and Chen 1987; Nakamura 1992; Wang et al. 2008; Ye and Chen 2019), such as low-level winds (Dai et al. 2000), wind shears (Lau and Yang 2000), and sea level pressure (SLP) gradient (Shi and Zhu 2015). The intensity of EASM exhibits both temporal and spatial variations and the related rainfall anomalies can induce floods and droughts in vast areas of East Asia (Wang 2001; Huang et al. 2007, 2017a, b; Ding et al. 2009; Ding et al. 2018; Li and Leung 2013; Xue et al. 2015; Liu et al. 2019; Yu et al. 2022). In addition to the intensity of EASM, the duration of EASM is also essential to weather and climate anomalies over East Asia. For example, the super Mei-yu in 2020 is characterized by a remarkably early onset (around 1 June), late withdrawal (around 1 August), and persistent precipitation during Mei-yu season, causing 178.96 billion CNY of direct economic losses in the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin (Volonté et al. 2020; Li et al. 2021; Chu et al. 2022). Therefore, detecting the timing of monsoon (i.e. the onset and retreat dates of monsoon) has important implications for society.
As suggested by Bombardi et al. (2020), the main methods used to detect the timing of monsoon can be separated into two types: local-scale methods and regional to large-scale methods. The local-scale methods characterize the timing of monsoon within a small region (an individual grid point or a station). For example, the global gridded dataset of the timing of the rainy seasons presented by Bombardi et al. (2019) is calculated at local scale (grid point). Meanwhile, the regional to large-scale methods usually calculate the spatially averaged variables in the monsoon domain, such as South America (Garcia and Kayano 2013) and India (Carvalho et al. 2016). Based on the time series of these spatially averaged variables, the large-scale evolution of the monsoon system can be revealed. For example, Garcia and Kayano (2013) used the area-averaged OLR anomaly as an index of the rainy season over the central Amazon and central Brazil regions. Both methods are complementary and offer different advantages in detecting the timing of monsoon. The local-scale methods can measure the spatial progression of monsoon system within the monsoon domain, such as the northward advance of the EASM front (Wang et al. 2021). However, due to the noise from small-scale variations, methods based on local-scale features might not fully represent the timing of monsoon, for example the “bogus monsoon onset” associated with synoptic variabilities (Fasullo and Webster 2003; Wang et al. 2008; Noska and Misra 2016). The regional to large scale methods that tailored to a certain monsoon system can reduce the spatial noise and better capture the signal of monsoon (Bombardi et al. 2020).
Additionally, Hu et al. (2019) noted that the timing of monsoon can be depicted from three perspectives, namely, the low-level winds, the warm-humid airmass, and the rainy season. In earlier studies, the low-level winds and the warm-humid airmass were often considered together to reveal the timing of monsoon (Wang 1999; Lv et al. 2011). Recently some studies have depicted the timing of monsoon by considering the perspective of the warm-humid airmass solely, such as the maximum in the tendency of vertically integrated moist static energy (Wang et al. 2021) and the meridional gradient of equivalent potential temperature (Volonté et al. 2021). In addition, Ding and Wang (2008) and Zhan (2016) simply used the precipitation as an indicator to define the timing of EASM. Currently, it is generally accepted that the northward advance of the EASM is stepwise (Huang et al. 2007; Ding and Wang 2008; Zhan et al. 2016; Ding et al. 2018; Volonté et al. 2021; Wang et al. 2021), and can be influenced by both tropical and mid-latitude processes (Huang et al. 2005; Ding and Chan 2005; Ding and Wang 2008; Kong et al. 2017; Kong and Chiang 2020; Volonté et al. 2021). In comparison to the monsoon onset, less attention has been paid to the EASM retreat.
So far, there is no study specialized in analyzing the retreat of EASM, and its characteristics largely remain unknown. A small number of studies suggested that the EASM retreat usually occurs in late-August to early-September, and is significantly faster than the northward advancement of the EASM, without lingering in any areas (Ding and Wang 2008; Lv et al. 2011; Zhan et al. 2016; Ding et al. 2018). However, most of these studies are based on the movement of rainy belt and local-scale methods. For example, Zhan et al. (2016) considered the pentad-averaged precipitation falling below 4.0 mm/day consistently for 2 pentads as the demise time of the EASM. It may be subjective and not sufficient to some degree: (1) the threshold value of 4.0 mm/day and lasting for 2 pentads may be debatable; (2) sometimes the spatial noise, such as heavy rain and relatively dry stage can largely influence the ending date of rainy season in a local area (Trenberth and Kevin 2006; Bombardi et al. 2020). Noting that the Asian monsoon is not only characterized with rapid alternation of dry and wet seasons but also a distinct seasonal reversal of wind (Webster et al. 1998; Ding and Chan 2005; Hu et al. 2019), using the low-level wind as an indicator in defining the EASM retreat may be more objective: due to the naturally existing threshold (0 m/s) for the direction of winds, no subjectively given threshold is required. Also, the East Asian monsoon is a large-scale system and methods based on the local scale may not well capture the rapid retreat of large-scale monsoon phenomena (Trenberth and Kevin 2006; Bombardi et al. 2020). Thus, a large-scale method is needed. In addition, traditional climatic calendar mean data cannot fully represent the features of monsoon retreat as there may be inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities (Hu et al. 2019).
Therefore, in this paper, based on composited data (i.e. the average of changes around the retreat dates in individual years), we focus on the large-scale phenomenon of winds alteration, and analyze the climatological features of the EASM retreat systematically. In the following, Section "Data and method" describes the datasets and methods. Section "Results" presents the climatological characteristics of the EASM retreat, including the circulation changes and the related synoptic phenomena. Section "Summary and discussion" is the summary and discussion.
2 Data and method
2.1 Data
The datasets used in the present study are as follows: (1) daily (i.e. geopotential height, horizontal winds, vertical velocity, surface temperature, and sea level pressure) and monthly (i.e. horizontal winds and geopotential height) atmospheric data from the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) project conducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency (Kobayashi et al. 2015) from 1958 to 2019, (2) pentad (5-day) and monthly precipitation analysis data of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP; Xie et al. 2003; Alder et al. 2003) from 1979 to 2019, (3) tropical cyclone (TC) best-track data of the China Meteorological Administration (Ming et al. 2014) from 1958 to 2019. The horizontal resolutions are 1.25° × 1.25° for JRA-55; 2.5° × 2.5° for GPCP; and 0.1° × 0.1° for TC best-track from China Meteorological Administration.
2.2 Methods
As mentioned in the Introduction, the EASM retreat tends to occur in late-August to early-September, which is mainly featured by the southward withdrawal of rainy belt and large-scale winds reversal. Figure 1 shows the climatology of 850 hPa winds and rainfall in August, September, and the difference between September and August. In August (Fig. 1a), strong low-level southwesterly winds are dominant over the SCS and the Western North Pacific (WNP). The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is distributed in a belt shape with ridge line extending from the south of Japan to central Pacific, and southeasterly winds are prevalent over its southern flank. In addition, the southerly and southeasterly winds are evident over coastal East Asia (box in Fig. 1). Strong rainfall with value exceeding 4 mm/day appears in most area of the East Asia continent. In September, the ridge line of the WPSH moves southward slightly, but the westernmost point remains stable. It is obvious that the low-level winds shift from southerly to northerly over the coastal and continental East Asia, and the rainy belt moves to the Southeast Asia and tropical WNP. From August to September (Fig. 1b–c), even though the movement of WPSH is subtle, the monsoonal retreat features are very pronounced. The amount of rainfall is significantly decreased over most area of East Asia. In the difference fields (Fig. 1c), an anticyclonic circulation dominates East Asia with distinct meridional winds reversal in eastern China as well as its neighboring ocean, while the southwesterly winds over the SCS and southeasterly winds over the WNP are significantly weakened. Furthermore, since the seasonal cycle of monsoon can be depicted by the winds reversal (i.e., summertime southwesterly and wintertime northeasterly), we further analyse the latitudinal evolution of 850 hPa winds over East Asia. As shown in Fig. 2, in early September, the winds shift rapidly from southerly to northerly, especially to the north of 20° N, indicating the seasonal transition of monsoonal circulation. Therefore, we focus on the transition of lower level circulation and define the largest center (120°–130° E, 20°–40° N) of the V850 difference between September and August as the key region of winds alteration.
As shown in Fig. 3a, even though the climatology of daily V850 (and its 7-day smoothed series) exhibits notable fluctuations, the withdrawal process in early September is especially transient with the winds rapidly shifting from southerly to northerly. For the yearly series, the daily V850 (and its 7-day smoothed series) shows high-frequency fluctuation, which makes it hard to figure out the specific transitional day. Thus, an objective and unified identification of the transitional day is needed. Previous studies have shown that accumulated series of atmospheric variables has less fluctuation and can be applied to investigate the timing of the SCSSM as well as the rainy seasons over other monsoonal regions (Liebmann and Marengo 2001; Cook and Buckley 2009; Noska and Misra 2016; Luo and Lin 2017; Bombardi 2017, 2019). Therefore, we accumulate the 7-day smoothed V850 starting from January 1 to every calendar day for every year (February 29 for leap years are omitted), and obtain daily cumulative V850 series (Fig. 3b). The equation is provided as follows:
where \(V^{\prime}_{y} (d)\) denotes the daily cumulative V850 for day d of year y, and the \({V}_{y}(i)\) denotes 7-day smoothed V850 for day i of year y. The daily cumulative V850 series for both climatology and each year exhibit less fluctuation than the original V850 series. Similar to Noska and Misra (2016) and Luo and Lin (2017), the retreat day of EASM is defined as the day when cumulative V850 reaches its absolute maximum. This criterion gives rise to objective characterization of the retreat date of EASM. For example, the retreat date of the EASM is September 9 in 2019 (Fig. 3c). On September 9 of 2019, the cumulative V850 reaches it absolute maximum and alters its signal from ascending to descending, suggesting the steady reversal of V850 from southerly to northerly.
The EASM retreat dates are calculated from the period of 1958 to 2019 based on the definition described above. Since the GPCP rainfall data is based on 73-pentad values every year, we transfer the retreat date into pentad series. The 73-pentad mean data are also constructed from the daily data for each year with the leap day omitted. In order to filter out the noises and highlight common climatic characteristic of the EASM retreat, we use climatological composited mean data to analyse the related phenomena in the following. The P–1, P0, and P+1 denote the time before, during, and after one pentad of monsoonal retreat, respectively. In this study, we determine P0 (i.e., the EASM retreat pentad) for every individual year and obtain the features based on average of changes around P0 in individual years.
After the TCs genesises, the activities and landfall of TCs often bring enormous disasters to the surrounding regions such as the Philippines, Vietnam, China, and Korea (Choi et al. 2017; 2019). Studies have shown that TCs genesises and activities are closely related with the EASM circulation (Zhong and Hu 2007; Wang et al. 2012; Chang et al. 2012; Choi et al. 2017; Wang and Wang 2019). The enhancement of the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) can supply more energy for the generation and development of TCs (Huangfu et al. 2017; Hu et al. 2020). Thus, we employ the EKE at 850 hPa, that is, \(\frac{1}{2}\left( {\overline{{u^{{\prime}{2}} }} + \overline{{v^{{\prime}{2}} }} } \right)\), to detect the genesises and activities of TCs. Here, \(u^{\prime}\) and \(v^{\prime}\) denote the 2.5–7-day Butterworth bandpass-filtered 850 hPa zonal and meridional winds, respectively. The overbars represent the pentad mean value of the winds.
Following previous studies, storm tracks can be depicted by various eddy variance and covariance quantities (Blackmon et al. 1977; Chang and Fu 2002; Athanasiadis et al. 2010). In this study, the storm track activity is calculated as the 2.5–7-day Butterworth bandpass-filtered 300 hPa geopotential height variance (referred to as \(\overline{{Z^{\prime}Z^{\prime}}}_{300}\), where the apostrophe indicates the filtered anomalies and the overbar denotes the pentad mean). A two-sided Student’s t-test is used to assess the statistical significance of the composited differences.
3 Results
3.1 Verification of the EASM retreat dates
Since the definition of EASM retreat is characterized as V850 reversal, we use V850 to verify the time series quality. Figure 4 provides the time series of EASM retreat as well as the area-average V850 over the key region (120°–130° E, 20°–40° N; box in Fig. 1) during 1958–2019. Slight changes of the region lead to very similar result. The winds direction changes from southerly to northerly as soon as the monsoon retreats and remains stable afterwards. Even though in some years, there is slight southerly winds disturbance after the monsoon withdrawal, it is transient and disappears quickly. In addition, the climatological retreat date is September 6 and the standard deviation (SD) is approximately 16 days, thus the V850 averaged over August 21 to September 22 (i.e., within one SD) is used to reveal the variation of V850 during the EASM retreat periods. The retreat date and the averaged V850 have a positive correlation of 0.64 (significant at 99% confidence level), indicating that a late retreat year is often associated with anomalously strong southerlies during the climatological monsoon retreat period and vice versa. Above all, it shows that the definition of EASM retreat is reliable and we can make further analysis on the basis of it.
3.2 Changes in atmospheric circulation during the EASM retreat periods
Figure 5 displays the composited 850 hPa winds and rainfall during monsoonal retreat periods. Before the EASM retreats (Fig. 5a), a large anticyclonic circulation dominates the subtropical western Pacific along with strong southerly winds over the neighboring ocean of East China. A cyclonic circulation is located around the SCS with strong southwesterly winds prevailing over the Indochina Peninsula and the southern SCS. The northerlies from mid-high latitudes of Asia intensify and invade equatorward in P0 (Fig. 5b). A strong anticyclonic circulation is established over East Asia in P+1. Winds over the neighboring ocean of East China shift rapidly from southerly to northerly and the strong southwesterly winds over the SCS also weakened and retreated southwards. Since previous studies usually applied the movement of rainy belt to depict monsoonal withdrawal (e.g., Wang and LinHo 2002; Ding and Wang 2008; Zhan et al. 2016), here we provide the rainfall evolution during monsoon retreat periods as well. Corresponding to the circulation evolution, the amount of rainfall decreases observably and the rainy belt moves southward to Southeast Asia after monsoon withdrawal (Fig. 5b–c). It can also be seen from Fig. 5d that the difference between after and before the EASM retreat displays an anticyclonic circulation over East Asia with prevalence of the southerly winds along the coastal area of eastern China. To its east, a cyclone appears with a center located to the south of Japan. Concurrently, the rainfall significantly decreases over coastal East Asia and increases over western Pacific with one center located slightly to the east of the cyclone and the other located over the Mariana Islands, suggesting the inherent coupling between circulation and rainfall, which will be discussed later.
At middle troposphere (i.e., 500 hPa), the circulation systems are coherent with those at the lower level. Figure 6a–c displays the climatology of 500 hPa vertical velocity and geopotential height in P–1, P0, and P+1, respectively. The difference between P+1 and P–1 is shown in Fig. 6d. During the monsoon retreat period (Fig. 6a–c), the WPSH migrates eastward, a low trough over Northeast Asia deepens and intrudes southward, and the descending (ascending) motion strengthens in north and northeastern China (subtropical western Pacific). The difference map shows that a large northwest-southeast low trough extends from northeastern China and the Sea of Japan to subtropical western Pacific, along with strengthened ascending motion in the front of the trough and descending motion in the rear of the trough after the EASM retreat (Fig. 6d).
As suggested by Ding (1994), the thermal and vorticity advection by the upper level trough is important in triggering the rising motion. Thus more insight can be gained by exploring the so-called omega equation, which can be decomposed into three terms: the changes of vorticity advection with pressure, the Laplacian of thermal advection, and the Laplacian of atmospheric diabatic heating. The omega equation offers a good qualitative description of the vertical motion field on a large scale (Holton and Hakim 2013). Taking the ascending motion as an example: in the difference fields of the lower troposphere (Fig. 5d), a cyclone appears in the subtropical western Pacific with a small amount of vorticity advection, while positive vorticity advection prevails in the front of the upper-level trough. The vorticity advection increases (decreases) with height (pressure), favoring the upward motion over the subtropical western Pacific. The warm advection in the front of the trough and the released latent heating resulting from increased precipitation are favorable for the upward motion as well. Similarly, the decreasing (increasing) vorticity advection with height (pressure), the cold advection, and the diabatic cooling due to the reduction of precipitation can lead to downward motion in the rear of the trough, which is located in the coastal area of East China.
In the upper troposphere (i.e., 200 hPa), the subtropical westerly jet accelerates and intrudes southward, reaching a speed above 35 m/s after one pentad of monsoon retreat (Fig. 7a–c). For the differences between Fig. 7c and Fig. 7a (i.e., the difference between after and before one pentad of monsoon retreat), despite the strengthening of the subtropical westerly jet, it is interesting to note that to the west of the 500 hPa trough, the difference of the upper troposphere shows a trough as well (Fig. 7d), indicating a structure of baroclinic growth (Holton and Hakim 2013). Also, since the divergent circulation can well reflect the distribution of atmospheric cold and heat sources in the planetary scale (Zhang et al. 1996; Liu et al. 2019), the divergent flow and velocity potential at 200 hPa are provided in Fig. 8. Figure 8a–c displays that the divergent center gradually decreases and moves from the SCS and the Philippines Sea to the Caroline Islands from P–1 to P+1. After the monsoon retreat, the velocity potential over East Asia significantly increases with the largest center located around the southeast of China. In the difference fields (Fig. 8d), the divergent winds are significant from the west Pacific and northwestern China to eastern and northeastern China, and the divergent easterly winds are especially strong over the coastal area of eastern China. Correspondingly, the 850 hPa divergent circulation (not shown) exhibits opposite alteration, with decreased velocity potential and reversed divergent zonal winds over East Asia, indicating the changes of zonal land-sea thermal contrast after monsoonal withdrawal.
After analyzing the circulation in the lower, middle, and upper troposphere separately, it is crucial to investigate its vertical structure. Following previous studies (Chen et al. 2014; Hu et al. 2019), we use divergent winds that are directly associated with vertical motion to depict the vertical circulation. In addition, since both the 500 hPa vertical velocity (Fig. 6d) and divergent winds (Fig. 8d) exhibit zonal difference, we provide meridional averaged (20°–40° N) values. Figure 9a–c displays the climatology of composited divergent zonal winds and vertical velocities in P–1, P0, and P+1, respectively. Figure 9d shows the difference between P+1 and P–1. In P–1 (i.e., before the EASM retreat), distinct ascending motion dominates the East Asia continent, with a center of action near mid-to-upper troposphere over the neighboring ocean of East China (Fig. 9a). Accompanying with the above ascending motion, the divergent flows in both the upper-and-lower level are divided into two branches. In P0 (i.e., the monsoon retreats, Fig. 9b), the primary upward motion disappears immediately. After one pentad of the monsoon withdrawal, the upward motion migrates eastwards, a weak sinking motion occurs over the coastal area of eastern China, and the branches of divergent flow are displaced by a single but intensified divergent flows (Fig. 9c), indicating the formation of the local vertical circulation. The difference map between P+1 and P–1 clearly shows a vertical circulation cell with downward motion over the eastern China as well as its neighboring ocean, upward motion in the subtropical western Pacific, and divergent easterly and westerly winds in upper and lower troposphere, respectively (Fig. 9d).
3.3 Precipitation, surface temperature, and synoptic phenomena associated with the EASM retreat
Changes in the large-scale circulation related to the EASM retreat have been examined above. In this subsection, we further investigated precipitation, surface temperature, and synoptic-scale phenomena including the TCs activities and storm tracks activities (STA) during the EASM retreat periods.
After the monsoonal retreat, significant decrease in rainfall is observed over coastal area of East China and marked increase in rainfall is found over subtropical western Pacific as shown in Fig. 5d. The three-dimensional circulation is coherent and is conducive to rainfall difference. Figure 10a–c displays the SLP and surface temperature evolution in P–1, P0 and P+1, respectively. The difference between P+1 and P–1 is shown in Fig. 10d. After the EASM retreat, the East Asia continent is dominated by a cold high, the continental SLP is significantly higher and the difference map shows a low center over the subtropical western Pacific (Fig. 10c–d). Also, it is distinctly colder over the whole East Asia region and the cooling of surface temperature is especially large over the northeastern China (Fig. 10d). The changes of SLP and surface temperature coincide well with the difference of three-dimensional circulation after and before the EASM retreat: The cold advection in the back of 500 hPa trough and the northerly winds in 850 hPa bring colder air from higher latitudes to East Asia, leading to a broadscale decrease in surface temperature. Furthermore, the cold air mass with higher density may enhance both the continental high and the associated zonal land-sea pressure gradient, thus favoring the strengthening of northerly winds along the coastal East Asia.
In addition, studies suggested that the WPSH and the subtropical westerly jet that are essential components of the EASM can alter the vertical wind shear and thereby influence the generation and development of TCs (Wang et al. 2012; Wang and Wang 2019). Also, the EASM circulation can regulate the tracks of TCs via modulating the location of WPSH (Zhong and Hu 2007; Wang et al. 2012; Chang et al. 2012; Choi et al. 2017). For example, when the WPSH shrink eastward, the middle and lower level winds (i.e. southeasterly and southwesterly winds) around the frank of the WPSH will work as steering flows and make the TCs head northward. In our study, after the EASM retreat, the WPSH shrinks eastward and the subtropical westerly jet enhances and intrudes southward significantly. We wonder if there are any changes in TCs genesises and activities during the EASM retreat periods. Figure 11a–b shows the TCs activities before and after the monsoon retreat, and Fig. 11c provides the 850 hPa EKE difference between P+1 and P–1, which can well represent the changes of synoptic-scale eddies activities in the lower level (Huangfu et al. 2021). After monsoonal retreat, due to the steering flows in middle and lower levels, less TCs reach the land of East Asia while much more TCs advance northward. The changes in TCs activities are corresponding to the 850 hPa EKE difference: the EKE is reduced in southeast China and the East China Sea while increased over the subtropical western Pacific (Fig. 11c). The changes in TCs activities can also benefit the rainfall pattern: the upward motion accompanying with cyclonic circulation and abundant moisture brought by TCs can be conducive to precipitation increase and vice versa (Chen et al. 2017).
Storm tracks are generally described as the preferred migratory pathways of extratropical cyclone propagation (Blackmon et al. 1977) and changes in STA have a substantial impact on weather and climate by influencing the transport of water vapor, heat, and momentum (Shaw et al. 2016). Studies have shown that the STA are weakest in summer and strongest in winter, and that the STA are strongly coupled with the subtropical westerly jet (Chang 2001; Harnik and Chang 2004). Our study has revealed that the westerly jet accelerates and intrudes southward after the EASM retreat (Fig. 7). Hence, we wonder if the STA will enhance together with the westerly after the EASM retreat, which is considered to occur at the end of summer. Figure 12 presents the changes of STA between P+1 and P–1. Similar to previous studies (Nakamura 1992; Deng and Sun 1994; Chang 2001; Harnik and Chang 2004), the STA are much more active over the Northeast Asia and the North Pacific Ocean, and are slightly poleward toward the jet streams in the difference fields (Fig. 7d), suggesting the intrinsic coupling between the jet and STA (Chang 2001; Harnik and Chang 2004).
3.4 Shifts in different atmospheric variables
Figure 13 displays the time series of several atmospheric variables from 10 pentads before to 10 pentads after the EASM retreat, including the V850 over the key region of winds reversal (20°–40° N, 120°–130° E), the 200 hPa zonal winds over the mid-latitudes (30°–45° N, 100°–150° E), which can reveal the strengthening of subtropical westerly jet, and other variables including precipitation, 500 hPa geopotential height and surface temperature over the East Asia continent (20°–50° N, 105°–130° E). All of these variables experience remarkable shift during the EASM retreat. And it is interesting to note that even though we apply the winds reversal at sea to obtain the EASM retreat dates, other variables over the continent also exhibit significant changes during monsoon retreat periods, revealing the spatial aggregation and synchronization of the broadscale monsoon system. In the lower level, the V850 shifts rapidly from southerly to northerly once the monsoon retreat, the divergence of vertically integrated moisture transport (VIMT) shifts from negative to positive, suggesting a less transport of moisture over East Asia continent. Also, as suggested by Zhan et al. (2016), the threshold of 4 mm/day can be used as a criteria for the demise of rainy season. Correspondingly, the precipitation shows an abrupt drop and remains below 4 mm/day after the EASM retreat, indicating the synchronization of rainfall and circulation. In addition, the surface level pressure is becoming higher and the surface temperature is persistently falling. In the middle troposphere, the decreasing 500 hPa geopotential height indicates a deepening of mid-level low trough above the East Asia continent, the pressure vertical velocity exhibits opposite direction and the descending motion is continuously strengthening after the EASM retreat. In the higher level, the subtropical jet changes from easterly to westerly and gradually intensifies after monsoon retreat. The 200 hPa geopotential height is decreasing and the velocity potential is increasing, indicating the alteration of land-sea thermal difference during monsoonal retreat. It can be concluded that the evolution of these variables can not only reveal the coherent three-dimensional circulation but also suggest the inherent coupling between circulation and synoptic phenomena.
4 Summary and discussion
Based on the direction of 850 hPa meridional winds over the coastal East Asia, we apply the absolute maximum of cumulative V850 to identify the winds reversal date and obtain the time series of the EASM retreat date from 1958 to 2019. After that, we use climatological composited data to depict the changes of three-dimensional circulation and synoptic phenomena during monsoon retreat periods. Based on the characteristics of the tropospheric circulation and the accompanying weather phenomena, we pay specific attention to the impacts of circulation on the rainfall and surface temperature and the results are as follows:
Figure 14 shows the summary for the difference fields after and before the EASM retreat. In the lower level, the anticyclone (cyclone) over East Asia continent (the western subtropical Pacific) suppresses (favors) the transport of moisture over the SCS and the WNP thus favoring the decrease (increase) of precipitation there. And the shifts of circulation in the lower level also work as steering flows and lead the TCs activities, the upward motion and moisture associated with TCs contributes to the increase of rainfall over the western subtropical Pacific. Furthermore, the northerlies help the southward intrusion of cold air, resulting in the broadscale cooling over East Asia.
In the middle troposphere, the WPSH moves eastward, a low trough from Northeast Asia appears and extends southward. The advection of dry and cold air (moist and warm air) and the negative (positive) vorticity advection in the rear (front) of the trough are favorable for the sinking (ascending) motion, contributing to the decrease (increase) of rainfall in the East Asia continent (the subtropical western Pacific). In the meanwhile, the cold air advection in the rear of the trough will also benefit the cooling over East Asia.
In the 200 hPa field, there exists a trough as well but it is slightly west to the 500 hPa trough, suggesting a typical structure of baroclinic generation. The subtropical westerly jet intensifies continuously and the divergent easterly winds are remarkable over the neighboring ocean of East China.
Climatological circulation characteristics of the EASM retreat as well as its influence on precipitation, surface temperature, and the synoptic phenomena are analyzed in this paper, however, there are still some interesting points to discuss further: Wang and LinHo (2002) noted that the heat source associated with rainfall can drive monsoonal circulation and the circulation is tightly coupled with rainfall. However, in this analysis we only focus on how circulation influences the precipitation and the impacts of precipitation on circulation deserve further discussion. Here, we offer some preliminary hypothesis: based on the Gill model (Gill 1980), the cyclonic circulation over western subtropical Pacific in the difference fields of 850-hPa winds may be regarded as a Rossby wave response to the latent heating caused by increased rainfall in the local area (Fig. 5d). The Rossby wave dynamics may be crucial during the EASM retreat periods. In addition, Qi et al. (2008) pointed out that the precipitation can be conducive to the zonal thermal contrast between Asian continent and the West Pacific that drives the seasonal march of EASM. However, to what extent does the thermal difference that related to rainfall drive the retreat of EASM remains unknown.
Data availability
The JRA-55 dataset (Kobayashi et al. 2015) is available at https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds628.0/. The monthly GPCP precipitation data (Alder et al. 2003) is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/global-precipitation-climatology-project-gpcp-monthly/access/. The pentad GPCP precipitation data (Xie et al. 2003) is available through anonymous ftp from the Climate Precipitation Center (CPC) online at ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/precip/GPCP_PEN and from the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of at ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/gpcp. The TC best-track data (Ying et al. 2014) is available at https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/zjljsjj_zlhq.html.
References
Adler RF et al (2003) The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present). J Hydrometeor 4:1147–1167
Athanasiadis PJ, Wallace JM, Wettstein JJ (2010) Patterns of wintertime jet stream variability and their relation to the storm tracks. J Atmos Sci 67:1361–1381
Blackmon ML, Wallace JM, Lau NC, Mullen SL (1977) An observational study of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation. J Atmos Sci 34:1040–1053
Bombardi RJ, Pegion KV, Kinter JL, Cash BA, Adams JM (2017) Sub-seasonal predictability of the onset and demise of the rainy season over monsoonal regions. Front Earth Sci 5:00014
Bombardi RJ, Kinter JL, Frauenfeld OW (2019) A global gridded dataset of the characteristics of the rainy and dry seasons. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 100:1315–1328
Bombardi RJ, Moron V, Goodnight JS (2020) Detection, variability, and predictability of monsoon onset and withdrawal dates: a review. Int J Climatol 40:641–667
Carvalho LMV, Jones C, Cannon F, Norris J (2016) Intraseasonal-to-interannual variability of the Indian monsoon identified with the large-scale index for the Indian monsoon system (lims). J Clim 29:2941–2962
Chang EKM (2001) GCM and observational diagnoses of the seasonal and interannual variations of the Pacific storm track during the cool season. J Atmos Sci 58:1784–1800
Chang EKM, Fu Y (2002) Interdecadal variations in northern hemisphere winter storm track intensity. J Clim 15:642–658
Chang CP, Lei Y, Sui CH et al (2012) Tropical cyclone and extreme rainfall trends in East Asian summer monsoon since mid-20th century. Geophys Res Lett 39:L18702
Chen S, Wei K, Chen W, Song L (2014) Regional changes in the annual mean Hadley circulation in recent decades. J Geophys Res Atmos 119:7815–7832
Chen J, Wen Z, Wang X (2017) Relationship over southern China between the summer rainfall Induced by tropical cyclones and that by monsoon. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 10:96–103
Chen W, Lin W, Feng J et al (2019) Recent progress in studies of the variabilities and mechanisms of the East Asian monsoon in a changing climate. Adv Atmos Sci 36:887–901
Choi JW, Cha Y, Kim JY (2017) Change in the tropical cyclone activity around Korea by the East Asian summer monsoon. Geosci Lett 4:2
Chu Q, Lian T, Chen D et al (2022) The role of El Niño in the extreme Mei-Yu rainfall in 2020. Atmos Res 266:105965
Cook BI, Buckley BM (2009) Objective determination of monsoon season onset, withdrawal, and length. J Geophys Res Atmos 114:D23109
Dai N, Xie A, Zhang Y (2000) Interannual and interdecadal variations of summer monsoon activities over South China Sea. Climat Environm Res 5:363–374 ((in Chinese))
Deng X, Sun Z (1994) Characteristic of temporal evolution of nothern storm tracks. J Nanjing Inst Meteorol 17:165–170 ((in Chinese))
Ding Y (1994) Monsoons over China. Kluwer Academic Publisher, Dordrecht
Ding Y, Chan JCL (2005) The East Asian summer monsoon: an overview. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:117–142
Ding Y, Wang Z (2008) A study of rainy seasons in China. Meteorol Atmos Phys 100:121–138
Ding Y, Sun Y, Wang Z et al (2009) Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon Part II: possible causes. Int J Climatol 29:1926–1944
Ding Y et al (2018) On the Characteristics, driving forces and inter-decadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon. Chi J Atmos Sci 42:533–558 ((in Chinese))
Fasullo JT, Webster PJ (2003) A hydrological definition of Indian monsoon onset and withdrawal. J Clim 16:3200–3211
Garcia SR, Kayano MT (2013) Some considerations on onset dates of the rainy season in western-central Brazil with antisymmetric outgoing longwave radiation relative to the equator. Int J Climatol 33:188–198
Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 106:447–462
Ha KJ, Moon S, Timmermann A, Kim D (2020) Future changes of summer monsoon characteristics and evaporative demand over Asia in CMIP6 Simulations. Geophys Res Lett 47: e2020GL087492
Harnik N, Chang EKM (2004) The effects of variations in jet width on the growth of baroclinic waves: implications for midwinter Pacific storm track variability. J Atmos Sci 61:23–40
Holton JR, Hakim GJ (2013) An introduction to dynamic meteorology. Academic Press: 88
Hu P, Chen W, Huang R et al (2019) Climatological characteristics of the synoptic changes accompanying South China Sea summer monsoon withdrawal. Int J Climatol 39:596–612
Hu P, Huangfu J, Chen W et al (2020) Impacts of early/late South China Sea summer monsoon withdrawal on tropical cyclone genesis over the western north Pacific. Clim Dyn 55:1507–1520
Huang R, Gu L, Xu Y et al (2005) Characteristics of the interannual variations of onset and advance of the East Asian summer monsoon and their associations with thermal states of the tropical western Pacific. Chin J Atmos Sci 29:26–42 ((in Chinese))
Huang R, Chen J, Huang G (2007) Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impacts on climate disasters in China. Adv Atmos Sci 24:993–1023
Huang R, Liu Y, Du Z et al (2017a) Differences and links between the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon systems: characteristics and variability. Adv Atmos Sci 34:1204–1218
Huang R, Chen S, Chen W, Hu P (2017b) Interannual variability of regional Hadley circulation intensity over western Pacific during boreal winter and its climatic impact over Asia-Australia region. J Geophys Res Atmos 123:344–366
Huangfu J, Huang R, Chen W (2017) Relationship between the South China Sea summer monsoon onset and tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific. Int J Climatol 37:5206–5210
Huangfu J, Chen W, Lai X et al (2021) Roles of synoptic-scale waves and intraseasonal oscillations in the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon. Int J Climatol 42(5):2923–2934
Kobayashi S, Ota Y, Harada Y et al (2015) The JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications and basic characteristics. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 93:5–48
Kong W, Chiang JCH (2020) Interaction of the westerlies with the Tibetan Plateau in determining the Mei-Yu termination. J Clim 33:339–363
Kong W, Swenson LM, Chiang JCH (2017) Seasonal transitions and the westerly jet in the holocene East Asian summer monsoon. J Clim 30(9):3343–3365
Lau K-M, Kim K-M, Yang S (2000) Dynamical and boundary forcing characteristics of regional components of the Asian Summer monsoon. J Clim 13:2461–2482
Li Y, Leung LR (2013) Potential impacts of the Arctic on interannual and interdecadal summer precipitation over China. J Clim 26:899–917
Li Y, Ding Y, Li W (2017) Interdecadal variability of the Afro-Asian summer Monsoon system. Adv Atmos Sci 34:833–846
Li Z, Sun Y, Li T et al (2019) Future changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation under 1.5 to 5 °C of warming. Earth’s Future 7:1391–1406
Li H, Sun B, Wang H et al (2021) Joint effects of three oceans on the 2020 super Mei-Yu. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 15:100127
Liebmann B, Marengo J (2001) Interannual variability of the rainy season and rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon basin. J Clim 14:4308–4318
Liu Y, Liang P, Sun Y (2019) The Asian summer monsoon. Elsevier
Luo M, Lin L (2017) Objective determination of the onset and withdrawal of the South China Sea Summer monsoon. Atmos Sci Lett 18:276–282
Lv X, Zhang X, Chen J (2011) The interdecadal variability of north-south movement of East Asian summer monsoon and its effect on the regional rainfall over China. J Trop Meteorol 27:860–868
Ming Y, Zhang W, Yu H et al (2014) An overview of the China meteorological administration tropical cyclone database. J Atmos Ocean Technol 31:287–301
Moon S, Ha K-J (2020) Future changes in monsoon duration and precipitation using CMIP6. NPJ Clim Atmos Sci 3:45
Nakamura H (1992) Midwinter suppression of baroclinic wave activity in the Pacific. J Atmos Sci 49:1629–1642
Noska R, Misra V (2016) Characterizing the onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 43:4547–4554
Qi L, He J, Zhang Z et al (2008) Seasonal cycle of the zonal land-sea thermal contrast and East Asian subtropical monsoon circulation. Chin Sci Bull 53:131–136
Shaw TA, Baldwin MP, Barnes EA, Caballero R, Garfinkel CI, Hwang Y et al (2016) Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change. Nat Geosci 9:656–664
Shi N, Zhu Q (2015) An abrupt change in the intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon index and its relationship with temperature and precipitation over East China. Int J Climatol 16:757–764
Tao SY, Chen L (1987) A review of recent research on the East Asian summer monsoon in China. Monsoon Meteorol 60–92
Trenberth KE, Hurrell JW, Stepaniak DP (2006) The Asian monsoon: global perspectives. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Volonté A, Muetzelfeldt M, Schiemann R et al (2020) Magnitude, scale, and dynamics of the 2020 Mei-Yu rains and floods over China. Adv Atmos Sci 38:2082–2096
Volonté A, Turner AG, Schiemann R et al (2021) The interaction of tropical and extratropical air masses controlling East Asian summer monsoon progression. Weather Clim Dyn Discuss 1–29
Wang A (1999) The definition of the advance and retreat of the summer monsoon in China. Plateau Meteorol 18:147–155
Wang H (2001) The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970’s. Adv Atmos Sci 18:376–386
Wang B (2002) Rainy season of the Asian-Pacific summer monsoon. J Clim 15:386–398
Wang L, Wang L (2019) Impact of the East Asian winter monsoon on tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the South China Sea. Int J Climatol 40:1328–1334
Wang B, Wu Z, Li J et al (2008) How to measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon. J Clim 21:4449–4463
Wang X, Zhou W, Li C et al (2012) Effects of the East Asian summer monsoon on tropical cyclone genesis over the South China Sea on an interdecadal time scale. Adv Atmos Sci 29:249–262
Wang Z, Chen X, Zhou T (2021) The onset and seasonal march of East Asian summer monsoon from perspective of moist static energy. Chin Sci Bull 66:3744–3756
Webster PJ, Magana VO, Palmer TN et al (1998) Monsoons: processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res Oceans 103:14451–14510
Xie P, Janowiak JE, Arkin PA et al (2003) GPCP pentad precipitation analyses: an experimental dataset based on gauge observations and satellite estimates. J Clim 16:2197–2214
Xue F, Zeng Q, Huang R et al (2015) Recent advances in monsoon studies in China. Adv Atmos Sci 32:206–229
Ye M, Chen H (2019) Recognition of two dominant modes of EASM and its thermal driving factors based on 25 monsoon indexes. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 12:278–285
Yu T, Feng J, Chen W et al (2022) Enhanced tropospheric biennial oscillation of the East Asian summer monsoon since the late 1970s. J Clim 35:1613–1628
Zhan Y, Ren G, Ren Y (2016) Start and end dates of rainy season and their temporal hange in recent decades over East Asia. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 94:41–53
Zhang R, Sumi A, Kimoto M (1996) Impact of El Nino on the East Asian monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 74:49–62
Zhong Z, Hu Y (2007) Impacts of tropical cyclones on the regional climate: An East Asian summer monsoon case. Atmos Sci Lett 8:93–99
Acknowledgements
We thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions, which had led to a significant improvement of the manuscript. This study is supported jointly by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41721004) and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2021M693134).
Funding
This study is supported jointly by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41721004) and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2021M693134).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Conceptualization: WC and LC; Methodology: PH and LC; Formal analysis and investigation: PH, LC, and XA; Writing—original draft preparation: LC; Writing—review and editing: SC, PH, and XA; Supervision: WC. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Chen, L., Chen, W., Hu, P. et al. Climatological characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon retreat based on observational analysis. Clim Dyn 60, 3023–3037 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06489-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06489-6