Abstract
Compared with total account of basin wide tropical cyclones (TC) genesis, the prevailing tracks of TC activity and its potential of landfall is more important for disaster prevention. Despite its relatively lower predictability, a hybrid statistical–dynamical model was developed based on the relationship between leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of Western North Pacific (WNP) TC track patterns and large scale environmental fields. Due to the significant difference in both variability and associated mechanisms on different time scale as revealed in previous studies, the temporal variations of three leading principal components (PCs) are separated into decadal and inter-annual component and forecasted respectively. Potential predictors for Multi-Linear Regression (MLR) model was selected through stepwise regression analysis based on the correlation maps between each components of leading PCs and environmental fields in both observations and Beijing Climate Center climate system model version 1.1 (BCC_CSM1.1) hindcast. The forecast map of anomalous WNP TC track density was obtained through weighted composite of forecasted leading PCs and EOF modes according to its explained variance. One-year-out cross validation test shows that the hybrid model well captures the inter-annual variations of WNP TC track patterns. The hybrid model also shows significant improvement of prediction skill compared with ENSO reference forecast, indicates its potential of application in operational prediction.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
In this study, the TC-best track dataset are downloaded from https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/zjljsjj_zlhq.html. The ERSSTv5 data are downloaded from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html, and the NCEP/NCAR-R1 reanalysis data are downloaded from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html.
References
Alessandri A, Borrelli A, Gualdi S, Scoccimarro E, Masina S (2011) Tropical cyclone count forecasting using a dynamical seasonal prediction system: sensitivity to improved ocean initialization. J Clim 24(12):2963–2982. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3585.1
Camargo SJ, Sobel AH (2005) Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J Clim 18(15):2996–2006. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3457.1
Camargo SJ, Zebiak SE (2002) Improving the detection and tracking of tropical storms in atmospheric general circulation models. Wea Forecasting 17(6):1152–1162. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2002)0172.0.CO;2
Camargo SJ, Robertson AW, Gaffney SJ, Smyth P, Ghil M (2007) Cluster analysis of typhoon tracks: part II: large-Scale circulation and ENSO. J Clim 20(14):3654–3676. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4203.1
Camp J, Roberts MJ, Comer RE, Wu P, MacLachlan C, Bett PE, Golding N, Toumi R, Chan JCL (2019) The western Pacific subtropical high and tropical cyclone landfall: seasonal forecasts using the Met Office GloSea5 system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 145(718):105–116. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3407
Camp J, Bett PE, Golding N, Hewitt CD, Mitchell TD, Scaife AA (2020) Verification of the 2019 GloSea5 Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Landfall Forecast for East China. J Meteorol Res 34(5):917–925. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-020-0043-5
Chan JCL (2005) Inter-annual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89(1):143–152. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0126-y
Choi W, Ho C-H, Kim J, Kim H-S, Feng S, Kang K (2016) A track pattern-based seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the North Atlantic. J Clim 29(2):481–494. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0407.1
Choi Y, Ha K-J, Jin F-F (2019) Seasonality and El Niño diversity in the relationship between ENSO and western North Pacific tropic cyclone activity. J Clim 32(23):8021–8045. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0736.1
Chu P-S, Zhao X, Ho C-H, Kim H-S, Lu M-M, Kim J-H (2010) Bayesian forecasting of seasonal typhoon activity: a track-pattern-oriented categorization approach for Taiwan. J Clim 23(24):6654–6668. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3710.1
Collins WD, Rasch PJ, Boville BA, Hack JJ, McCaa JR, Williamson DL, Briegleb BP, Bitz CM, Lin S-J, Zhang M (2006) The formulation and atmospheric simulation of the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3). J Clim 19(11):2144–2161. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3760.1
Fan K (2007) North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the western North Pacific typhoon frequency? Sci China Ser D 50(8):1251–1257. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-007-0076-y
Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 106(449):447–462. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710644905
Goh AZ-C, Chan JCL (2012) Variations and prediction of the annual number of tropical cyclone affecting Korea and Japan. Int J Climatol 32(2):178–189. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2258
Gray WM (1998) The formation of tropical cyclones. Meteorol Atmos Phys 67(1–4):37–69. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01277501
Gray WM, Landsea CW, Mielke PW, Berry K (1992) Predicting Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity 6–11 months in advance. Weather Forecasting 7(3):440–455. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1992)007%3c0440:PASHAM%3e2.0.CO;2
Griffies S, Gnanadesika A, Dixon KW, Dunne JP, Gerdes R, Harrison MJ, Rosati A, Russell JL, Samuels BL, Spelman MJ, Winton MRZ, Zhang R (2005) Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations. Ocean Sci 1(1):45–79. https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-2-165-2005
He C, Zhou T (2014) The two inter-annual variability modes of the western North Pacific subtropical high simulated by 28 CMIP5-AMIP models. Clim Dyn 43(9–10):2455–2469. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2068-x
He H, Yang J, Gong D, Mao R, Wang Y, Gao M (2015) Decadal changes in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific in the late 1990s. Clim Dyn 45(11):3317–3329. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2541-1
Ho C-H, Baik J-J, Kim J-J, Gong D-Y, Sui C-h (2004) Interdecadal changes in summertime typhoon tracks. J Climate 17(9):1767–1776. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3c1767:ICISTT%3e2.0.CO;2
Huang B, Thorne PW, Banzon VF, Boyer T, Chepurin G, Lawrimore JH, Menne MJ, Smith TM, Vose RS, Zhang H-M (2017) Extended Reconstructed sea surface temperature, version 5 (ERSSTv5): upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons. J Clim 30(20):8175–8205. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1
Huo L, Guo P, Hameed SN, Jin D (2015) The role of tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in modulating western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis. Geophys Res Lett 42(7):2378–2384. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063184
Ji J, Huang M, Li K (2008) Prediction of carbon exchanging between China terrestrial ecosystem and atmospheric in 21st century. Sci China Ser D 51(6):885–898. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-008-0039-y
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(3):437–472. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077%3c0437:TNYRP%3e2.0.CO;2
Kang H, Park C-K, Hameed SN, Ashok K (2009) Statistical downscaling of precipitation in Korea using multimodel output variables as predictors. Mon Weather Rev 137(6):1928–1939. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2706.1
Kim H-S, Ho C-H, Chu P-S, Kim J-H (2010a) Seasonal prediction of summertime tropical cyclone activity over the East China Sea using the least absolute deviation regression and the Poisson regression. Int J Climatol 30(2):210–219. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1878
Kim J-H, Ho C-H, Chu P-S (2010b) Dipolar redistribution of summertime tropical cyclone genesis between the Philippine Sea and northern South China Sea and its possible mechanisms. J Geophys Res 115(D06):D06104. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012196
Kim H-S, Ho C-H, Kim J-H, Chu P-S (2012) Track-pattern-based model for seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. J Clim 25(13):4660–4678. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00236.1
Kim O-Y, Kim H-m, Lee M-I, Min Y-M (2017) Dynamical-statistical seasonal prediction for western North Pacific typhoons based on APCC multi-models. Clim Dyn 48(1–2):71–88. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3063-1
Kim H-K, Seo K-H, Yeh S-W, Kang N, Moon B-K (2020) Asymmetric impact of Central Pacific ENSO on the reduction of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific since the late 1990s. Clim Dyn 54(5):661–673. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05020-8
Klotzbach P, Blake E, Camp J, Caron L-P, Chan JCL, Kang N-Y, Kuleshov Y, Lee S-M, Murakami H, Saunders M, Takaya Y, Vitart F, Zhan R (2019) Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasting. Trop Cyc Res Rev 8(3):134–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2019.10.003
Ko K-C, Liu J-H (2019) Impact of inter-annually varying background circulation on summertime wave pattern and tropical cyclone tracks in the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 53(3–4):2249–2263. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04823-z
Lander MA (1994) An exploratory analysis of the relationship between tropical storm formation in the western North Pacific and ENSO. Mon Weather Rev 122(4):636–651. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122,0636:AEAOTR.2.0.CO;2
Li T, Wang B, Wu B, Zhou T, Chang C-P, Zhang R (2017) Theories on formation of an anomalous anticyclone in western North Pacific during El Niño: a review. J Meteorol Res 31(6):987–1006. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-017-7147-6
Liu KS, Chan JCL (2008) Interdecadal variability of western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks. J Clim 21(17):4464–4476. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2207.1
Liu KS, Chan JCL (2012) Inter-annual variation of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone activity and seasonal forecast of tropical cyclone number in the Australian region. Int J Climatol 32(2):190–202. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2259
Liu KS, Chan JCL (2013) Inactive period of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 1998–2011. J Clim 26(8):2614–2630. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00053.1
Liu X, Wu T, Yang S, Jie W, Nie S, Li Q, Cheng Y, Liang X (2015) Performance of the seasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon by BCC_CSM1.1(m). Adv Atmos Sci 32(8):1156–1172. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-4194-8
Liu C, Zhang W, Geng X, Stuecker MF, Jin F-F (2019a) Modulation of tropical cyclones in the southeastern part of western North Pacific by tropical Pacific decadal variability. Clim Dyn 53(7–8):4475–4488. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04799-w
Liu C, Zhang W, Stuecker MF, Jin F-F (2019b) Pacific meridional mode-western North Pacific cyclone linkage explained by tropical Pacific quasi-decadal variability. Geophys Res Lett 46(22):13346–13354. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085340
Liu L, Wang Y, Zhan R, Xu J, Duan Y (2020) Increasing destructive potential of landfalling tropical cyclones over China. J Clim 33(9):3731–3743. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0451.1
Lu X, Yu H, Ying M, Zhao B, Zhang S, Lin L, Bai L, Wan R (2021) Western North Pacific tropical cyclone database created by the China Meteorological Administration. Adv Atmos Sci 38(4):690–699. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-0211-7
Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78(6):1069–1080. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078%3c1069:APICOW%3e2.0.CO;2
Mei W, Xie S-P, Zhao M, Wang Y (2015) Forced and internal variability of tropical cyclone track density in the western North Pacific. J Clim 28(1):143–167. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00164.1
Newman M, Alexander MA, Alut TR, Cobb KM, Deser C, Lorenzo ED, Mantua NJ, Miller AJ, Minobe S, Nakamura H, Schneider N, Vimont DJ, Phillips AS, Scott JD, Smith CA (2016) The Pacific decadal Oscillation. Revisited J Clim 29(12):4399–4427. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1
North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF, Moeng FJ (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Weather Rev 110(7):699–706. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-93(1982)110%3c0699:SEITEO%3e2.0.CO;2
Park D-S, Ho C-H, Kim J-H, Kim H-S (2011) Strong landfall typhoons in Korea and Japan in a recent decade. J Geophys Res 116(D7):D07105. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014801
Park D-SR, Ho C-H, Kim J-H (2014) Growing threat of intense tropical cyclones to East Asia over the period 1977–2010. Environ Res Lett 9(1):014008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/1/014008
Patricola CM, Camargo SJ, Klotzbach PJ, Saravanan R, Chang P (2018) The influence of ENSO flavors on western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. J Clim 31(14):5395–5416. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1
Ren H, Wang R, Zhai P, Ding Y, Lu B (2017) Upper-ocean dynamical features and prediction of the super El Niño in 2015/16: a comparison with the cases in 1982/83 and 1997/98. J Meteorol Res 31(2):278–294. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-017-6194-3
Ren H-L, Lu B, Wan J, Tian B, Zhang P (2018) Identification standard for ENSO events and its application to climate monitoring and prediction in China. J Meteorol Res 32(6):923–936. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-018-8078-6
Song J, Klotzbach PJ, Duan Y (2021) Statistical linkage between coastal El Niño-Southern Oscillation and tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific. Atmos Sci Lett 23(2):e1071. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1071
Sun Y, Zhong Z, Li T, Yi L, Shi J, Shen Y, Liu K, Hu Y, Xu Z (2020) Superiority of Mega-ENSO index in the seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Earth Space Sci 7(5):e2019EA001009. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA001009
Tang S, Luo J-J, Chen L, Yu Y (2022) Distinct evolution of the SST anomalies in the far eastern Pacific between the 1997/98 and 2015/16 extreme El Niños. Adv Atmos Sci 39(6):927–942. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1263-z
Vitart F, Anderson JL, Stern WF (1997) Simulation of inter-annual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of GCM integrations. J Clim 10(4):745–760. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010%3c0745:SOIVOT%3e2.0.CO;2
von Storch H, Zwiers W (1999) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Wang B, Chan JCL (2002) How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. J Clim 15(13):1643–1658. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3c1643:HSEEAT%3e2.0.CO;2
Wang S, Toumi R (2021) Recent migration of tropical cyclones towards coasts. Science 371(6528):514–517. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb9038
Wang C, Wang B (2019) Tropical cyclone predictability shaped by western Pacific subtropical high: integration of trans-basin sea surface temperature effects. Clim Dyn 53(5–6):2697–2714. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04651-1
Wang H, Sun J, Fan K (2007) Relationship between North Pacific Oscillation and the typhoon and hurricane frequency. Sci China Ser D 50(9):1409–1416. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-007-0097-6
Wang B, Xiang B, Lee J-Y (2013a) Subtropical High predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110(8):2718–2722. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1214626110
Wang C, Li C, Mu M, Duan W (2013b) Seasonal modulations of different impacts of two types of ENSO events on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 40(11–12):2887–2902. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1434-9
Wang C, Wang B, Wu L (2019) A region-dependent seasonal forecasting framework for tropical cyclone genesis frequency in the western North Pacific. J Clim 32(23):8415–8435. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCL-D-19-0006.1
Winton M (2000) A reformulated three-layer sea ice models. J Atmos Ocean Tech 17(4):525–531. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2000)0172.0.CO;2
Wu L, Wang B, Geng S (2005) Growing typhoon influence on East Asia. Geophy Res Lett 32(18):L18703. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022937
Wu T, Li W, Ji J, Xin X, Li L, Wang Z, Zhang Y, Li J, Zhang F, Wei M, Shi X, Wu F, Zhang L, Chu M, Jie W, Liu Y, Wang F, Liu X, Li Q, Dong M, Liang X, Gao Y, Zhang J (2013) Global carbon budgets simulated by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model for the last century. J Geophys Res 118(10):4326–4347. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50320
Wu T, Song L, Li W, Wang Z, Zhang H, Xin X, Zhang Y, Zhang L, Li J, Wu F, Liu Y, Zhang F, Shi X, Chu M, Zhang J, Fang Y, Wang F, Lu Y, Liu X, Wei M, Liu Q, Zhou W, Dong M, Zhao Q, Ji J, Li L, Zhou M (2014) An overview of BCC climate system model development and application for climate change studies. J Meteorol Res 28(1):34–56. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-014-3041-7
Wu L, Wang C, Wang B (2015) Westward shift of western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis. Geophy Res Lett 42(5):1537–1542. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063450
Wu L, Zhang H, Chen J-M, Feng T (2018) Impact of two types of El Niño on tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific: Sensitivity to location and intensity of Pacific warming. J Clim 31(5):1725–1742. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0298.1
Wu Q, Zhao J, Zhan R, Gao J (2021a) Revisiting the inter-annual impact of the Pacific Meridional Mode on tropical cyclone genesis frequency in the Western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 56(14):1003–1015. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05515-9
Wu T, Yu R, Lu Y, Jie W, Fang Y, Zhang J, Zhang L, Xin X, Li L, Wang Z, Liu Y, Zhang F, Wu F, Chu M, Li J, Li W, Zhang Y, Shi X, Zhou W, Yao J, Liu X, Zhao H, Yan J, Wei M, Xue W, Huang A, Zhang Y, Zhang Y, Shu Q, Hu A (2021b) BCC-CSM2-HR: a high-resolution version of the Beijing Climate Center climate system model. Geosci Mod Dev 14(5):2977–3006. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2977-2021
Yang L, Chen S, Wang C, Wang D, Wang X (2018) Potential impact of the Pacific decadal oscillation and sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean-western Pacific on the variability of typhoon landfall on the China coast. Clim Dyn 51(7–8):2695–2705. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4037-7
Ye M, Wu J, Wang C, He X (2019) Historical and future changes in asset value and GDP in area exposed to tropical cyclones in China. Wea Clim Soc 11(2):307–319. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0053.1
Ying M, Zhang W, Yu H, Liu X, Feng J, Fan Y, Zhu Y, Chen D (2014) An overview of the China Meteorological Administration tropical cyclone database. J Atmos Ocean Technol 31(2):287–301. https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-12-00119.1
Yonekura E, Hall TM (2014) ENSO effect on East Asian tropical cyclone landfall via changes in tracks and genesis in a statistical model. J Appl Meteor Climatol 53(2):406–420. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0240.1
Yu J, Li T, Tan Z-M, Zhu Z (2016) Effects of tropical North Atlantic SST on tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 46(3–4):865–877. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2618-x
Zhan R, Wang Y (2016) CFSv2-based statistical prediction for seasonal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) over the western North Pacific. J Clim 29(2):525–541. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0059.1
Zhan R, Wang Y, Ying M (2012) Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific: a review. Trop Cyc Res Rev 1(3):307–324. https://doi.org/10.6057/2012TCRR03.07
Zhang Q, Wu L, Liu Q (2009) Tropical cyclone damage in China 1983–2006. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90(4):489–496. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2631.1
Zhang W, Vecchi GA, Murakami H, Villarini G, Jia L (2016) The Pacific meridional mode and the occurrence of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. J Clim 29(1):381–398. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0282.1
Zhang D, Martin GM, Rodríguez JM, Ke Z, Chen L (2020a) Predictability of western pacific subtropical high associated with different ENSO phases by GloSea5. J Meteorol Res 34(5):926–940. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-020-0055-1
Zhang H, Wu L, Huang R, Chen J-M, Feng T (2020b) Does the Pacific meridional mode dominantly affect tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific? Clim Dyn 55(11–12):3469–3483. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05457-2
Zhao H, Wu L (2014) Inter-decadal shift of the prevailing tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific and its mechanism study. Meteorol Atmos Phys 125(1–2):89–101. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-014-0322-8
Zhao H, Wu L, Zhou W (2010) Assessing the influence of the ENSO on tropical cyclone prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific. Adv Atmos Sci 27(6):1361–1371. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-010-9161-9
Zhao H, Zhang J, Klotzbach PJ, Chen S (2019) Recent increased co-variability of tropical cyclogenesis latitude and longitude over the western North Pacific during the extended boreal summer. J Clim 32(23):8167–8179. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0009.1
Zhao H, Klotzbach PJ, Chen S (2020) Dominant influence of ENSO-like and global sea surface temperature patterns on changes in prevailing boreal summer tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific. J Clim 33(22):9551–9565. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0774.1
Zhao K, Zhao H, Raga GB, Yoshida R, Wang W, Klotzbach PJ (2021) Changes in extended boreal summer tropical cyclogenesis associated with large-scale flow patterns over the western North Pacific in response to the global warming hiatus. Clim Dyn 56(1):515–535. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05486-x
Acknowledgements
This research was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Project of China (2017YFC1502303), the National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring, Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster (2018YFC1506000), the State Key Program of the National Natural Science of China (41730964), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41975091, 42175047). The authors wish to thank the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their constructive and insightful suggestions, and STI/CMA for offering the TC-best track dataset, Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of CMA for offering the BCC_CSM1.1 model data, and NOAA/PSL for offering ERSSTv5 and NCEP/NCAR-R1 data.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest or competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Zhang, D., Chen, L. Hybrid statistical–dynamical seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone track density over Western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 60, 2517–2532 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06462-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06462-3