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Colonial Legacies, Ethnicity and Fertility Decline in Kenya: What has Financial Inclusion Got to Do with It?

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Abstract

Kenya has seen unprecedented declines in fertility from the late 1970s, which stalled during the decade from the mid-1990s, only to resume in the early 2000s when Kenya experienced rapid growth in financial inclusion. In this paper, we do not intend to make causal explanations of these phenomena; instead, we explore what may be sensible to adduce from relationships between fertility and financial inclusion. The Kenyan context presents some unique challenges to establish such connections; regional geographic and ethnic differences, spatial and temporal uneven economic growth, diverse legacies of colonialism, all of which may have affected how fertility trends and financial inclusion activities played out. We find that while modernisation variables such as urbanisation, education, wealth and employment are convincingly related to lower fertility levels, there is little plausible evidence of a role for financial inclusion. More plausible explanations may be found in the country’s colonial history, ethnic identities and post-independence politics.

Résumé

Le Kenya a connu une baisse sans précédent de la fécondité à partir de la fin des années 1970, puis une stagnation d’une décennie à partir du milieu des années 1990. La fécondité a repris au début des années 2000 lorsque le Kenya a connu une croissance rapide de l'inclusion financière. Dans cet article, nous n'avons pas l'intention de fournir d’explications sur les causes de ces phénomènes ; nous explorons plutôt ce qu'il peut être judicieux de déduire sur la question des relations entre la fécondité et l'inclusion financière. Le contexte kenyan présente des défis uniques pour établir de telles connexions ; des disparités géographiques et ethniques régionales, une croissance économique inégale dans l'espace et dans le temps, les divers héritages du colonialisme, qui peuvent tous avoir affecté la façon dont les tendances de la fécondité et les activités d'inclusion financière se sont déroulées. Nous constatons que si des variables de modernisation telles que l'urbanisation, l'éducation, la richesse et l'emploi sont liées de manière convaincante à des niveaux de fécondité plus faibles, il existe peu de preuves plausibles que l'inclusion financière ait joué un tel rôle. L'histoire coloniale du pays, les identités ethniques et la politique post-indépendance fournissent des explications plus plausibles.

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Fig. 1

Source World Development Indicators, 1960–2017. Notes: A 10-year moving averages trendline for GDP per capita growth in annual % has been added

Fig. 2

Source KeDHS, authors estimates. TFR estimated for the previous 15 years unmet need DHS definition estimated with survey weights

Fig. 3

Source Authors calculations. WFS, 1977–1978 and KeDHS, 1989–2014, Financial Sector Deepening database

Fig. 4

Source Authors calculations. WFS 1977–1978, KeDHS 1989–2014, for the 15 years prior to survey

Fig. 5

Source Adapted from Bongaarts (1978; 1984)

Fig. 6

Source Authors calculations. WFS 1977–1978, KeDHS 1989–2014. Children under 5 mortality rate (U5MR) is used

Fig. 7

Source Authors calculations. WFS 1977–1978, KeDHS 1989—2014. Notes: No data for wealth available for 1978

Fig. 8

Source Authors calculations using tfr2 from WFS 1977–1978, KeDHS 1989–2014

Fig. 9

Source Authors calculations. WFS, 1977–1978 and KeDHS, 1989–2014

Fig. 10

Source Authors calculations. WFS, 1977–1978 and KeDHS, 1989–2014

Fig. 11

Source Authors calculations. WFS 1977–1978, KeDHS 1989–2014

Fig. 12

Source Authors calculations. Notes: Orange dotted line = Railways; Red solid line = Boundaries of White Highlands; Black dots = Towns in 1962

Fig. 13

Source Financial Sector Deepening database and authors calculations

Fig. 14

Source Financial Sector Deepening database and authors calculations

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Data Availability

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available at The DHS Program—Data which provides access to unrestricted survey data at no cost upon registration. The FinAccess we draw on is also openly available at https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/finaccesshousehold at no cost.

Notes

  1. UN population projections suggest that the population of SSA will be more than twice that of China and other East and South-east Asian countries in 2100 (https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/, accessed 11/3/2020; https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020/03/26/africas-population-will-double-by-2050, accessed 30/3/2020).

  2. Though Kenya formally adopted a family planning policy in 1967, the policy was not actually implemented until the early 1980s (Crichton 2008; Hartmann 1995).

  3. See especially the literature on South Asia (e.g. Amin et al. 1995; Amin and Ahmed 1996; Schuler et al. 1997).

  4. E.g. based on experimental or quasi-experimental quantitative analysis (see Deaton and Cartwright 2018 and others).

  5. According to the Polity IV Kenya index (http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/ken2.htm).

  6. See Duvendack and Palmer-Jones (2017), for a similar argument for Bangladesh.

  7. KeDHS 1989, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2008 & 2014; WFS 1977–1978; Kenya Census 1962 and 1999; FinAccess surveys 2006, 2009, 2013, 2016 and 2018.

  8. E.g. Basu and Koolwal (2005) for India and Story and Burgard (2012), Balk (1994) for Bangladesh.

  9. The questions on acceptability and decision making are particularly likely to invoke normative responses, and are asked at the same point in the questionnaire; hence it is not surprising that they emerge as factors in principal component analysis, multiple correspondence analysis or factor analysis.

  10. The WFS 1977–1978 does not contain information on which to calculate a wealth index. KeDHS do not report wealth indexes for 1989 to 1998, for which surveys we compute asset indexes based on multiple classification scores (in preference to principal components scores) using the household assets reported in those surveys.

  11. Variables reflecting employment are not well conceptualised in the KeDHS; this is partly because much employment of females is on household or own account farming or gathering, and none of the relevant variables seems to reflect a sharp divide between women predominantly involved in these types of work and those who may be involved in “empowering” types of employment—for wages and or in the formal sector.

  12. Unlike Jedwab et al. (2017), we cannot identify these effects since the data do not allow us to construct a pseudo-panel of fertility by location over an extended period.

  13. We classify the ethnic groups reported in WFS and KeDHS along conventional ethno-linguistic lines distinguishing Bantu (sub-set into the Kikuyu as the nationally most numerous, other Western, and Eastern Bantu, Nilotic (merging Eastern, Southern and Western groups), and Cushitic categories (Greenberg 1948).

  14. Official KeDHS reports of fertility stalling in Kenya only report ethnic differences in desire for more children by ethnic group.

  15. There are insufficient numbers of Cushitic in the surveys up to 2003 for meaningful estimates of fertility.

  16. Quoted in Kokole (1994).

  17. for Kikuyu this variable is 1 between 1963—1978 and 2003—2014, 0 otherwise; for Nilotic it is 1 between 1979 and 2002.

  18. Democracy takes the value 1 1963-1969 and 2003—2014. In both cases 0 otherwise. The regime is classified as autocratic between 1969 and 1992. This periodisation is the same as in Burgess et al. (2015).

  19. It was initially built to provide military access to Lake Victoria, seen as a key to imperial interests; it so happened that the route passed through or near areas which would become of agricultural interest to settlers, partly through deliberate colonial policies aimed to make the railways pay. The thrust of Jedwab et al. (2017) is that towns set up to support and administer first the initial colonial railway and then settler interests had lasting effects on the pattern of urbanisation.

  20. Further results from the authors.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge, without implication, funding by the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under a research grant, ESRC Reference: ES/N013344/2, on ‘Delivering inclusive financial development and growth’.

Funding

Funding was provided by ESRC National Centre for Research Methods, University of Southampton (ES/N013344/2).

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  1. School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

    Maren Duvendack

  2. School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

    Richard Palmer-Jones

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Duvendack, M., Palmer-Jones, R. Colonial Legacies, Ethnicity and Fertility Decline in Kenya: What has Financial Inclusion Got to Do with It?. Eur J Dev Res 35, 1028–1058 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-022-00557-7

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