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Application of survival model to reveal influential objective and subjective variables to educate old metropolitan area residents in trading lands for housings: case of Tehran

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Abstract

Deteriorated land-uses constitute vast portions of the metropolitan areas, being small lots of land, hardly accessible, structurally unstable, and extremely vulnerable to moderate earthquakes. We present the results of a stated preference survey done to support the viability of administering a novel tri-lateral Public–Private Partnership of Build-Operate-Transfer type proposal of Government (G)-Residents (R)-Private Sector Investors (P). In this proposal, the (low income) R in a zone trade their lands for an equivalent value of safe housing built by P next to a newly constructed Bus Rapid Transit line built by G in the same zone, thus a Transit-Oriented Development. P, in return, receives permission from G to build an equivalent value of commercial buildings on the R’s land premises, of the types that the area has long been deprived of. P may operate this complex for a concession period, which will then be transferred to G. This study collected 882 well-responded questionnaires filled by trained personnel at the R’s premises. A Hazard model approach is used to model the trade-off rate of land for apartment floor area. The results show that in addition to the conventional objective variables (family size, income level, etc.), subjective variables (attitudes toward G’s role, Transportation, and current situation Satisfaction) are also very important in settling for a trade-off level. These findings lead to devise policies that increase public awareness about their rights and responsibilities to back the proposal by asking for reasonable trade-off rates, make the plan feasible and rescue themselves from the eminent earthquake danger.

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Data availability

The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request for transparency purposes.

Code availability

SPSS & STATA software were applied.

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Acknowledgements

This research has been supported, in part, by the Center for Infrastructure Sustainability and Resiliency Research of Sharif University of Technology.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

    Hojjatollah Soleimani

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Institute for Transportation Studies and Research, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

    Hossain Poorzahedy

Authors
  1. Hojjatollah Soleimani
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  2. Hossain Poorzahedy
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Contributions

HS contributed to conceptualization; survey management; data acquisition; formal analysis; investigation; methodology; project administration; software; validation; writing—original draft. HP contributed to conceptualization; formal analysis; funding acquisition; investigation; methodology; project administration; resources; supervision; validation; visualization; writing—review and editing.

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Correspondence to Hossain Poorzahedy.

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This paper is an original unpublished work of the authors, not under considerations for publication elsewhere. All ethical and anonymity considerations are observed in data collection and use. There is no prohibited information in the content of this paper.

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Appendix 1 Questionnaire designed for this study

Appendix 1 Questionnaire designed for this study

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Soleimani, H., Poorzahedy, H. Application of survival model to reveal influential objective and subjective variables to educate old metropolitan area residents in trading lands for housings: case of Tehran. J Hous and the Built Environ 38, 577–606 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-022-09958-w

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