Understanding implications of climate change and socio-economic development for the water-energy-food nexus: A meta-regression analysis

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107693Get rights and content

Highlights

  • Effects of climate change and socio-economic on WEFN were evaluated using meta-analysis.

  • For every 1 ℃ increase in average temperature, food yield will decrease by 1.6%.

  • Electricity generation is positively correlated with population and GDP growth.

  • Future WEFN’s challenges and the adaptation strategies are proposed.

  • The application of meta-analysis increased the reliability of research results.

Abstract

In recent years, the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development on the water-energy-food nexus have been a hot topic. Forecasting future food and energy production and water withdrawal trends under a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios is a critical step for formulating agricultural, industrial, and environmental policy. However, published studies are imprecise due to the complexity of the changeable environment and nexus system. Here we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis based on 97 studies (1253 observations) published before September 2021 to evaluate the effects of climate change factors on food yield and irrigation water, as well as the influence of socioeconomic development on energy production and water withdrawal. The study shows that the most serious impact of climate change on food yield occurred under the RCP8.5 scenario, with an average decrease of 1.73%, 4.17% and 4.56% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Similar to the prediction of food yield, the irrigation water requirement of food production under the influence of climate change in the RCP8.5 scenario (12.22–18.01%) is higher than that in RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. Under the five socio-economic future scenarios, the average energy generation is projected to increase from 77.41 EJ (2010) to 334.11 EJ (2100). Water withdrawals for electricity generation range from 347 km3 (SSP1) to 1263 km3 (SSP5). Population and GDP were significantly and positively correlated with power generation and water withdrawal (P < 0.001). To some extent, increases in CO2 concentration and precipitation could compensate for the negative impact of rising temperatures on food yield. Climate change, as well as economic and social growth, will provide substantial challenges to the future water-energy-food nexus. In particular, the water resource risk at its core will create significant uncertainty in the future water-energy-food nexus. To ensure the security and stability of the nexus, we advocate for quick adoption of innovative technologies as well as a multi-sectoral, coordinated strategy for adaptation. We believe that the findings of this paper will provide effective and reliable data support for future policy formulation.

Introduction

Global water, energy, and nexus (WEFN) are highly interconnected (Wichelns, 2017). Nexus is driven and constrained by both climate change and socio-economic development (Bhaduri et al., 2015, Biggs et al., 2015). Population growth, urbanization and economic development have aggravated the shortage of global nexus resources. It is expected that by 2050, the global demand for food and energy will increase by 60% and 80%, respectively (Ferroukhi et al., 2015). More critically, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI, 2015) pointed out that "available water" was the core element of the "nexus". Climate change has greatly affected the availability of water resources, which has become a critical constraint for food and energy production. It is estimated that climate change and water shortages will leave 120 million people undernourished (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007). In addition to water constraints, the energy system is also driven by population, economic growth and structural change. Therefore, to ensure WEFN security and mitigate the impact of uncertainties such as climate change and population expansion, we need to further explore the following three questions: (1) How will climate change affect food yields and irrigation water in the future? (2) What is the response of energy production and water withdrawal to economic society? (3) What are the key drivers the WEFN faces in a changing environment?

Studies have quantified the impact of future climate change on food yields and irrigation water, and a variety of methods have been applied. Among them, crop models were the most widely used (Araya et al., 2015, Chenu et al., 2017). Compared with other methods, crop models can effectively simulate the physiological process of crop production at each development stage and evaluate the changing trend of crops under climate change scenarios. But in fact, discrepancies in scenarios, study areas and methods contributed to the variability of the existing research findings. The distinction is not only numerical but also in opposite directions. A global assessment has found that food yields will increase in the future (Tian et al., 2021). However, Deryng et al. (2011) stated that future climate change might diminish yields. Some studies in North America anticipated that yields would fall in Mexico (Kai, 2018), Oklahoma (Rasoulzadeh Gharibdousti et al., 2019) and Canada (Brassard and Singh, 2007). But several other studies in Mexico (Murray-Tortarolo et al., 2018), the United States (Johnston et al., 2015) and Canada (Qian et al., 2016) have forecast an increase in food yields. Food irrigation water use is expected to grow in China (Zhao et al., 2014) and Iran (Ahmadi et al., 2021) as a result of climate change, while another study in the United States predicted a decrease in water use (Johnston et al., 2015). The same is true for energy production projections. Taking electricity generation as an example, while scholars predict that electricity generation and water withdrawal will increase under various SSPs scenarios, the values of different studies fluctuate significantly. For example, Graham et al. (2018) anticipated 950 km3 of water withdrawal for electricity generation under the SSP5 scenario by 2100, while another study predicted 1942 km3 (Ando et al., 2017).

Despite the fact that studies have predicted the effects of climate change and socio-economic factors on the WEFN or the nexus subsystem, the disparities in prediction results create challenges for decision-makers to pick a choice. Given the increasing concerns about the security of the WEFN. This study intends to standardize the impacts of uncertain elements (climate change and socio-economic factors) on prediction results by constructing a meta-regression model, as well as explain the causes for the disparities in prediction results. Meta-regression analysis (MRA) is a valuable method for summarizing results and assessing consensus in the literature (Stanley and Jarrell, 2005, Thompson and Higgins, 2002). It emerged from meta-analysis and remains primarily a regression analysis method, but its strength is in its capacity to systematically explain a complex set of underlying factors that may influence dependent variables (Loomis and White, 1996). Therefore, MRA can recount the results of multiple studies on the same research topic and identify the sources of heterogeneity (Baker et al., 2009, Gurevitch et al., 2018). Meanwhile, the application of MRA can avoid some of the deviations in the original literature. While similar studies are being conducted to assess the impact of climate change on crop yield (Wilcox and Makowski, 2014), food demand (van Dijk et al., 2021), crop water efficiency (Fan et al., 2018) and energy demand (Menegaki, 2014). There have been few studies on MRA from the perspective of WEFN, especially the comprehensive influence of climate change and socioeconomic factors on WEFN.

In the framework of MRA, this study attempts to synthesize peer-reviewed findings. Food yields, irrigation water, energy production, and water withdrawal were forecasted under changing environmental conditions. The implications of climate change and socio-economic development were also considered. In this paper, potential future WEFN challenges and corresponding countermeasures are proposed to provide support for ensuring WEFN collaboration security.

Section snippets

Literature identifying and screening

To select relevant studies on future global food (grain), energy (electricity) production and water use projections, we identify review questions, search strategies and inclusion/exclusion criteria following the systematic review guidelines developed by EPI-Centre. We asked: What are the global trends in food and energy production, as well as water use, up to the year 2100? What are the driving elements influencing their evolution? Based on the above questions, this study combined two search

Overview of studies

We ultimately selected 97 publications for meta-analysis. The number of studies has increased dramatically during the last 20 years, and related research has been expanded (Fig. S1). Especially after 2014, the issues of "food security", "energy security" and "water shortage" have attracted people's attention, triggering academics to debate future food yields, energy production and water use (Fig. 2). Most studies used models to simulate the future water-energy-food change trend, and the DSSAT

Challenges of water, food, and energy security

Climate change, economic and social pressures on WEFN are compounding. Food production is often constrained by climate change, natural disasters, soil and water. According to the IPCC (2007), the impact of climate change on food production will worsen in the coming decades. Our study also found that food yield is declining as a result of climate change. At the demand level, population increase, urbanization, changes in dietary structure and consumption levels can all contribute to food

Conclusions

Based on meta-regression approaches, this study quantifies the changes in food, energy production and water withdrawal under climate change and socio-economic development scenarios, as well as the implications of climate, socio-economic, and other uncertainties. The findings are indicative and illustrative for the future. This can indicate the direction and magnitude of the impact of climate change and economic development on the WEFN and improve the accuracy of decision-makers in formulating

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Xinxueqi Han: Conceptualization, Data curation, Methodology, Formal analysis, Visualization, Writing – original draft. En Hua: Data curation, Formal analysis, Visualization. Bernie A Engel: Writing – review & editing, Data curation. Jiajie Guan: Formal analysis, Visualization. Jieling Yin: Methodology, Formal analysis. Nan Wu: Methodology. Shikun Sun: Writing – review & editing. Yubao Wang: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing – review & editing, Supervision.

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgments

This work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41871207, 41961124006) and the 111 Project (No. B12007).

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