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Predictive Validity of Adolescent Callous-Unemotional Traits and Conduct Problems with Respect to Adult Outcomes: High- and Low-Risk Samples

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Abstract

Current understanding of the predictive validity of callous-unemotional (CU) traits is limited by (a) the focus on externalizing psychopathology and antisocial behaviors, (b) a lack of long-term prospective longitudinal data, (c) samples comprised of high-risk or low-risk individuals. We tested whether adolescent CU traits and conduct problems were associated with theoretically relevant adult outcomes 12–18 years later. Participants were drawn from two studies: higher-risk Fast Track (FT; n = 754) and lower-risk Child Development Project (CDP; n = 585). FT: conduct problems positively predicted externalizing and internalizing psychopathology and partner violence, and negatively predicted health, wellbeing, and education. Three conduct problems × CU traits interaction effects were also found. CDP: CU traits positively predicted depression and negatively predicted health and education; conduct problems positively predicted externalizing and internalizing psychopathology and substance use, and negatively predicted wellbeing. CU traits did not provide incremental predictive validity for multiple adult outcomes relative to conduct problems.

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Notes

  1. In the present study, we used mean scores on the Antisocial Process Screening Device [64] to be consistent with other studies using these samples. However, most other research using this measure reports sum scores. When we convert our mean scores into sum scores, we find the following for each of our samples: FT: M = 3.74, SD = 2.20; CDP: M = 2.99, SD = 1.75, which are consistent with other studies. For example, in a sample of community adolescents (M = 13.40 years), Muñoz and Frick [85] found similar sum scores to the CDP sample and lower than the FT sample across three time points approximately 1 year apart (M = 2.41–2.70; SD = 1.94–2.05). Comparably, in another sample of community adolescents (aged 12–14 years), Shaffer et al. [86] found similar self-reported sum scores (M = 2.95, SD = 1.74).

  2. Although CDP also has parent-report information for conduct problems, we elected to use self-report to align with our measure of CU traits (i.e., CDP only has self-report information for CU traits).

  3. Items with content overlap include Antisocial Process Screening Device [65] ‘feel bad when do something wrong’, reverse coded, for CU traits, and CBCL [62] ‘doesn’t feel guilty about misbehavior’ for conduct problems.

  4. We also repeated analyses with Adult Self-Report [68] continuous aggressive behavior, delinquency/rule-breaking, attention problems, anxious/depressed, withdrawn, and somatic complaints narrowband scales (see Supplementary Table S7). Without Bonferroni correction, for FT, CU traits did not predict any outcome and conduct problems predicted every outcome. For CDP, CU traits predicted aggressive behavior, attention problems, anxious/depressed, and withdrawn scores. Conduct problems predicted every outcome.

  5. We also repeated analyses with just the final time points, i.e., age 32 for FT and 34 for CDP. Without Bonferroni correction, many significant effects remained the same. For FT, CU traits negatively predicted high school graduation (OR = 0.43). There were no other significant effects for CU traits. Conduct problems positively predicted externalizing (β = 0.22) and internalizing (β = 0.14) psychopathology, as well as endorsement of clinical levels of ASPD (OR = 1.38), depression (OR = 1.43), and avoidant personality (OR = 1.48); and negatively predicted the general health index (β = − 0.13), happiness (β = − 0.12), high school graduation (OR = 0.74), and college completion (OR = 0.45). For CDP, CU traits positively predicted internalizing psychopathology (β = 0.16) and endorsement of clinical levels of depression (OR = 5.80), and negatively predicted happiness (β = − 0.13), strength (β = − 0.12) and college completion (OR = 0.23). Conduct problems positively predicted externalizing (β = 0.42) and internalizing (β = 0.21) psychopathology; endorsement of clinical levels of ASPD (OR = 2.40), ADHD (OR = 3.18), anxiety (OR = 1.93), depression (OR = 1.79), avoidant personality (OR = 2.02), binge drinking (OR = 2.04), and partner violence (β = 0.17). Conduct problems negatively predicted the general health index (β = − 0.13) and happiness (β = − 0.20).

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Funding

The Fast Track project has been supported by National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) Grants R18MH48043, R18MH50951, R18MH50952, R18MH50953, R01MH062988, K05MH00797, and K05MH01027; National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) Grants R01DA016903, K05DA15226, RC1DA028248, and P30DA023026; National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Grant R01HD093651; and Department of Education Grant S184U30002. The Center for Substance Abuse Prevention also provided support through a memorandum of agreement with the NIMH. Additional support for this study was provided by a B.C. Children’s Hospital Research Institute Investigator Grant Award and a Canada Foundation for Innovation Award to Robert J. McMahon. The Child Development Project has been funded by grants MH56961, MH57024, and MH57095 from the National Institute of Mental Health, HD30572 from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, and DA016903 from the National Institute on Drug Abuse.

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Goulter, N., Oberth, C., McMahon, R.J. et al. Predictive Validity of Adolescent Callous-Unemotional Traits and Conduct Problems with Respect to Adult Outcomes: High- and Low-Risk Samples. Child Psychiatry Hum Dev 54, 1321–1335 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10578-022-01334-7

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