Are gun ownership rates and regulations associated with firearm incidents in American schools? A forty-year analysis (1980–2019)

Highlights

• School firearm incidents ranged between 20 and 40 incidents before skyrocketing to over 100 incidents in 2018 and 2019.

• Findings were mixed on the relationship between state gun ownership rates and school firearm incidents.

• Gun regulations exhibited weak and inconsistent associations with school firearm incidents and injured/killed victims.

• Future research may be needed to explore holistic approaches to addressing the problem of gun violence in American schools.

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the relationship between state gun ownership rates and school firearm incidents (n = 1275) and injured/killed victims (n = 2026) of these incidents over a forty-year period (1980–2019). It also investigates whether child access prevention, minimum age requirements for gun purchases, and mandatory gun safety training laws are associated with fewer school firearm incidents and injured/killed victims.

Methods

Data were linked together from the School Shootings Database, State Firearm Law Database, the National Center for Education Statistics, and the US Census Bureau. State fixed effects and interrupted time series analyses were performed.

Results

State gun ownership rates declined between 1980 and 2019 while school firearm incidents generally ranged between 20 and 40 incidents before skyrocketing to 102 incidents in 2018 and 110 incidents in 2019. Findings were mixed on the relationship between state gun ownership rates and school firearm incidents and injured/killed victims. Additionally, child access prevention, minimum age requirements for gun purchases, and mandatory gun safety training laws exhibited weak and inconsistent relationships with school firearm incidents.

Discussion

Although access to firearms plays an undeniable role in school shootings, it remains unclear what policies are needed to reduce these incidents. Future research may be needed to explore holistic approaches to addressing this problem.

Introduction

School shootings have become a pressing concern for the American public education system. In the United States, the number of shootings on school grounds is consistently higher than that of any other country in the world (Hahn et al., 2005). While many gun incidents in US schools do not lead to injury or death, a non-trivial number of devastating mass shootings occurring in the past decade have resulted in substantial numbers of victims and ignited intense gun control debates. One of these highly distressing incidents was in 2012 when a 20-year old with a history of mental health problems murdered six adults and twenty children between the ages of six and seven in a mass shooting at an elementary school in Connecticut (Langman, 2015). More recently in 2018, national attention became refocused on gun control after a 19-year old assailant killed fourteen students and four school staff at a high school in Florida where he had been previously expelled (Aslett, Webb Williams, Casas, Zuidema, & Wilkerson, 2020). Loss of life and psychological trauma are directly observable ramifications for schools and communities that experience a school shooting. The traumatic effects of these incidents also appear to extend beyond the location of the shooting itself, inflicting damage on the psyche, confidence, and wellbeing of the broader public (Collins, 2014; Newman, Fox, Harding, Mehta, & Roth, 2005).

Public outcry after major school shootings has spurred varying proposals for action from federal, state, and local officials (Schildkraut & Hernandez, 2014). While policy recommendations have ranged from arming teachers to strengthening mental health supports for troubled youth, gun control has been at the forefront of disputes over how to prevent school shootings (Rajan & Branas, 2018). Many states have enacted gun safety legislation following rampage-style school shootings (Schell, Cefalu, Griffin, Smart, & Morral, 2020). The main rationale for enhanced gun control is straightforward. The United States has both the highest rate of gun ownership and the greatest number of school shooting incidents in the developed world. Proponents of strong legal restrictions on firearms argue that these patterns demonstrate that guns are too accessible to those with mental health issues and a history of violence, making school shootings an inevitable consequence. Yet, opponents claim that gun prevalence is a response to existing crime and violence, and that restrictive gun laws violate the right to bear arms enshrined in the US Constitution by preventing law abiding citizens from owning guns (Stolzenberg & D'alessio, 2000).

In the empirical literature, many researchers have estimated correlational associations between gun ownership rates and general crime and violence, but this work is inconclusive (Kleck, 2015; Shetgiri, Boots, Lin, & Cheng, 2016; Siegel, Ross, & King III, 2013). Investigations of gun control regulations have exhibited more consistent associations with lower crime and violence (Andres & Hempstead, 2011; Fleegler et al., 2013; Hurka & Knill, 2020; Schell et al., 2020; Smith & Spiegler, 2020). For school-based incidents with firearms, empirical analyses are lacking. Nevertheless, there are compelling reasons to expect that high rates of gun ownership increase the likelihood of school firearm incidents as school shootings often involve weapons stolen by minors from family members, friends, and neighbors (Jeynes, 2020; Shetgiri et al., 2016). Some evidence on regulation is suggestive, indicating that laws holding gun owners criminally liable for negligent storage of firearms (e.g. child access prevention laws) are linked to lower prevalence of gun carrying in school (Anderson & Sabia, 2018; Fla. Stat. Ann. § 790.174, 2011; Hawaii Rev. Stat. § 134-10.5, 2011). Other scholarship on preventative measures is predominantly theoretical, drawing from threat assessment models (Cornell, 2020) or in-depth analyses of a subset of school shootings (Langman, 2009a). Broader empirical analysis is needed to launch a line of inquiry that can shed light on policy responses that might hold promise for reducing school shootings.

This study investigates the relationship between state gun ownership rates and school firearm incidents (n = 1275) and injured/killed victims (n = 2026) of these incidents from 1980 to 2019 in the United States. Over this forty-year period, it also examines whether child access prevention, minimum age requirements for gun purchases, and mandatory gun safety training laws are associated with decreases in school firearm incidents and injured/killed victims. For the analyses, data from the School Shootings Database were linked to data from the State Firearm Law Database, the National Center for Education Statistics, and US Census. State-level fixed effects models are performed to explore whether state-level gun ownership rates are related to the number of school firearm incidents and injured/killed victims. Interrupted time series analyses are then used to examine whether child access prevention, minimum age requirements for gun purchases, and mandatory gun safety training laws are associated with declines in school firearm incidents and injured/killed victims. This study provides a quantitative analysis of school firearm incidents over a forty-year period that has the potential to contribute to an underdeveloped literature. It may also raise important questions for gun policy and regulation.