Developing a perspective on the use of renewable energy in Iran

Highlights

• Identifying barriers and solutions to improve the use of renewable energy in Iran.

• Using cause and effect relationships to consider effects between barriers.

• Proposing renewable energy development model in Iran.

• Analyzing the future trend of renewable energy in Iran to declare investment opportunities.

• Examining three scenarios for analyzing renewable energy in Iran.

Abstract

Despite numerable resources in Iran, the issue of renewable energies and the formulation of a grand strategy for the future are very important. This study identifies the most important effective factors, the extent and how they affect, and finally the possible scenarios for the future status of renewable energy in Iran. Therefore, this study was an applied descriptive-analytical study that is using expert groups and the Delphi method to identify the influential factors. After extraction of assumptions and prominent trends in Iran's renewable energy future (using cross-impact analysis in the MICMAC software), the effect of these trends on key variables was qualitatively determined (using causal layered analysis). This study presents Iran's renewable energy future scenarios in three dimensions of "long-term technology acquisition programs", "policy stabilization" and "attraction of foreign capital". The results showed that the success of the planning and implementation of renewable energy policy relies on the selection of policies that are the most adaptive with national targets, technical abilities, and the country's economy. Therefore, it is necessary to acquire accurate identification of limitations, obstacles, available facilities and technologies, international sanctions, and foreign investment in detail to develop the comprehensive plan of renewable energy efficiently and implement it successfully.

Introduction

Energy is one of the main factors of production in all economic sectors having significant effects on the economy (Ghanbari et al., 2018). Research conducted around the world showed that the accelerating trend of economic and industrial development in countries around the world is largely linked to the level of energy carrier consumption and the fact that energy contributes most to global activities and trade. Choosing what type of energy to use depends on the policies of each country. France, for example, produces most of its energy (about 75%) from nuclear power plants whereas countries such as China and the United States depend on coal and oil for 65.2% and 37%, respectively (Zarepour et al., 2018). Currently, due to the adoption of strict environmental laws as well as energy crises, the development of renewable energies in developed industrial countries has become increasingly important. Renewable Energies (RE) are not only environmentally friendly but also more economically viable than fossil fuels. They are free and will not perish.

The development of renewable energies has become a mainstream among governments over a decade-long process. The growth of these types of energies around the world began in the 1990s and greatly increased in the early decades of the 21st century. By 2011, 260 billion dollars was invested in the renewable energy industry. The reason for this growth can be attributed to the development of government support and policies, the rise in the price of conventional energy carriers, the sharp reduction in the cost of renewable technologies and the economies of scale in the production of equipment. Politics of national, state, provincial, and local levels have played an important role in the development of markets, investments, and the growth of renewable energy industries over the past two decades (Sajid et al, 2016).

At the national level, renewable energies account for more than 20% in at least 30 countries. Some countries have long-term targeting for 2030 or 2050, with Denmark (100%) and Germany (60%) among them. Outside Europe, at least 20 countries have targets of between 10% and 50% by 2020-2030, some of which include Algeria, China, Indonesia, Jamaica, Madagascar and Turkey. Thus, the political aspect and attitude of different nations on how to secure their future energy has a significant impact on the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies (Michaelowa, 2005). Therefore, many researchers are looking for the key to development of renewable energies in a country's energy portfolio by taking environmental issues and climate change seriously (Barret, 2009).

In the meantime, as buildings make up the bulk of the energy use, the need to use renewable energies in this sector is becoming more apparent. Paying attention to how energy is provided to buildings has an impact both on environmental health and on the optimal use of resources on the planet. A building that uses renewable energies has less environmental impact on its construction environment. Therefore, the use of renewable energies in the building industry creates sustainability that responds in some way to the needs of the present generation without limiting the capabilities of future generations to meet their needs (Goodarzi & Maleki, 2017).

Reaching this definition is not an easy task and requires policies, goals and strategies to be explained after which sustainable designs for the future can be achieved. Practical policy making on the use of renewable energies is virtually impossible without regard to the obstacles and difficulties of developing these types of energies. In general, there are many issues regarding the development of renewable energy sources around the world, especially within Iran, which can be subdivided as follows (Rojas Zerpa & Yusta, 2014; Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Asia Development Bank, 2009; BP, 2012; European Commission, 2011; Riahi, 2012):

• Comparison of renewable energy prices with fossil and nuclear fuels;

• Supportive policies for renewable technologies;

• Energy service type;

• How to develop energy consumers such as transportation and housing;

• Increasing energy demand;

• The amount of energy output achievable;

• Social and environmental costs; Social acceptance;

• Network flexibility and network connectivity problem solving;

• Portfolio Risk Reduction;

• Access to energy in rural areas;

• Accidents and losses from common and nuclear fuels.

Therefore, regarding the policies related to the penetration of renewable energies in Iran's energy supply system, the aforementioned should be considered in the form of reasonable scenarios. On the other hand, in all of the above, there are high uncertainties in the system. Therefore, it would be much more difficult to design appropriate scenarios for utilizing renewable energy sources than for conventional fossil fuels. Investigating, recognizing, and managing uncertainties using scenario design is therefore an essential prerequisite for creating a long-term plan and future insights. In this study, we have tried to illustrate the alternative futures of this sector and to determine sustainable strategies for managing renewable energies in Iran using hypothetical planning. The research therefore seeks to answer the following questions:

• What are the effective drivers of development and deployment of renewable energies in Iran?

• How do these factors affect each other?

• What are the predictions for each of the important factors derived from structural analysis?