Developing a perspective on the use of renewable energy in Iran
Introduction
Energy is one of the main factors of production in all economic sectors having significant effects on the economy (Ghanbari et al., 2018). Research conducted around the world showed that the accelerating trend of economic and industrial development in countries around the world is largely linked to the level of energy carrier consumption and the fact that energy contributes most to global activities and trade. Choosing what type of energy to use depends on the policies of each country. France, for example, produces most of its energy (about 75%) from nuclear power plants whereas countries such as China and the United States depend on coal and oil for 65.2% and 37%, respectively (Zarepour et al., 2018). Currently, due to the adoption of strict environmental laws as well as energy crises, the development of renewable energies in developed industrial countries has become increasingly important. Renewable Energies (RE) are not only environmentally friendly but also more economically viable than fossil fuels. They are free and will not perish.
The development of renewable energies has become a mainstream among governments over a decade-long process. The growth of these types of energies around the world began in the 1990s and greatly increased in the early decades of the 21st century. By 2011, 260 billion dollars was invested in the renewable energy industry. The reason for this growth can be attributed to the development of government support and policies, the rise in the price of conventional energy carriers, the sharp reduction in the cost of renewable technologies and the economies of scale in the production of equipment. Politics of national, state, provincial, and local levels have played an important role in the development of markets, investments, and the growth of renewable energy industries over the past two decades (Sajid et al, 2016).
At the national level, renewable energies account for more than 20% in at least 30 countries. Some countries have long-term targeting for 2030 or 2050, with Denmark (100%) and Germany (60%) among them. Outside Europe, at least 20 countries have targets of between 10% and 50% by 2020-2030, some of which include Algeria, China, Indonesia, Jamaica, Madagascar and Turkey. Thus, the political aspect and attitude of different nations on how to secure their future energy has a significant impact on the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies (Michaelowa, 2005). Therefore, many researchers are looking for the key to development of renewable energies in a country's energy portfolio by taking environmental issues and climate change seriously (Barret, 2009).
In the meantime, as buildings make up the bulk of the energy use, the need to use renewable energies in this sector is becoming more apparent. Paying attention to how energy is provided to buildings has an impact both on environmental health and on the optimal use of resources on the planet. A building that uses renewable energies has less environmental impact on its construction environment. Therefore, the use of renewable energies in the building industry creates sustainability that responds in some way to the needs of the present generation without limiting the capabilities of future generations to meet their needs (Goodarzi & Maleki, 2017).
Reaching this definition is not an easy task and requires policies, goals and strategies to be explained after which sustainable designs for the future can be achieved. Practical policy making on the use of renewable energies is virtually impossible without regard to the obstacles and difficulties of developing these types of energies. In general, there are many issues regarding the development of renewable energy sources around the world, especially within Iran, which can be subdivided as follows (Rojas Zerpa & Yusta, 2014; Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Asia Development Bank, 2009; BP, 2012; European Commission, 2011; Riahi, 2012):
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Comparison of renewable energy prices with fossil and nuclear fuels;
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Supportive policies for renewable technologies;
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Energy service type;
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How to develop energy consumers such as transportation and housing;
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Increasing energy demand;
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The amount of energy output achievable;
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Social and environmental costs; Social acceptance;
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Network flexibility and network connectivity problem solving;
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Portfolio Risk Reduction;
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Access to energy in rural areas;
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Accidents and losses from common and nuclear fuels.
Therefore, regarding the policies related to the penetration of renewable energies in Iran's energy supply system, the aforementioned should be considered in the form of reasonable scenarios. On the other hand, in all of the above, there are high uncertainties in the system. Therefore, it would be much more difficult to design appropriate scenarios for utilizing renewable energy sources than for conventional fossil fuels. Investigating, recognizing, and managing uncertainties using scenario design is therefore an essential prerequisite for creating a long-term plan and future insights. In this study, we have tried to illustrate the alternative futures of this sector and to determine sustainable strategies for managing renewable energies in Iran using hypothetical planning. The research therefore seeks to answer the following questions:
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What are the effective drivers of development and deployment of renewable energies in Iran?
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How do these factors affect each other?
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What are the predictions for each of the important factors derived from structural analysis?
Section snippets
Research background
The beginnings of a shift in the use of renewable energies instead of fossil fuels can be seen in the Stockholm 1972 and Rio 1992 Declarations. This approach continued with the release of the Agenda 21 (Nascimento, 2012). Although these declarations have a non-binding nature, the emphasis on the development of renewable energy sources has gained significant and undeniable importance in the formulation of countries' energy policies. As far as the Johannesburg Declaration on Sustainable
Literature review
Nowadays energy is a strategic source that impresses the outcomes of wars, fuels and strangles economic development and pollutes as well as cleans up the environment (Tofigh & Abedian, 2016). In the age of globalization, a rapidly increasing demand of countries to energy demonstrates that energy will be one of the biggest problems in the world in the next century (Saidi & Hammami, 2015). This requires countries develop a comprehensive program of energy.
Since the industrial revolution, the use
Research methodology
This was a practical, future-based, analytical and exploratory research using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. The qualitative data were obtained through an open-ended questionnaire and interviews and survey of documents and quantitative data were numerical using the weighting in Delphi questionnaires. After collecting the variables, the cross impact matrix was formed in two stages. Then, the key drivers were explained by MICMAC software.
In this software, the main variables
Findings
In order to design a sustainable program, uncertainties need to be identified and managed as all uncertainties cannot be eliminated from the future. Ignoring uncertainties makes the organization unable to take corrective action and achieve a sustainable situation. Ignoring uncertainties can also lead to losing future chances and opportunities and eventually lead to an unstable program (Walker, 2013). Therefore, investigating, recognizing, and managing uncertainties is therefore an essential
Discussion and analysis
In this section, the causal layered analysis method was used before scenario writing. By opening up the vertical space of the future, the scenarios will be deepened and more comprehensive. In the first layer, it is assumed that the objective issue is the emergence and expansion of renewable energies in Iran including factors that are the most obvious level of the problem and explain the official and accepted view of reality. In the second layer, the range of influence and relationships of
Conclusion
According to the final analysis, the three uncertainties facing Iran's renewable energy management are political stability, foreign investment and technological capability. Increasing the country's technological capability in terms of the future of renewable energy and its technologies can even lead to energy exports and foreign exchange earnings through science and technology. Paying attention to the concept of technology acquisition rather than technology transfer from advanced countries can
Funding
This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. The authors whose names are listed immediately below certify that they have NO affiliations with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest (such as honoraria; educational grants; participation in speakers’ bureaus; membership, employment, consultancies, stock ownership, or other equity interest; and expert testimony or
Mahya Ghouchani is an architect, researcher, and university lecturer. In 2013, she received her master's degree in architectural engineering from Islamic Azad University of Shahrood, Iran, and since then has been working as an architectural designer and supervisor. Her research interests span the Theory and Philosophy of Architecture, Architectural Design, Space and Culture, Mosque Design, Mosque Architecture, Intelligent Decision in Architecture, Islamic Architecture and Spirituality.
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