Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

More Than Just a Trend: Integrating Population Viability Models to Improve Conservation Management of Colonial Waterbirds

  • Published:
Environmental Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Waterbird populations in eastern Australia have been declining over the past 35 years primarily due to water resource development and resultant changes to natural river flows and flooding. To mitigate these impacts there is an increased allocation of water for the environment, including waterbird populations. We used population viability models to identify the frequency of breeding events required to reverse the trend and achieve long-term species’ management objectives. We found that the population size of straw-necked ibis was primarily dictated by the frequency of large breeding events and to a lesser extent by adult annual survival and the frequency of small breeding events. We identified combinations of small and large breeding events over the next 10 years required for increased population growth. We also assessed the likelihood of current water management policies increasing populations and thereby reversing the decline in eastern Australia’s waterbird populations.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

Data Availability

Data are available upon request from the corresponding author.

Code Availability

Code available upon request from the corresponding author.

References

  • ABBBS (2019) Australian bird and bat banding scheme database

  • Akçakaya HR, Raphael MG (1998) Assessing human impact despite uncertainty: viability of the northern spotted owl metapopulation in the northwestern USA. Biodiv Conserv 7(7):875–894

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arthur AD, Reid J, Kingsford RT, McGinness HM, Ward KA, Harper M (2012) Breeding flow thresholds of colonial breeding waterbirds in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia. Wetlands 32:257–265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baillie S.R (1990) Integrated population monitoring of breeding birds in Britain and Ireland. Ibis 132(2):151–166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bino G, Brandis K (2017) Are we on track?—expert advice on progress towards waterbird targets in the Basin-wide environmental watering strategy II: straw-necked Ibis population models. Final report to the Murray-Darling Basin Authority. Centre for Ecosystem Science, UNSW, Sydney

  • BirdLife International (2017) Waterbirds are showing widespread declines, particularly in Asia

  • Brandis K (2010) Colonial Waterbird Breeding in Australia: wetlands, water requirements and environmental flows (PhD Thesis) University of New South Wales

  • Brandis K (2017) High resolution monitoring of waterbird colonies in the Macquarie Marshes. Final Report to the Australian Government Commonwealth Environmental Water Office. https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1617387f-d64b-471f-ab01-b64c155212ed/files/high-resolution-monitoring-waterbird-colonies-macquarie-marshes-final-report.pdf

  • Brandis K, Bino G, Spencer JA, Ramp D, Kingsford RT (2018a) Decline in colonial waterbird breeding highlighs loss of Ramsar wetland function. Biol Conserv 225:22–30

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brandis K, Callaghan D, Spencer J, Lenehan J (2017a) Optional monitoring on the lower Lachlan selected area 2016: colonial waterbird reproductive success monitoring, commonwealth environmental water office:long term intervention monitoring project: lower Lachlan 2016–2017 Technical Reports. https://www.environment.gov.au/water/cewo/catchment/lachlan/monitoring

  • Brandis K, Kingsford RT, Ren S, Ramp D (2011) Crisis water management and ibis breeding at Narran Lakes in arid Australia. Environ Manag 48(3):489–498

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Brandis K, Ryall S, Kingsford RT, Ramp D (2020) Colonial waterbird breeding in the Gayini-Nimmie-Caira wetlands, Australia, 2010–2011. SIS Conservation 2. https://storkibisspoonbill.org/wpcontent/uploads/2021/04/2020Brandis_Final.pdf

  • Brandis K, Spencer J, Callaghan D (2017b) Optional monitoring on the Murrumbidgee selected area 2016: colonial waterbird reproductive success monitoring. Commonwealth Environmental Water Office: Long Term Intervention Monitoring Project: Murrumbidgee 2016–2017 Technical Reports https://www.environment.gov.au/water/cewo/catchment/murrumbidgee/monitoring

  • Brandis KJ, Bino G, Spencer JA, Ramp D, Kingsford RT (2018b) Decline in colonial waterbird breeding highlights loss of Ramsar wetland function. Biol Conserv 225:22–30

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brandis KJ, Mazumder D, Gadd P, Ji B, Kingsford RT, Ramp D (2021) Using feathers to map continental-scale movements of waterbirds and wetland importance. Conserv Lett. e12798

  • Brouwer K, Schifter H, Jones ML (1994) Longevity and breeding records of ibises and spoonbills threskiornithidae: in captivity. Int Zoo Yearbook 33(1):94–102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burgman MA, Ferson S, Akçakaya HR (1993) Risk Assessment in Conservation Biology, 1st Ed. Springer Netherlands p. 314

  • Butchart SHM, Walpole M, Collen B, Strien AV, Scharlemann JPW, Almond REA, Baillie JEM, Bomhard B, Brown C, Bruno J, Carpenter KE, Carr GM, Chanson J, Chenery AM, Csirke J, Davidson NC, Dentener F, Foster M, Galli A, Galloway JN, Genovesi P, Gregory RD, Hockings M, Kapos V, Lamarque J-F, Leverington F, Loh J, McGeoch MA, McRae L, Minasyan A, Morcillo MH, Oldfield TEE, Pauly D, Quader S, Revenga C, Sauer JR, Skolnik B, Spear D, Stanwell-Smith D, Stuart SN, Symes A, Tierney M, Tyrrell TD, Vié J-C, Watson R (2010) Global biodiversity: indicators of recent declines. Science 328(5982):1164–1168

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Caswell H (2000) Matrix population models (Vol. 1). Sunderland, MA, USA: Sinauer

  • Chen Y, Colloff MJ, Lukasiewicz A, Pittock J (2020) A trickle, not a flood: environmental watering in the Murray–Darling Basin. Marine and Freshwater Research, Australia

    Google Scholar 

  • Chisholm RA, Wintle BA (2007) Incorporating landscape stochasticity into population viability analysis. Ecol Appl 17(2):317–322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clapp RB, Klimkiewicz MK (1982) Longevity records of North American birds: gaviidae through alcidae. J Field Ornithol 53(2):81–124

    Google Scholar 

  • Davidson NC (2014) How much wetland has the world lost? Long-term and recent trends in global wetland area. Mar Freshw Res 65:934–941

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis JWF (1976) Breeding success and experience in the Arctic Skua, Stercorarius parasiticus (L.). J Anim Ecol 45(2):531–535

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duckworth GD, Altwegg R, Harebottle DM (2012) Demography and population ecology of the Hadeda Ibis (Bostrychia hagedash) at its expanding range edge in South Africa. J Ornithol 153(2):421–430

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Erwin RM, Brinker DF, Watts BD, Costanzo GR, Morton DD (2011) Islands at bay: rising seas, eroding islands, and waterbird habitat loss in Chesapeake Bay (USA). J Coast Conserv 15(1):51–60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Field SA, O’Connor PJ, Tyre AJ, Possingham HP (2007) Making monitoring meaningful. Austral Ecol 32:485–491

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fox JC, Regan TJ, Bekessy SA, Wintle BA, Brown MJ, Meggs JM, Bonham K, Mesibov R, McCarthy MA, Munks SA, Wells P, Brereton R, Graham K, Hickey J, Turner P, Jones M, Brown WE, Mooney N, Grove S, Yamada K, Burgman MA (2004) Linking landscape ecology and management to population viability analysis, Report by University of Melbourne for Forestry Tasmania, Melbourne p. 267

  • Geoscience Australia (1997) Australia’s river basins 1997, Australian Government. https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/42343

  • Grafton RQ, Pittock J, Davis R, Williams J, Fu G, Warburton M, Udall B, McKenzie R, Yu X, Che N, Connell D, Jiang Q, Kompas T, Lynch A, Norris R, Possingham H, Quiggin J (2012) Global insights into water resources climate change and governance. Nat Clim Change 3:315

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grömping U (2006) Relative importance for linear regression in R: the package relaimpo. J Stat Softw 17(1):1–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Higgins KF, Naugle DE, Forman KJ (2002) A case study of changing land use practices in the northern Great plains, USA: an uncertain future for waterbird conservation. Waterbirds 25:42–50

    Google Scholar 

  • IPBES (2019) Global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. E. S. Brondizio, J. Settele, S. Díaz, and H. T. Ngo (eds). IPBES secretariat, Bonn, Germany. p. 1148. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3831673

  • IUCN (2019) The IUCN red list of threatened species. Version 2019-2. https://www.iucnredlist.org

  • Kingsford RT, Auld KM (2005) Waterbird breeding and environmental flow management in the Macquarie Marshes, Arid Australia. River Res Appl 21(2–3):187–200

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kingsford RT, Bino G, Porter JL (2017) Continental impacts of water development on waterbirds, contrasting two Australian river basins: global implications for sustainable water use. Global Change Biol 23:4958–4969

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kingsford RT, Jenkins KM, Porter JL (2004) Imposed hydrological stability on lakes in arid Australia and effects on waterbirds. Ecology 59(9):2478–2492

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kingsford RT, Johnson W (1998) Impact of water diversions on colonially-nesting waterbirds in the Macquarie Marshes of Arid Australia. Colonial Waterbirds 21(2):159–170

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kingsford RT, Norman FI (2002) Australian waterbirds—products of the continent’s ecology. Emu 102:47–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kingsford RT, Porter JL, Brandis KJ, Ryall S (2020) Aerial surveys of waterbirds in Australia. Sci Rep 7(172) https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12280112

  • Kingsford RT, Roshier DA, Porter JL (2010) Australian waterbirds—time and space travellers in a changing landscape. Mar Freshw Res 6(8):875–884

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kingsford RT, Thomas RF (1995) The Macquarie Marshes in Arid Australia and their waterbirds: a 50-year history of decline. Environ Manag 19(6):867–878

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kingsford RT, Thomas RF (2004) Destruction of wetlands and waterbird populations by dams and irrigation on the Murrumbidgee River in arid Australia. Environ Manag 34(3):383–396

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kreuzberg-Mukhina EA (2006) The Aral Sea basin: changes in migratory and breeding waterbird populations due to major human-induced changes to the region’s hydrology. The Stationery Office, Edinburgh

    Google Scholar 

  • Leslie DJ (2001) Effect of river management on colonially-nesting waterbirds in the Barmah-Millewa Forest, South-Eastern Australia. Regul Rivers: Res Manag 17(1):21–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Limmer B, Becker PH (2009) Improvement in chick provisioning with parental experience in a seabird. Anim Behav 77(5):1095–1101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindeman RH, Merenda PF, Gold RZ 1980. Introduction to bivariate and multivariate analysis, Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman and Company

  • Lindenmayer DB, Likens GE (2010) The science and application of ecological monitoring. Biol Conserv 143:1317–1328

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ma Z, Wang Y, Gan X, Li B, Cai Y, Chen JJEM (2009) Waterbird population changes in the wetlands at Chongming Dongtan in the Yangtze River estuary. China 43(6):1187–1200

    Google Scholar 

  • Marchant S, Higgins PJ (eds) (1990) Handbook of Australian, New Zealand and antarctic birds volume 1 ratites to ducks. Oxford University Press, Melbourne

    Google Scholar 

  • MDBA (2012) The Basin Plan 2012. The Australian Government. Federal Register of Legislation F2018C00451

  • MDBA (2014) Basin-wide environmental watering strategy, Murray–Darling Basin Authority, Commonwealth of Australia

  • MDBA (2020) Water in Storages. Murray Darling Basin Authority, Commonwealth of Australia. https://www.mdba.gov.au/managing-water/water-storage accessed 30/06/2020

  • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: Current state and trends: Findings of the Condition and Trends Working Group (Vol. 1). Island Press p. 948

  • R Core Team (2018) R: a language and environment for statisticalcomputing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing. R Foundationfor Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URL http://www.R-project.org

  • Smith ACM, Munro U, Figueira WF (2013) Modelling urban populations of the Australian White Ibis (Threskiornis molucca) to inform management. Popul Ecol 55(4):567–574

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Southwell DM, Lechner AM, Coates T, Wintle BA (2008) The sensitivity of population viability analysis to uncertainty about habitat requirements: implications for the management of the endangered southern brown bandicoot. Conserv Biol 22(4):1045–1054

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spencer J (2010) Historical records of waterbirds and fish populations in the Gwydir Wetlands, Rivers and Wetlands Unit, Department of Environment, Climate and Water NSW, Sydney

  • Stubben C, Milligan B (2007) Estimating and analyzing demographic models using the popbio package in R. J Stat Softw 22(11). https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v022.i11

  • Thomas RF, Kingsford RT, Lu Y, Hunter SJ (2010) Landsat mapping of annual inundation (1979–2006) of the Macquarie Marshes in semi-arid Australia. Int J Rem Sens 32(16):4545–4569

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weimerskirch H (1992) Reproductive effort in long-lived birds: age-specific patterns of condition, reproduction and survival in the wandering albatross. Oikos 64(3):464–473

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wetlands International (2012) Waterbird population estimates, Fifth Edition, Summary Report, Wetlands International, Wagenigent, The Netherlands

  • Wheeler SA, Carmody E, Grafton RQ, Kingsford RT, Zuo A (2020) The rebound effect on water extraction from subsidising irrigation infrastructure in Australia. Resour Conserv Recyc 159(104755)

  • Witmer GW (2005) Making monitoring meaningful. Wildlife Res 32:259–263

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woodward JD, Murphy MT (1999) Sex roles, parental experience and reproductive success of eastern kingbirds, Tyrannus tyrannus. Anim Behav 57(1):105–115

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yen JDL, Bond NR, Shenton W, Spring DA, Mac Nally R (2013) Identifying effective water-management strategies in variable climates using population dynamics models. J Appl Ecol 50:691–701

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu X, Huo Z (2015) Breeding ecology and success of a reintroduced population of the endangered crested Ibis Nipponia nippon. Bird Conserv Int 25:207–219

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Žydelis R, Bellebaum J, Österblom H, Vetemaa M, Schirmeister B, Stipniece A, Dagys M, van Eerden M, Garthe S (2009) Bycatch in gillnet fisheries—an overlooked threat to waterbird populations. Biol Conserv 142(7):1269–1281

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

This research was supported by the Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 2052, Australia

    K. J. Brandis, G. Bino & R. T. Kingsford

Authors
  1. K. J. Brandis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. G. Bino
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. R. T. Kingsford
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

KJB and GB designed and undertook the research, KJB waterbird data, GB data analytics. All authors contributed to manuscript writing.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to K. J. Brandis.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Brandis, K.J., Bino, G. & Kingsford, R.T. More Than Just a Trend: Integrating Population Viability Models to Improve Conservation Management of Colonial Waterbirds. Environmental Management 68, 468–476 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-021-01507-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-021-01507-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation