Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Observed Changes in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall at Different Intensity Bins during the Past 118 Years over Five Homogeneous Regions

  • Published:
Pure and Applied Geophysics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In the present paper, the variabilities and long-term trends of summer monsoon rainfall for different intensity bins (dry, low, moderate, high, very high, and extreme) are studied for five homogeneous regions, namely Northeast India (NEI), Northcentral India (NCI), Northwest India (NWI), Westcentral India (WCI), and Peninsular India (PI) for 118 years (1901–2018). The study was carried out based on gridded rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The rainfall characteristics such as number of rainy days, percentage contribution, and periodicity of rainfall intensity classes are analysed and found to be different in different homogeneous regions. The long-term trend (1901–2018) of total rainfall showed a significant increasing trend (19.9 mm decade−1) in NEI and significant decreasing trends in NCI (9.6 mm decade−1) and PI (4.9 mm decade−1). Analysis on rainfall intensity indicates a significant increasing trend for high, very high, and extreme classes in NEI, a significant increasing trend for dry, and a decreasing trend for moderate and very high classes over NCI and PI. From correlation analysis among the homogeneous regions, it is found that the rain events in different intensity classes show different relationships, which indicate the regional heterogeneity in rainfall characteristics. It is also important to note that an increase in rainfall contribution from very high and extreme classes was found over NEI, NWI, and WCI in the multidecadal period of 1991–2018, while NCI showed a decrease during this period; however, in NCI, a drastic increase for these intensity bins is distinct during the 1961–1990 multidecadal period. In addition to the trends and variabilities, we also explored spatial heterogeneity of different rainfall intensity categories, and found remarkable differences from one homogeneous region to another.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alexander, L., Zhang, X., Peterson, T., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Klein Tank, A., Haylock, M., Collins, D., Trewin, B., Rahimzadeh, F., Tagipour, A., Rupa Kumar, K., Revadekar, J., Griffiths, G., Vincent, L., Stephenson, D., Burn, J., Aguilar, E., Brunet, M., … Vazquez-Aguirre, J. (2006). Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashok, K., Guan, Z., Saji, N. H., & Yamagata, T. (2004). Individual and combined influences of ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole on the Indian summer monsoon. Journal of Climate, 17(16), 3141–3155.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baines, P. G., & Folland, C. K. (2007). Evidence for a rapid global climate shift across the late 1960s. Journal of Climate, 20, 2721–2744.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boyaj, A., Dasari, H. P., Hoteit, I., & Ashok, K. (2020). Increasing heavy rainfall events in south India due to changing land use and land cover. Quarterly Journal Royal Meteorological Society, 146, 3064–3085.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chou, C., Ryu, D., Lo, M., Wey, H., & Malano, H. (2018). Irrigation-induced land-atmosphere feedbacks and their impacts on indian summer monsoon. Journal of Climate, 31, 8785–8801.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dash, S. K., Jenamani, R. K., Kalsi, S. R., & Panda, S. K. (2007). Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India. Climate Change, 85, 299–321.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dash, S. K., Nair, A. A., Kulkarni, M. A., & Mohanty, U. (2011). Characteristic changes in the long and short spells of different rain intensities in India. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 105, 563–570.

    Google Scholar 

  • Douglas, E. M., Beltrán-Przekurat, A., Niyogi, D., Pielke, R. A., & Vörösmarty, C. J. (2009). The impact of agricultural intensification and irrigation on land-atmosphere interactions and Indian monsoon precipitation—A mesoscale modeling perspective. Global and Planetary Change, 67, 117–128.

    Google Scholar 

  • Feddema, J. J., Oleson, K. W., Bonan, G. B., Mearns, L. O., Buja, L. E., Meehl, G. A., & Washington, W. M. (2005). Atmospheric science: The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates. Science, 310, 1674–1678.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fujinami, H., Sato, T., Kanamori, H., & Murata, F. (2017). Contrasting features of monsoon precipitation around the Meghalaya plateau under westerly and easterly regimes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122, 9591–9610.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fukushima, A., Kanamori, H., & Matsumoto, J. (2019). Regionality of long-term trends and interannual variation of seasonal precipitation over India. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 6, 1–20.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gadgil, S., & Gadgil, S. (2006). The Indian Monsoon, GDP and agriculture. Economic and Political Weekly, 41, 4887–4895.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghosh, S., Luniya, V., & Gupta, A. (2009). Trend analysis of Indian summer monsoon rainfall at different spatial scales. Atmospheric Sci. Lett., 10, 285–290.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghosh, S., Vittal, H., Sharma, T., Karmakar, S., Kasiviswanathan, K., Dhanesh, Y., Sudheer, K., & Gunthe, S. (2016). Indian summer monsoon rainfall: Implications of contrasting trends in the spatial variability of means and extremes. PLoS ONE, 11, e0158670.

    Google Scholar 

  • Goswami, B. N., Kripalani, R. H., Borgaonkar, H. P., & Preethi, B. (2016). Multi-decadal variability in Indian summer monsoon rainfall using proxy data. Climate Change: Multidecadal and beyond. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814579933_0021

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami, B. B., Mukhopadhyay, P., Mahanta, R., & Goswami, B. N. (2010). Multiscale interaction with topography and extreme rainfall events in the northeast Indian region. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 115, 1–12.

    Google Scholar 

  • Goswami, B. N., Venugopal, V., Sengupta, D., Madhusoodanan, M., & Xavier, P. K. (2006). Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science, 314, 1442–1445.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guhathakurta, P., Rajeevan, M., Sikka, D. R., & Tyagi, A. (2014). Observed changes in southwest monsoon rainfall over India during 1901–2011. International Journal of Climatology, 35, 1881–1898.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guhathakurta, P., Sreejith, O., & Menon, P. (2011). Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. J. Earth System Sci., 120, 359–373.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guo, L., Turner, A., & Highwood, E. (2016). Local and remote impacts of aerosol species on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in a GCM. Journal of Climate, 29, 6937–6955.

    Google Scholar 

  • Huang, X., Zhou, T., Turner, A., Dai, A., Chen, X., Clark, R., Jiang, J., Man, W., Murphy, J., Rostron, J., Wu, B., Zhang, L., Zhang, W., & Zou, L. (2020). The recent decline and recovery of Indian summer monsoon rainfall: Relative roles of external forcing and internal variability. Journal of Climate, 33, 5035–5060.

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC. (2001). Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jain, S. K., Kumar, V., & Saharia, M. (2013). Analysis of rainfall and temperature trends in northeast India. International Journal of Climatology, 33, 968–978.

    Google Scholar 

  • Joseph, P. V., & Simon, A. (2005). Weakening trend of the southwest monsoon current through peninsular India from 1950 to the present. Current Science, 89, 687–694.

    Google Scholar 

  • Joshi, M. K., & Kucharski, F. (2017). Impact of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Indian summer monsoon rainfall: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models. Climate Dynamics, 48, 2375–2391.

    Google Scholar 

  • Joshi, M., & Pandey, A. (2011). Trend and spectral analysis of rainfall over India during 1901–2000. Journal of Geophysical Research. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014966

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karmakar, N., Chakraborty, A., & Nanjundiah, R. (2017). Increased sporadic extremes decrease the intraseasonal variability in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Science and Reports, 7, 1–7.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kendall, M. G. (1975). Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kishtawal, C., Niyogi, D., Tewari, M., Pielke, R., & Shepherd, J. (2009). Urbanization signature in the observed heavy rainfall climatology over India. International Journal of Climatology, 30, 1908–1916.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kripalani, R. H., & Kulkarni, A. (1997). Climatic impact of El Nino/La Nina on the Indian monsoon: A new perspective. Weather, 52, 39–46.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kripalani, R. H., Kulkarni, A., & Sabade, S. S. (2003). Indian monsoon variability in a global warming scenario. Natural Hazards, 29, 189–206.

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan, R., Sabin, T. P., Ayantika, D. C., Kitoh, A., Sugi, M., Murakami, H., Turner, A. G., Slingo, J. M., & Rajendran, K. (2013). Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further? Climate Dynamics, 40, 187–211.

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan, R., Sabin, T., Vellore, R., Mujumdar, M., Sanjay, J., Goswami, B., Hourdin, F., Dufresne, J., & Terray, P. (2015). Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world. Climate Dynamics, 47, 1007–1027.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kulkarni, A. (2012). Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in warming environment. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 109, 447–459.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar, K. K., Rajagopalan, B., & Cane, M. A. (1999). On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science, 284, 2156–2159.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar, V., Jain, S. K., & Singh, Y. (2010). Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55, 484–496.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuttippurath, J., Murasingh, S., Stott, P., Balan Sarojini, B., Jha, M., Kumar, P., Nair, P., Varikoden, H., Raj, S., Francis, P., & Pandey, P. (2021). Observed rainfall changes in the past century (1901–2019) over the wettest place on the Earth. Environmental Research Letters, 16, 024018.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lau, K. M., Kim, M. K., & Kim, K. M. (2006). Asian summer monsoon anomalies induced by aerosol direct forcing: The role of the Tibetan Plateau. Climate Dynamics, 26, 855–864.

    Google Scholar 

  • Li, Z., Lin, X., & Cai, W. (2017). Realism of modelled Indian summer monsoon correlation with the tropical Indo-Pacific affects projected monsoon changes. Science and Reports, 7, 1–7.

    Google Scholar 

  • Luwangleima, M., & Shrivastava, S. K. (2021). Temporal and spatial variability of daily rainfall extremes in humid northeast Assam state of India hydrological extremes (pp. 149–160). Cham: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Malik, A., & Brönnimann, S. (2018). Factors affecting the inter-annual to centennial timescale variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. Climate Dynamics, 50, 4347–4364.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mann, H. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 13, 245–259.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meehl, G. A., & Washington, W. M. (1993). South Asian summer monsoon variability in a model with doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Science, 260, 1101–1104.

    Google Scholar 

  • Menon, A., Levermann, A., & Schewe, J. (2013). Enhanced future variability during India’s rainy season. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 3242–3247.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mishra, V., Smoliak, B., Lettenmaier, D., & Wallace, J. (2012). A prominent pattern of year-to-year variability in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences., 109, 7213–7217.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mohan, T., & Rajeevan, M. (2017). Past and future trends of hydroclimatic intensity over the Indian monsoon region. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122, 896–909.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mukhopadhyay, P., Taraphdar, S., Goswami, B. N., & Krishnakumar, K. (2010). Indian summer monsoon precipitation climatology in a high-resolution regional climate model: Impacts of convective parameterization on systematic biases. Weather and Forecasting, 25, 369–387.

    Google Scholar 

  • Naidu, C. V., Durgalakshmi, K., Krishna, K. M., Rao, S. R., Satyanarayana, G. C., Lakshminarayana, P., & Rao, L. M. (2009). Is summer monsoon rainfall decreasing over India in the global warming era? Journal of Geophysical Research. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011288

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nair, P., Chakraborty, A., Varikoden, H., Francis, P., & Kuttippurath, J. (2018). The local and global climate forcings induced inhomogeneity of Indian rainfall. Science and Reports, 8, 1–12.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pai, D. S., Shridhar, L., Rajeevan, M., Sreejith, O. P., Satbhai, N. S., & Mukhopadhyay, B. (2014). Development of a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) long period (1901–2010) daily gridded rainfall data set over India and its comparison with existing data sets over the region. Mausam, 65, 1–18.

    Google Scholar 

  • Parthasarathy, B., Munot, A. A., & Kothawale, D. R. (1994). All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871–1993. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 49, 217–224.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pattanaik, D., & Rajeevan, M. (2010). Variability of extreme rainfall events over India during southwest monsoon season. Meteorological Applications, 17, 88–104.

    Google Scholar 

  • Paul, S., Ghosh, S., Oglesby, R., Pathak, A., Chandrasekharan, A., & Ramsankaran, R. (2016). Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall due to changes in land use land cover. Science and Reports, 6, 1–10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pielke, R., Adegoke, J., Beltrán-Przekurat, A., Hiemstra, C., Lin, J., Nair, U., Niyogi, D., & Nobis, T. (2007). An overview of regional land-use and land-cover impacts on rainfall. Tellus B Chemical and Physical Meteorology., 59, 587–601.

    Google Scholar 

  • Preethi, B., Mujumdar, M., Kripalani, R. H., Prabhu, A., & Krishnan, R. (2017). Recent trends and tele-connections among South and East Asian summer monsoons in a warming environment. Climate Dynamics, 48, 2489–2505.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rajeevan, M., Bhate, J., Kale, J. D., & Lal, B. (2005). Development of a high resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region. Met. Monograph Climatology, 22, 2005.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rajeevan, M., Gadgil, S., & Bhate, J. (2010). Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon. Journal of Earth System Science, 119, 229–247.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rajendran, K., Kitoh, A., Srinivasan, J., Mizuta, R., & Krishnan, R. (2012). Monsoon circulation interaction with Western Ghats orography under changing climate. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 110, 555–571.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rajesh, P. V., & Goswami, B. N. (2020). Four-dimensional structure and sub-seasonal regulation of the Indian summer monsoon multi-decadal mode. Climate Dynamics, 55, 2645–2666.

    Google Scholar 

  • Roxy, M., Ghosh, S., Pathak, A., Athulya, R., Mujumdar, M., Murtugudde, R., Terray, P., & Rajeevan, M. (2017). A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India. Nature Communications, 8, 1–11.

    Google Scholar 

  • Roxy, M., Ritika, K., Terray, P., Murtugudde, R., Ashok, K., & Goswami, B. (2015). Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient. Nature Communications, 6, 1–10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sabeerali, C. T., & Ajayamohan, R. S. (2018). On the shortening of Indian summer monsoon season in a warming scenario. Climate Dynamics, 50, 1609–1624.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sabeerali, C. T., Ajayamohan, R. S., Bangalath, H. K., & Chen, N. (2019). Atlantic Zonal Mode: An emerging source of Indian summer monsoon variability in a warming world. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 4460–4467.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sahany, S., Venugopal, V., & Nanjundiah, R. S. (2010). Diurnal-scale signatures of monsoon rainfall over the Indian region from TRMM satellite observations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 115, D02103.

  • Seetha, C. J., Varikoden, H., Babu, C. A., & Kuttippurath, J. (2020). Significant changes in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and associated circulation features on multidecadal timescale. Climate Dynamics, 54, 1491–1506.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sen, P. K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Journal of American Statistical Association, 63, 1379–1389.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sen Roy, S., & Balling, R. C. (2004). Trends in extreme daily precipitation indices in India. International Journal of Climatology, 24, 457–466.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sheikh, M. M., Manzoor, N., Ashraf, J., Adnan, M., Collins, D., Hameed, S., Manton, M. J., Ahmed, A. U., Baidya, S. K., Borgaonkar, H. P., Islam, N., Jayasinghearachchi, D., Kothawale, D. R., Premalal, K. H. M. S., Revadekar, J. V., & Shrestha, M. L. (2015). Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature indices over South Asia. International Journal of Climatology, 35, 1625–1637.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shepard, D. (1968). A two-dimensional interpolation function for irregularly-spaced data. In Proceedings of the 1968 23rd ACM national conference (pp. 517–524).

  • Singh, D., Tsiang, M., Rajaratnam, B., & Diffenbaugh, N. S. (2014). Observed changes in extreme wet and dry spells during the South Asian summer monsoon season. Nature Climate Change, 4, 456–461.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sudeepkumar, B., Babu, C. A., & Varikoden, H. (2018). Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective. Glob Planet Change, 161, 222–230.

    Google Scholar 

  • Turner, A. G., & Annamalai, H. (2012). Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon. Nature Climate Change, 2, 587–595.

    Google Scholar 

  • Varikoden, H., Babu, C. A., & Krishnakumar, K. (2013). long term trends of seasonal and monthly rainfall in different intensity ranges over Indian subcontinent. Mausam, 64, 481–488.

    Google Scholar 

  • Varikoden, H., Preethi, B., & Revadekar, J. V. (2012). Diurnal and spatial variation of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall using tropical rainfall measuring mission rain rate. Journal of Hydrology, 475, 248–258.

    Google Scholar 

  • Varikoden, H., & Revadekar, J. (2020). On the extreme rainfall events during the southwest monsoon season in northeast regions of the Indian subcontinent. Meteorological Applications, 27, e1822.

    Google Scholar 

  • Varikoden, H., Revadekar, J., Kuttippurath, J., & Babu, C. (2019). Contrasting trends in southwest monsoon rainfall over the Western Ghats region of India. Climate Dynamics, 52, 4557–4566.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vinnarasi, R., & Dhanya, C. (2016). Changing characteristics of extreme wet and dry spells of Indian monsoon rainfall. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121, 2146–2160.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The first and third authors are grateful to CUSAT, and the second author is grateful to the Director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) for providing the necessary facilities and to the Executive Director, Centre for Climate Change Research, IITM for encouragement. The second and third authors acknowledge support from DST, India, for the SERB Project (EMR/2016/003682). The authors are thankful to the India Meteorological Department for providing the long-term daily gridded rainfall data set.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Marine Sciences, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Kochi, 682016, India

    T. Reshma & C. A. Babu

  2. Ministry of Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, Pune, 411008, India

    Hamza Varikoden

Authors
  1. T. Reshma
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Hamza Varikoden
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. C. A. Babu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Hamza Varikoden or C. A. Babu.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Reshma, T., Varikoden, H. & Babu, C.A. Observed Changes in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall at Different Intensity Bins during the Past 118 Years over Five Homogeneous Regions. Pure Appl. Geophys. 178, 3655–3672 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-021-02826-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-021-02826-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation