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Earthquake Prediction: Old Expectations and New Results

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Abstract

A significant number of modern earthquake prediction algorithms are based on general signs of loss of stability by the system, without reference to the physical mechanism behind the development of seismic instability. Considerations have been repeatedly expressed that such an approach is unlikely to lead to a completely satisfactory forecast. New geophysical evidence in favor of a fluid metamorphogenic model of the earthquake mechanism and data on the typical nature of the precursor seismic process are presented. The use of these new data for earthquake prediction is discussed.

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Funding

The study work was carried out under the state task of the Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, the Russian Academy of Sciences (project AAAA-A19-119011490129-0), and the Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (project AAAA-A18-118012290125-2.2), with partial support by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project no. 19-05-00466).

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  1. Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117997, Moscow, Russia

    M. V. Rodkin

  2. Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 693022, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia

    M. V. Rodkin

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Correspondence to M. V. Rodkin.

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Rodkin, M.V. Earthquake Prediction: Old Expectations and New Results. Seism. Instr. 57, 438–445 (2021). https://doi.org/10.3103/S0747923921040095

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S0747923921040095

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