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River flooding in a changing climate: rainfall-discharge trends, controlling factors, and susceptibility mapping for the Mahi catchment, Western India

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Abstract

The Mahi—one of the major rivers in Western India—is subject to frequent major flooding, which severely affects the local economy and infrastructure. Little has been done, however, to assess the flood patterns and severity along its course. Here, the Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests are used to identify long-term trends of precipitation and peak streamflow at multiple locations in the catchment. Then, flood susceptibility mapping is performed by the analytical hierarchy process, accounting for 14 geomorphic, hydraulic, and geologic factors. The analyses suggest a decline in total precipitation and peak flow discharges at most locations, consistently with the general climatic trend of the area, featuring a weakening summer monsoon. Nonetheless, a significant portion of the catchment area remains highly susceptible to flooding, with stream powers capable of mobilizing boulders up to 1 m in size in extraordinary floods. These results can support the work of engineers and policymakers dealing with floods in the study area, but the proposed methodology can also be applied to other fluvial catchments to evaluate the role of climate trends in modulating flood susceptibility.

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Acknowledgements

S. Das is thankful to the UGC-India for partial financial support. G. Scaringi acknowledges financial support by the Czech Science Foundation (GAČR Junior Grant No. 20-28853Y) and by the Fund for international mobility of researchers at Charles University (MSCA-IF IV Grant No. CZ.02.2.69/0.0/0.0/20_079/0017987). S. Das wishes to thank the Department of Geography, Savitribai Phule Pune University, for providing all the necessary facilities to carry out this research. Critical and constructive comments from two anonymous reviewers improve the final manuscript significantly. Dr. Thomas Glade is sincerely acknowledged for efficient editorial handling of this manuscript.

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  1. Department of Geography, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune, 411007, India

    Sumit Das

  2. Institute of Hydrogeology, Engineering Geology and Applied Geophysics, Faculty of Science, Charles University, 12843, Prague, Czech Republic

    Gianvito Scaringi

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Das, S., Scaringi, G. River flooding in a changing climate: rainfall-discharge trends, controlling factors, and susceptibility mapping for the Mahi catchment, Western India. Nat Hazards 109, 2439–2459 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04927-y

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