Factors affecting intention to prepare for mitigation of “the big one” earthquake in the Philippines: Integrating protection motivation theory and extended theory of planned behavior

Highlights

• PMT and TPB were integrated to evaluate the earthquake mitigation.

• Media had a significant effect on intention to prepare.

• Attitude, perceived severity, and subjective norms had significant effects on intention to prepare.

• Understanding of The Big One had an indirect effect on the intention to prepare.

• The framework could be utilized to evaluate other types of natural disasters preparedness worldwide.

Abstract

The lack of studies on Filipinos preparedness in natural calamities such as earthquakes, specifically “The Big One”, posed the necessity for researchers to assess the preparedness and disaster mitigation. This study aimed to assess the driving factors that significantly influence the intention to prepare among Filipinos for mitigation of The Big One earthquake. With the integration of Protection Motivation Theory and Extended Theory of Planned Behavior, the study considered 727 valid responses to measure the intention to prepare. Eight latent were measured namely: (1) perceived vulnerability, (2) perceived severity, (3) subjective norm, (4) perceived behavioral control, (5) attitude, (6) media, (7) understanding of The Big One, and (8) intention to prepare. By utilizing Structural Equation Modelling, it is found out that Media, Attitude, Perceived Severity and Subjective Norm are all key factors affecting the intention of the people to prepare for the Big One. Moreover, it was also found out that the Understanding of the Big One has an indirect effect on the intention to prepare. The findings of the study can be utilized by the government to make Filipinos for conducting preparedness and mitigation practices. Finally, the model construct of the study could also be utilized to evaluate other types of natural disasters worldwide.

Introduction

The Philippines is a country prone to natural disasters such as earthquakes [1]. It is surrounded by 5 active faults: Western Philippine Fault, the Eastern Philippine Fault, the South of Mindanao Fault, Central Philippine Fault, and the Marikina/Valley Fault. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) recorded an average of 20 earthquakes per day and almost 100–150 of them are felt each year.

One of the most destructive earthquakes in the Philippine History is the 7.9 magnitude Moro Gulf Earthquake in 1976 which happened minutes after midnight, resulting in a total of 17,007 casualties and 40 aftershocks [2,3]. Another one is the 7.8 magnitude Luzon Earthquake in 1990 which resulted in 4,390 casualties, 1, 283 deaths, 2,786 injured, and 329 missing people [3]. The most recent destructive earthquake is the 6.9 Davao del Sur Earthquake in 2019 which had the highest intensity of VII on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale [4]. These destructive earthquakes in the Philippine History help in reassessing and reevaluating the existing disaster preparedness plan in the country [4].

In the Philippines, an expected massive earthquake is named “The Big One”. The Big One is predicted to have a 7.2 large-magnitude and high-intensity [5]. The earthquake is predicted to hit Metro Manila from the West Valley Fault, which is 100 km in length (Fig. 1) and would pass through seven cities in Metro Manila including nearby provinces [6]. Thus far, the most devastating earthquakes that occurred in the Philippines were the 7.9 magnitude 1976 Moro Gulf Earthquake and 7.8 magnitude 1990 Luzon Earthquake [3,[7], [8]].

Presently, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) dwells on reminding the public of awareness of ‘The Big One’. PHILCOVS aims to mitigate possible casualties and damages as they anticipate a devastating earthquake from the active faults, specifically from the West Valley Fault [10]. PHIVOLCS also stated that the last time that the West Valley Fault moved was during 1658, approximately almost 400 years ago. Thus, there is a need for Filipinos to have an intention to prepare for The Big One as the West Valley Fault might move abruptly causing similar casualties and damages with the 1976 Moro Gulf Earthquake and the 1990 Luzon Earthquake [2,[6], [11], [12]].

Although many countries have accessibility to learn from several studies about the intention to prepare for mitigation on earthquakes, the Philippines' insufficiency of these studies grows to an event. The reason for this circumstance might root from the fact that for decades, researchers have been only focusing on risk perception to determine people's recognition of hazards [[13], [14]], but vaguely focused on natural disasters such as earthquakes. In most cases, researchers have generalized their studies into geophysical disasters, disregarding their differences. Bolletino et al. [15] studied the public perception of climate change and disaster preparedness in the Philippines, therefore, dividing their study's focus into two subjects instead of focusing solely only on climate change or disaster preparedness. Moreover, there have been no studies conducted about public perception of The Big One in the Philippines.

Despite The Big One's posed threat, researchers have only focused on other disasters such as volcanic risk perception [16] focusing on the case of Mt. Pinatubo. On the other hand, Venable et al. [17] focused only on typhoon risk perception. With the natural disaster happening frequently in the Philippines, it is necessary to mitigate these natural disasters especially earthquakes. Earthquakes such as The Big One has not yet been tackled which could be mitigated using the Theory of Planned Behavior [18] and the Protection Motivation Theory [19].

Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) is a fear appeal theory that describes threat appraisal and coping appraisal as avenues that lead to protection motivation [19]. Originally, it has been designed to explain health-related behavior. However, it also became a widely used theory in other fields such as protective behaviors in disasters [19]. In disaster-related studies, PMT has been used by several studies to explain the reason why people having the necessary information regarding disasters such as earthquakes choose to or not to prepare for them [20,21]. Budhathoki et al. [22] used PMT to explore the farmers' adaptation behavior and risk perception towards three hazards: cold spells, heatwaves, and floods. Moreover, PMT has also been used to examine people's choices on self-protective behavior under the social influence [23]. It aimed to explore the ineffectiveness of infrastructure for the reduction of societal vulnerability against people's mistrust. Similarly, a study by Prasetyo et al. [18] integrated PMT with extended Theory of Planned Behavior in the evaluation of the factors affecting perceived effectiveness of prevention measures against COVID-19 among Filipinos.

The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) is a model that can be used to predict an individual's behavior in certain situations at a specific time and place [24]. It is an extension of the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) by Fishbein and Ajzen in 1975 [25]. It is commonly used to explain all behaviors of people to be able to control themselves. The reason why it is commonly used in health studies such as control of people in smoking and drinking. TPB can be used to distinguish three types of beliefs (behavioral, normative, and control) and is composed of six constructs (Attitudes Behavioral Intentions, Subjective Norms, Social Norms, Perceived Power and Perceived behavioral control) that symbolizes the person's actual control of their behavior. It has been widely used in studies related to driving such as drunk driving [26] and fatigue driving [27]. Even if it is commonly used in health-related studies, limited studies focused on people's behavior during calamities.

The purpose of this study was to determine the factors that affect the intention to prepare among Filipinos for mitigation of The Big One earthquake by integrating the Protection Motivation Theory and Extended Theory of Planned Behavior. Several factors such as understanding of The Big One, perceived vulnerability, perceived severity, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, attitude, media, and intention to prepare were analyzed utilizing the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). This is the first study related to the intention to prepare for The Big One earthquake in the Philippines which can be used as strong theoretical foundations in preparing Filipinos when The Big One earthquake occurs. Finally, the model construct of the study could also be utilized to evaluate other types of natural disasters worldwide.