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RETRACTED ARTICLE: Recommendations for modifying the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for Drought Monitoring in Arid and Semi-arid Regions

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This article was retracted on 15 November 2022

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Abstract

This study mostly aimed to modify the calculation process of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) to survey the droughts in arid and semi-arid areas. The selection of the best probability distribution functions, selection of the most appropriate probabilistic estimates to assign SPI values to zero precipitations, and recommendation of an appropriate precipitation time series arrangement at different time scales were focused attention to modify the SPI calculation process. The results demonstrated that the probability distribution of the generalized extreme values at monthly, seasonal and annual time scales was the best alternative to calculate the SPI than the default gamma distribution. To assign SPI values to zero precipitation at precipitation time series of arid and semi-arid areas which have a specific seasonal precipitation regime, the statistical "center of mass" of zero distribution method yielded better results than the maximum likelihood estimation method. Finally, to arrange precipitation time series of arid and semi-arid areas, it was proposed to consider the individual months and seasons as an independent statistical population rather than to consider the entire monthly rainfall time series of these areas as an independent statistical population. This is because if this type of rainfall time series arrangement is not selected, the dry months are shown to be less important while the wet months more important when calculating the SPI.

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Change history

  • 20 September 2022

    Editor’s Note: Readers are alerted that concerns have been raised regarding overlap between this article and a previous publication from a different author group. Further editorial action will be taken if appropriate once the investigation into the concerns is complete and all parties have been given an opportunity to respond in full.

  • 15 November 2022

    This article has been retracted. Please see the Retraction Notice for more detail: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03379-8

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Acknowledgements

The Authors would like to acknowledge the Financial Support of University of Sistan and Baluchestan for this Research under Grant Number 4323.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Planning, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

    Peyman Mahmoudi & Allahbakhsh Rigi

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

    Alireza Ghaemi

  3. Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

    Seyed Mahdi Amir Jahanshahi

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  1. Peyman Mahmoudi
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  3. Allahbakhsh Rigi
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  4. Seyed Mahdi Amir Jahanshahi
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Contributions

The study was conceived by PM. AG and SMAJ assisted in writing the code for the statistical modeling. PM, AG and AR carried out the analysis. PM, SMAJ and AG interpreted the results and drafted the article. All the authors provided suggestions and reviewed the final version of the article.

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Correspondence to Peyman Mahmoudi.

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Mahmoudi, P., Ghaemi, A., Rigi, A. et al. RETRACTED ARTICLE: Recommendations for modifying the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for Drought Monitoring in Arid and Semi-arid Regions. Water Resour Manage 35, 3253–3275 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-021-02891-7

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