Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-xtgtn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-16T02:32:43.642Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Learning to Predict Proliferation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 July 2021

Nicholas L. Miller
Get access

Abstract

How effective are states at assessing and predicting the nuclear intentions of foreign countries? Drawing on close to 200 US assessments of foreign countries’ proliferation intentions between 1957 and 1966, this research note finds that close to 80 percent of testable US assessments were correct and that they shifted from highly inaccurate in the late 1950s to highly accurate in the 1960s. Based on quantitative and qualitative analysis, I conclude that learning from early failures led the intelligence community to achieve higher accuracy.

Keywords

Nuclear weaponsnuclear proliferationintelligenceintentionslearning
Type
Research Note
Information
International Organization , Volume 76 , Issue 2 , Spring 2022 , pp. 487 - 507
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2021

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Arnett, Eric. 1998. Norms and Nuclear Proliferation: Sweden's Lessons for Assessing Iran. Nonproliferation Review 5 (2):32–43.10.1080/10736709808436705CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bas, Muhammet, and Coe, Andrew. 2016. A Dynamic Theory of Nuclear Proliferation and Preventive War. International Organization 70 (4):655–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bas, Muhammet, and Coe, Andrew. 2018. Give Peace a (Second) Chance: A Theory of Nonproliferation Deals. International Studies Quarterly 62 (3):606–17.10.1093/isq/sqy015CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bleek, Philipp. 2017. When Did (and Didn't) States Proliferate? Chronicling the Spread of Nuclear Weapons. Discussion Paper, Project on Managing the Atom, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School.Google Scholar
Bollfrass, Alexander. 2017. The Half-Lives of Others: The Democratic Advantage in Nuclear Intelligence Assessment. PhD diss., Princeton University.Google Scholar
Brands, Hal. 2006. Rethinking Nonproliferation: LBJ, the Gilpatric Committee, and US National Security Policy. Journal of Cold War Studies 8 (2):83–113.10.1162/jcws.2006.8.2.83CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Braut-Hegghammer, Malfrid. 2011. Revisiting Osirak: Preventive Attacks and Nuclear Proliferation Risks. International Security 36 (1):101–32.10.1162/ISEC_a_00046CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Butt, Ahsan. 2019. Why Did the United States Invade Iraq in 2003? Security Studies 28 (2):250–85.10.1080/09636412.2019.1551567CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Agency, Central Intelligence. 1960. Validity Study on NIE 100-2-58: Development of Nuclear Capabilities by Fourth Countries: Likelihood and Consequences, Dated 1 July 1958. Available at <https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/document/cia-rdp82m00097r000600020014-9>..>Google Scholar
Coe, Andrew, and Vaynman, Jane. 2015. Collusion and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime. Journal of Politics 77 (4):983–97.10.1086/682080CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cole, Paul. 1994. Sweden Without the Bomb: The Conduct of a Nuclear-Capable Nation Without Nuclear Weapons. RAND.Google Scholar
Debs, Alexandre, and Monteiro, Nuno. 2014. Known Unknowns: Power Shifts, Uncertainty, and War. International Organization 68 (1):1–31.10.1017/S0020818313000192CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, Jeffrey. 2019. War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics. Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, Jeffrey, Lerner, Jennifer, and Zeckhauser, Richard. 2017. Behavioral Consequences of Probabilistic Precision: Experimental Evidence from National Security Professionals. International Organization 71 (4):803–26.10.1017/S0020818317000352CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, Jeffrey, and Zeckhauser, Richard. 2016. Why Assessing Estimative Accuracy Is Feasible and Desirable. Intelligence and National Security 31 (2):178–200.10.1080/02684527.2014.980534CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartner, Scott Sigmund. 2013. All Mistakes Are Not Equal: Intelligence Errors and National Security. Intelligence and National Security 28 (5):634–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gavin, Francis. 2015. Strategies of Inhibition: US Grand Strategy, the Nuclear Revolution, and Nonproliferation. International Security 40 (1):9–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerzhoy, Gene. 2015. Alliance Coercion and Nuclear Restraint: How the United States Thwarted West Germany's Nuclear Ambitions. International Security 39 (4):91–129.10.1162/ISEC_a_00198CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gibbons, Rebecca Davis. 2020. Supply to Deny: The Benefits of Nuclear Assistance for Nuclear Nonproliferation. Journal of Global Security Studies 5 (2):282–98.10.1093/jogss/ogz059CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 2006. Reports, Politics, and Intelligence Failures: The Case of Iraq. Journal of Strategic Studies 29 (1):3–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 2010. Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War. Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Jonter, Thomas. 2001. Sweden and the Bomb: The Swedish Plans to Acquire Nuclear Weapons, 1945–1972. SKI Report 01:33.Google Scholar
Kent, Sherman. 1994. Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates: Collected Essays. CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence, Washington, DC. Available at <https://www.cia.gov/static/c04dcfa20465147effabe492a1df4612/sherman-kent-and-the-board-of-national-estimates-collected-essays.pdf>.Google Scholar
Koch, Lisa. 2019. Frustration and Delay: The Secondary Effects of Supply-Side Proliferation Controls. Security Studies 28 (4):773–806.10.1080/09636412.2019.1631383CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kreps, Sarah, and Fuhrmann, Matthew. 2011. Attacking the Atom: Does Bombing Nuclear Facilities Affect Proliferation? Journal of Strategic Studies 34 (2):161–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levy, Jack. 1994. Learning and Foreign Policy: Sweeping a Conceptual Minefield. International Organization 48 (2):279–312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Long, Austin, and Shifrinson, Joshua. 2019. How Long Until Midnight? Intelligence-Policy Relations and the United States Response to the Israeli Nuclear Program, 1959–1985. Journal of Strategic Studies 42 (1):55–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lowenthal, Mark. 2008. Towards a Reasonable Standard for Analysis: How Right, How Often on Which Issues? Intelligence and National Security 23 (3):303–15.10.1080/02684520802121190CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mandel, David. 2015. Accuracy of Intelligence Forecasts from the Intelligence Consumer's Perspective. Policy Insights from the Behavioral and Brain Sciences 2 (1):111–20.10.1177/2372732215602907CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mandel, David, and Barnes, Alan. 2014. Accuracy of Forecasts in Strategic Intelligence. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (30):10984–89.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mearsheimer, John. 2001. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. Norton.Google Scholar
Mehta, Rupal. 2020. Delaying Doomsday: The Politics of Nuclear Reversal. Oxford University Press.10.1093/oso/9780190077976.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, Nicholas L. 2014. The Secret Success of Nonproliferation Sanctions. International Organization 68 (4):913–44.10.1017/S0020818314000216CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Montgomery, Alexander, and Mount, Adam. 2014. Misestimation: Explaining US Failures to Predict Nuclear Weapons Programs. Intelligence and National Security 29 (3):357–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Montgomery, Alexander, and Sagan, Scott. 2009. The Perils of Predicting Proliferation. Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (2):302–28.10.1177/0022002708330581CrossRefGoogle Scholar
National Security Archive. 2005. National Intelligence Estimates of the Nuclear Proliferation Problem. Electronic Briefing Book 155, edited by William Burr. Available at <https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu//NSAEBB/NSAEBB155/>..>Google Scholar
National Security Archive. 2012. Declassified 1964 National Intelligence Estimate Predicts India's Bomb but Not Israel's. Electronic Briefing Book 401, edited by William Burr. Available at <https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb401/>..' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=National+Security+Archive.+2012.+Declassified+1964+National+Intelligence+Estimate+Predicts+India's+Bomb+but+Not+Israel's.+Electronic+Briefing+Book+401,+edited+by+William+Burr.+Available+at+.>Google Scholar
Nutt, Cullen. 2019. Proof of the Bomb: The Influence of Previous Failure on Intelligence Judgments of Nuclear Programs. Security Studies 28 (2):321–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rabinowitz, Or. 2014. Bargaining on Nuclear Tests: Washington and Its Cold War Deals. Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Richelson, Jeffrey. 2007. Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and North Korea. Norton.Google Scholar
Rosato, Sebastian. 2014/2015. The Inscrutable Intentions of Great Powers. International Security 39 (3):48–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rovner, Joshua. 2011. Fixing the Facts: National Security and the Politics of Intelligence. Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schneider, Jonas. 2020. Predicting Nuclear Weapons Proliferation. In The Politics and Science of Prevision, edited by Wenger, Andreas, Jasper, Ursula, and Cavelty, Myriam Dunn, 194–212. Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singh, Sonali and Way, Christopher. 2004. The Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation: A Quantitative Test. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (6):859–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Solingen, Etel, ed. 2012. Sanctions, Statecraft, and Nuclear Proliferation. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stasny, Bradley, and Lehner, Paul. 2018. Comparative Evaluation of the Forecast Accuracy of Analysis Reports and a Prediction Market. Judgment and Decision Making 13 (2):202–11.Google Scholar
Tetlock, Philip. 2005. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Tetlock, Philip, and Mellers, Barbara. 2011. Intelligent Management of Intelligence Agencies: Beyond Accountability Ping-Pong. American Psychologist 66 (6):542–54.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
US Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee. 1961. Post-Mortem on SNIE 100-8-60: Implications of the Acquisition by Israel of a Nuclear Weapons Capability, 31 January. Available at <http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/121959>..>Google Scholar
Way, Christopher, and Weeks, Jessica. 2014. Making It Personal: Regime Type and Nuclear Proliferation. American Journal of Political Science 58 (3):705–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wheaton, Kristan. 2012. The Revolution Begins on Page Five: The Changing Nature of NIEs. International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 25 (2):330–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whitlark, Rachel. 2017. Nuclear Beliefs: A Leader-Focused Theory of Counter-Proliferation. Security Studies 26 (4):545–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yarhi-Milo, Keren. 2013. In the Eye of the Beholder: How Leaders and Intelligence Communities Assess the Intentions of Adversaries. International Security 38 (1):7–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yarhi-Milo, Keren. 2014. Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Yusuf, Mooed. 2009. Predicting Proliferation: The History of the Future of Nuclear Weapons. Policy Paper 11, Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Miller et al. Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/BI4FJW
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Miller et al. supplementary material

Online appendix

Download Miller et al. supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 817.5 KB