Barriers to developing futures literacy in organisations

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2021.102799

Futures

Volume 132, September 2021, 102799

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2021.102799 Get rights and content

Highlights

•
Futures literacy questions norms, cognitive bias and predisposed paradigms.
•
Change seen as a resource rather than an enemy of planning.
•
Becoming aware of non-conscious assumptions enables future-driven innovation.
•
Leveraging the future’s web of innovative opportunities and risk management.
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Futures literacy will likely witness barriers when developed in organisations.

Abstract

We live in an age of transition driven by technological opportunities, and the speed with which industries are disrupted accelerates. For organisations, the consequences of these changes are to replace static capabilities with dynamic capabilities, such as futures literacy. This paper explores the concept of futures literacy and identifies some of the barriers to developing futures literacy in organisations. As research related to futures literacy is still in its infant stage, no existing research has identified barriers to developing futures literacy in organisations. This article aims to make that contribution to advance this field of study and provide understanding of where best to invest to overcome such barriers. Due to the nature of futures literacy and its relation to foresight, we put forward the hypothesis that for all its merits, futures literacy may be faced with several barriers when developed in organisations, such as organisational culture, lack of experience, mental models, measurability and clarity on investment. We explore this hypothesis through a literature review on barriers to develop foresight in organisations, combined with an additional literature review on barriers to enhance learning environments in organisations, followed by a single retrospective case study to test if the identified barriers are present.

Section snippets

Introduction: is futures literacy relevant for organisations?

In rapidly changing markets, it is becoming increasingly challenging for organisations to maintain their competitive advantage. In a historical perspective, Barney’s (1991) resource-based view contributes to the understanding of how organisations’ internal structures and performances are configured uniquely to achieve and sustain competitive advantages. These resources translate into competitive advantages if they are valuable, rare, inimitable and non-substitutable. However, the resource-based

Literature review

Sections 2.1 and 2.2 explore barriers to anticipation-for-the-future in organisations through literature reviews. Each barrier is marked in italics. Section 2.3 synthesises expected barriers for developing futures literacy in organisations and subjoins a retrospective single-case study, where the futures literacy framework was introduced in and evaluated by an organisation, and Section 2.4 discusses the findings.

Concluding remarks

As futures literacy may have significant value for organisations (Miller, 2018), exploring how to introduce futures literacy and what barriers organisations might face in this endeavour is of critical importance. This paper seeks to shed light on some of the expected barriers one is likely to face, so futures and foresight practitioners can adjust accordingly and provide better learning environments for developing futures literacy in organisations. A departure was taken in the questioning of

Acknowledgements

The resources allocated to write this article is financed by the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies. This work did not receive any specific grants from funding agencies in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.

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As a particular subfield of futures studies, foresight evaluation has not yet been thoroughly studied. This paper investigates research on foresight evaluation, reviewing authors, articles, journals, topics, evaluative elements, and foresight frames. We analyzed 186 academic papers published over the past 30 years. The analysis shows that foresight evaluation, which originated in Europe and partly diffused to North America and Asia, is still an emerging discipline. Research on the evaluation of foresight has covered four topics: 1) Project for Policy, 2) Future Methodology, 3) Technology, and 4) Future Impact; studies in these areas show that there is currently no active research on topics other than technology. Each of these four topics encompasses traditional evaluative elements, such as impact and quality, but few studies reflect the hopeful element of learning. Also, the results of our analysis show that the predictive and planning frames are in high demand, while less predictable frames are not. This study elucidates the reasons behind the inactive state of foresight evaluation research. This paper argues that both researchers and decision-makers have an important role in overcoming this inertia and finding new paths for continuing the development of foresight evaluation.
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View full text

Barriers to developing futures literacy in organisations

Highlights

Abstract

Section snippets

Introduction: is futures literacy relevant for organisations?

Literature review

Concluding remarks

Acknowledgements

2018 corporate longevity forecast; Creative destruction is accelerating

Innosight; strategy and innovation at Huron

Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage

Journal of Management

Strategic foresight and organizational learning: A survey and critical analysis

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Learning with scenarios: Summary and critical issues

Advances in Developing Human Resources

Systems thinking, organizational change and agency: a practice theory critique of Senge’s learning organization

Journal of Change Management

Organisations and the business environment

Corporate learning, predictions, observations & trends. Enterprise learning 2018 annual report

An organization learning framework: From intuition to Institution

The Academy of Management Review

Think critically

The cambridge handbook of creativity and personality research

Policy-oriented foresight as a tool for strategic policy-making. An assessment of opportunities and difficulties

50 Years of corporate and organizational foresight: Looking back and going forward

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Resolving the moral impediments to foresight action

Foresight

An organizational futurist role for integrating foresight into corporations

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Developing a learning culture – Empowering people to deliver quality, innovation and long-tern success

Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk

Econometrica

Future driven innovation

The politics of organizational learning: Integrating power into the 4I framework

The Academy of Management Review

Foresight activities in the U.S.A.: Time for a re-assessment

Strategic planning for public service and non-profit organizations

Transforming the Future; Anticipation in the 21st century

The challenge of organizational learning

Stanford Social Innovation Review

Taking stock in creativity research

Creativity Research Journal