Impact of re-election on development in India: a comparative analysis of leading and lagging states

The purpose of this paper is to examine political accountability to the voter in India by studying re-election patterns in 14 major states categorized as leading and lagging during the period 1952–2015.

This study has computed a state-wise re-election index by taking the ratio of the number of constituencies exhibiting re-election in four consecutive terms during 1952–1999 to the total number of constituencies in the state. The time-invariant re-election index as of the year 1999 is used to estimate the impact of the re-election on per capita state income during 2001–2015. This paper has used the correlated random effects estimation procedure that considers the state-specific unobserved factors while using a time-invariant regressor to ascertain the impact of re-election.

This study finds that persistent re-election does not seem to lead to better development outcomes. When this study computes the re-election index by excluding constituencies that are underdeveloped both in the economic and social spheres, this paper finds the asymmetric impact of re-election for the leading and the lagging states. The findings suggest that historical institutions in the laggings states could be driving the empirical results. The empirical findings are corroborated by the relatively poor availability of basic amenities in constituencies exhibiting persistent re-election when compared to the state average.

The findings suggest that the provision of re-election without term limits may need to be revisited in the lagging states for better political accountability.

First, the authors study the pattern of constituency-wise re-election to compute state-wise re-election index to capture persistent re-election. Second, the authors assess the development status of a constituency by mapping it to the development indicators of the district in which the constituency is located. This paper considers both economic as well social indicators of development. Third, the time-invariant nature of the re-election index helps to address reverse causality while studying the impact of re-election on development. Fourth, the authors use a novel econometric methodology to study the impact of the re-election on development given the time-invariant characteristic of the re-election index.