Integrated modelling of cost-effective policies to regulate Western Corn Rootworm under climate scenarios in Austria

Highlights

• Integrated land use modelling of Diabrotica v.v. (WCR) regulation policies.

• Cost-effectiveness ratios rank the performance of WCR regulation policies.

• Crop rotations are effective to control WCR in Austria.

• Climate change increases spatial variability of policy opportunity costs.

• The integrated modelling framework proves useful in WCR policy support.

Abstract

The continuous spread of the invasive Western Corn Rootworm (WCR; Diabrotica virgifera virgifera) poses a threat to maize production regions. We develop a spatially explicit integrated modelling framework to analyse the performance of cost-effective WCR regulation policies for 2010–2040 at 1 km spatial resolution in Austria. A modelled future baseline WCR abundance is used to design 15 alternative WCR regulation policies differing in regional delineation, risk propensity, and maize restriction levels. We calculate cost-effectiveness ratios to rank the overall performance of alternative WCR regulation policies considering three climate scenarios and two policy implementation levels. The model results show that with the best performing WCR regulation policy, reducing 1 ha high WCR abundance area comes with a decrease in total net returns of 112 €, assuming optimal cropland use under similar climate conditions. Moreover, marginal opportunity costs of policy compliance (costs for switching to the second-best alternative) vary spatially, by policy configuration, and among climate scenarios. According to the results, wetter climate conditions lead to higher and drier climate conditions to lower marginal opportunity costs compared to climate conditions similar to the past. The analysis provides a sound basis for cost-effective policy design and implementation to regulate WCR infestation.