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Spline interpolation as a way of mapping pollen emission sources

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Abstract

The article develops a new method of spatiotemporal modelling of possible locations of ragweed areas and estimation of pollen emission intensity of these areas. The method uses spline approximation with automatic computations of typical pollen production models in the R language. It applies a number of approaches eliminating the uncertainty of various parameters that should be taken into consideration for this modelling. The authors have consolidated some experimental data on the amount of Ambrosia pollen in the air depending on environmental conditions, and found some new possible ragweed pollen sources on the territory of the city of Vinnytsia and the adjacent villages. The study used spline approximation of the first (lines) and second (parabolas) orders were applied. Data of bi-hourly pollen concentrations were obtained at the pollen monitoring site of National Pirogov Memorial Medical University (Vinnytsia). To perform the approximation, wind speed, wind direction and relative humidity were taken into the consideration. The authors used the polar coordinate system to formalize the problem. PRA Finder computer program was developed, which has been successfully tested on real data and for which a certificate of copyright registration has been obtained in Ukraine. As a result of the method application, the known areas were corroborated and new possible plots were revealed. The comparison of the forecasted areas for 2014 with the actual ones showed a close match. However, it should be taken into consideration that the proposed method is viable only when applied under the condition that the wind velocity does not exceed 4 m/sec and the relative humidity is between 20 and 90%.

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Availability of data and material

Authors declare that all the data used for this study were either the intellectual property of the authors or obtained from the available sources.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Aliona Dratsion for editing this article. The authors would like to thank Aliona Dratsion and Tetiana Neprytska, PhD, for editing this article.

Funding

The study was supported by the statutory funds of the Scientific Research Center of the National Pirogov Memorial Medical University, Vinnytsya and by the Department of System analysis and information technologies of the Vinnytsia National Technical University.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Pirogov Memorial Medical University, Vinnytsya, Vinnytsia, Ukraine

    V. Rodinkova

  2. Vinnytsia National Technical University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine

    V. Mokin, T. Vuzh & M. Dratovanyj

Authors
  1. V. Rodinkova
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  2. V. Mokin
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  3. T. Vuzh
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  4. M. Dratovanyj
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Contributions

V. Rodinkova—pollen count data, manuscript concept, editing, reviewing; V. Mokin—spline interpolation application, methodology, its step-by-step explanation; T. Vuzh—writing the first draft of the manuscript, editing, reviewing, investigation and mapping of areas, infested by ragweed; M. Dratovanyj—R language programming, performance of simulation.

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Correspondence to V. Rodinkova.

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Rodinkova, V., Mokin, V., Vuzh, T. et al. Spline interpolation as a way of mapping pollen emission sources. Aerobiologia 37, 695–706 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10453-021-09707-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10453-021-09707-6

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