Abstract
Afghanistan has been subjected to many disastrous earthquakes in the past as it is situated in a seismically vigorous region. The converging edge of the Arabian, Indian, and Eurasian plates accounts for the high seismicity of the region. An Mw 7.5 earthquake hit northern areas of Afghanistan along with Pakistan on the October 26, 2015, with its epicenter positioned in the Hindu Kush (HK) region of Afghanistan at 45 km southwest of Jarm. Resulting in 115 deaths and impairment to 7679 buildings, the earthquake was of an intermediate depth (210 km), which was instigated from reverse faulting. In the current investigation, we investigated the instrumental earthquake data acquired from the multiple data sources for the period of ugust 4, 2015 to March 27, 2016 and from the main earthquake catalog; the aftershocks were classified by exploiting Reasenberg’s algorithm. Numerous histograms of time, the hour of the day, depth, and magnitude have been formulated for explaining the disparity of aftershocks. The foremost inconsistency happens within the 3 days after a mainshock of the HK 2015 earthquake, as disclosed by the outcomes. The Gutenberg-Richter law was exploited to analyze the size dissemination of aftershocks, and the observed value of b is 1.02 + / −0.06. In and around the epicenter of the HK 2015 earthquake, for the depiction of the decay proportions of aftershock sequences, Omori-Utsu law was exercised. The “p value,” which is the decay component, is computed to be 1.46 + / −0.08.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aki K (1965) Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N= a-bM and its confidence limits. Bull Earthq Res Inst Tokyo Univ 43:237–239
Ambraseys N, Bilham R (2003) Earthquakes and associated deformation in northern Baluchistan 1892–2001. Bull Seismol Soc Am 93(4):1573–1605
Armenian HK et al (1997) Deaths and injuries due to the earthquake in Armenia: a cohort approach. Int J Epidemiol 26(4):806–813
Aslam B, Naseer F (2020) A statistical analysis of the spatial existence of earthquakes in Balochistan: clusters of seismicity. Environ Earth Sci 79:41. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8790-2
Aslam B, Zafar A, Khalil U et al (2021a) Seismic activity prediction of the northern part of Pakistan from novel machine learning technique. J Seismol 25:639–652. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-021-09982-3
Aslam B, Zafar A, Qureshi UA et al (2021b) Seismic investigation of the northern part of Pakistan using the statistical and neural network algorithms. Environ Earth Sci 80:59. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-09348-x
Bortnik J et al (2008) The possible statistical relation of Pc1 pulsations to Earthquake occurrence at low latitudes. Ann Geophys 26(9):2825–2836
Boyd OS et al (2007) Preliminary earthquake hazard map of Afghanistan. US Geol Surv Open-File Rep 2007:1137
Bufe CG (1970) Frequency-magnitude variations during the 1970 Danville earthquake swarm. Earthquake Notes 41(3):3–7
Chan CH, Wu YM (2013) Maximum magnitudes in aftershock sequences in Taiwan. J Asian Earth Sci 73:409–418
Chmyriov, V.M. and Mirzad, S.H., 1972. Geological map of Afghanistan, 1: 1,000,000. Royal Government of Afghanistan
CRED, U., 2016. Poverty & death: disaster mortality, 1996–2015. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters: Brussels, Belgium
Cutter SL, Boruff BJ, Shirley WL (2003) Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Soc Sci Q 84(2):242–261
Drakatos G, Latoussakis J (2001) A catalog of aftershock sequences in Greece (1971–1997): their spatial and temporal characteristics. J Seismolog 5(2):137–145
Enarson E et al (2003) Working with women at risk: practical guidelines for assessing local disaster risk. International Hurricane Center, Florida International University, Florida
Gibowicz SJ (1973) Variation of the frequency-magnitude relation during earthquake sequences in New Zealand. Bull Seismol Soc Am 63(2):517–528
Guo Z, Ogata Y (1997) Statistical relations between the parameters of aftershocks in time, space, and magnitude. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 102(B2):2857–2873
Gutenberg B, Richter CF (1944) Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bull Seismol Soc Am 34(4):185–188
Huggel C et al (2015) How useful and reliable are disaster databases in the context of climate and global change? a comparative case study analysis in Peru. Nat Hazard 15(3):475–485
Ismail N, Khattak N (2016) Building typologies prevalent in Northern Pakistan and their performance during the 2015 Hindu Kush Earthquake. Earthq Spectra 32(4):2473–2493
Khan PK, Chakraborty PP (2007) The seismic b-value and its correlation with Bouguer gravity anomaly over the Shillong Plateau area: tectonic implications. J Asian Earth Sci 29(1):136–147
Kisslinger C, Jones LM (1991) Properties of aftershock sequences in southern California. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 96(B7):11947–11958
Kolathayar S, Sitharam TG (2012) Comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of the Andaman-Nicobar regions. Bull Seismol Soc Am 102(5):2063–2076
Kumar A et al (2013) Theb-value and fractal dimension of local seismicity around Koyna Dam (India). Earthq Sci 26(2):99–105
Lolli B, Gasperini P (2003) Aftershocks hazard in Italy Part I: estimation of time-magnitude distribution model parameters and computation of probabilities of occurrence. J Seismolog 7(2):235–257
Menon A et al (2004) Seismic hazard assessment of the historical site of Jam in Afghanistan and stability analysis of the minaret. J Earthquake Eng 8(spec01):251–294
Mikumo T, Miyatake T (1979) Earthquake sequences on a frictional fault model with non-uniform strengths and relaxation times. Geophys J Int 59(3):497–522
Mogi, K., 1962. Study of elastic shocks caused by the fracture of heterogeneous materials and its relations to earthquake phenomena. 東京大學地震研究所彙報= Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 40(1): 125–173
Mu JE, Chen Y (2016) Impacts of large natural disasters on regional income. Nat Hazards 83(3):1485–1503
Noy I (2009) The macroeconomic consequences of disasters. J Dev Econ 88(2):221–231
Nuannin, P., 2006. The potential of b-value variations as earthquake precursors for small and large events (Doctoral dissertation, Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis)
Ogata, Y., 1999. Seismicity analysis through point-process modeling: A review. In Seismicity patterns, their statistical significance and physical meaning: 471–507. Birkhäuser, Basel
Omori, F., 1894. On the after-shocks of earthquakes, Vol 7. The University
Öncel AO, Alptekin Ö (1999) Effect of aftershocks on earthquake hazard estimation: an example from the North Anatolian fault zone. Nat Hazards 19(1):1–11
Osaki Y, Minowa M (2001) Factors associated with earthquake deaths in the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake, 1995. Am J Epidemiol 153(2):153–156
Peek-Asa C et al (2003) Seismic, structural, and individual factors associated with earthquake related injury. Inj Prev 9(1):62–66
Quittmeyer RC, Jacob KH (1979) Historical and modern seismicity of Pakistan, Afghanistan, northwestern India, and southeastern Iran. Bull Seismol Soc Am 69(3):773–823
Ramirez M, Peek-Asa C (2005) Epidemiology of traumatic injuries from earthquakes. Epidemiol Rev 27(1):47–55
Reasenberg P (1985) Second-order moment of central California seismicity, 1969–1982. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 90(B7):5479–5495
Reasenberg PA, Jones LM (1989) Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in California. Science 243(4895):1173–1176
Rehman K, Qadri SMT, Ali A et al (2016) Analysis of the devastating Kashmir earthquake 2005 aftershocks. Arab J Geosci 9:379. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-016-2418-6
Ruleman, C. A., et al., 2007. Map and database of probable and possible Quaternary faults in Afghanistan. US Geological Survey open-file report, 1103(1)
Shome, N., et al., 2014, July. Aftershock risks such as those demonstrated by the recent events in New Zealand and Japan. In Tenth US National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Frontiers of Earthquake Engineering July: 21–25
Swathi JM (2015) The profile of disaster risk of Pakistan and institutional response. Emerg Disaster Rep 2(1):2–55
Tinti S, Mulargia F (1985) An improved method for the analysis of the completeness of a seismic catalogue. Lett Nuovo Cimento 42:21–27. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02739471
Urbancic T et al (1992) Space-time correlations of b values with stress release. Pure Appl Geophys 139(3–4):449–462
USGS, 2005. Event Page: Magnitude 7.6 - Pakistan, United States Geological Survey, Reston, V.A
USGS, 2015a. ANSS Comprehensive Catalog and Important Caveats, United States Geological Survey, Reston, V.A
USGS, 2015b. Event page: M7.5 - 45km E of Farkhar, Afghanistan, United States Geological Survey, Reston, V.A
Utsu T (1961) A statistical study on the occurrence of aftershocks. Geophys Mag 30:521–605
Utsu T, Ogata Y (1995) The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity. J Phys Earth 43(1):1–33
Waseem M, Khan MA, Khan S (2019) Seismic sources for southern Pakistan and seismic hazard assessment of Karachi. Nat Hazards 99:511–536. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03755-5
Wheeler, R. L., et al., 2005. Seismotectonic map of Afghanistan, with annotated bibliography. US Department of the Interior, US Geological Survey
Wiemer S, Katsumata K (1999) Spatial variability of seismicity parameters in aftershock zones. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 104(B6):13135–13151
Wiemer S, Wyss M (2000) Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs: examples from Alaska, the western United States, and Japan. Bull Seismol Soc Am 90(4):859–869
Woessner J, Wiemer S (2005) Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues: estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty. Bull Seismol Soc Am 95(2):684–698
Wyss M (1973) Towards a physical understanding of the earthquake frequency distribution. Geophys J Int 31(4):341–359
Yeats, ROBERT S., et al., 1979. Surface effects of the 16 March 1978 earthquake, Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Geodynamics of Pakistan : 359–361.
Zhang, P., et al., 1999. Global seismic hazard assessment program (GSHAP) in continental Asia
Acknowledgements
The authors of this research are obliged to anonymous reviewers and editors for their supportive remarks.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no competing interest.
Additional information
Technical Editor: Eleftheria Papadimitriou.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Khalil, U., Aslam, B. & Maqsoom, A. Afghanistan earthquake 2015 aftershocks analysis for a better understanding of the seismicity behavior for future assessment. Acta Geophys. 69, 1189–1197 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-021-00624-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-021-00624-3