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Explaining firms’ earnings announcement stock returns using FactSet and I/B/E/S data feeds

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A Correction to this article was published on 19 August 2021

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Abstract

Since 2001, the number of financial statement line items forecasted by analysts and managers that I/B/E/S and FactSet capture in their data feeds has soared. Using this new data, we find that 13 item surprises—11 income statement-based and 2 cash flow statement-based analyst and management guidance surprises—reliably explain firms’ signed earnings announcement returns. No balance sheet or expense surprises are significant. The most important surprises are (i) one-quarter-ahead sales guidance surprise, (ii) analyst sales surprise, (iii) annual Street earnings guidance surprise, and (iv) analyst Street earnings surprise. We also find that the adjusted R2s of our multivariate regressions are three times higher than the adjusted R2s of univariate Street earnings surprise regressions, and that the four most important surprises account for approximately half of this increase in explanatory power.

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Data availability

Data are available from the sources cited in the text.

Change history

Notes

  1. The notion of Street earnings surprise was introduced into the academic literature by Bradshaw and Sloan (2002).

  2. FactSet is a multinational financial data and software company that was founded in 1977 and went public in 1996. I/B/E/S (Institutional Brokers’ Estimates System) was founded by Lynch, Jones & Ryan and Technimetrics and began collecting earnings estimates for US companies in 1976. Barra bought I/B/E/S in 1993, then sold it to Primark in 1995. Thomson Financial (now Thomson Reuters) bought Primark in 2000. We focus on FactSet and I/B/E/S because they are the largest providers of analyst forecast and management guidance online data feeds to US capital markets.

  3. A key part of FactSet’s strategy has been to combine with its own databases the disparate databases of many smaller data vendors that it has acquired. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FactSet.

  4. The FactSet and I/B/E/S analyst forecast data feeds differ in how the data are collected. I/B/E/S data are supplied to I/B/E/S by analysts, while FactSet’s data are primarily gathered manually from analysts’ PDF reports by FactSet employees. This means that the databases are subject to different sources of bias and/or error. I/B/E/S history data constitute at root a voluntary disclosure that for a variety of strategic or other reasons may not exactly reflect the contents of analysts’ PDF reports or full Excel-based financial models. However, the strengths of the I/B/E/S approach are that there is less ambiguity about what analysts are forecasting (since they supply information directly to I/B/E/S in a standardized manner) and that analysts can supply I/B/E/S with better information than they disclose in their PDF reports. In contrast, since FactSet estimates are manually extracted from analysts’ reports, analysts are not able to choose to supply different information in their reports versus their database feeds. Potentially offsetting this advantage is the risk that FactSet employees may misinterpret analysts’ PDFs and/or incorrectly enter the data they contain.

  5. We do not undertake separate analysis on FactSet and I/B/E/S data, because each dataset has been built up over time as FactSet and Thomson Reuters have acquired smaller data providers.

  6. In an untabulated analysis, we include KPI surprises in our annual regressions of earnings announcement returns on analyst forecast and guidance surprises. We find no significant improvement in the overall explanatory power (i.e., adjusted R2) of the model. There are no changes in our top four ranked surprises. The 13 non-KPI surprises with average t-statistics above 1.95 between 2008 and 2016 remain significant. We find 1 KPI, same-store sales for the retail industry, that has an average t-statistic above 1.95 during the 2008–2016 period. Same-store sales data are available for approximately 50–80 firms per quarter.

  7. We require that the analyst consensus period begin no earlier than the first day of the quarter forecasted and no later than the earnings announcement date, and that the earnings announcement date be within 150 days of the quarter-end.

  8. Of the non-KPI item observations that we use in our analysis, 60% are from FactSet and 40% are from I/B/E/S. All KPI items are from FactSet because we did not have access to I/B/E/S KPIs.

  9. Three Items are omitted from appendix 1 because we require item surprises to be available for at least 5% of our sample firms in a given year. The Items that do not meet that threshold in any year are ITEM 5 – “Deferred Revenue – Short Term,” ITEM 7 – “Deferred Revenue – Long Term,” and ITEM14 – “Stock Option Expense.”

  10. We caution against reading figure 1 as suggesting that FactSet adds very little beyond I/B/E/S, or vice versa. This is because we use historical data feeds as of early 2017, and both FactSet and I/B/E/S regularly add to their data feeds forecasts that were available in real time from other vendors’ data feeds but not from their own.

  11. Chuk et al. (2013) hand-collect the actual provision of management forecasts. They find an increase in management forecasts between 1997 and 2001 (implementation of Regulation FD) but a relatively flat or declining trend between 2001 and 2007.

  12. We base our assessment of significance on t-statistics because in panel B the correlation between t-statistics and incremental R2 is 0.98.

  13. Guidance firms are those with at least one guidance surprise available at the earnings announcement. High-revenue-growth firms are those whose prior-quarter sales are ≥10% higher than their sales four quarters earlier. Data on sales growth are not available for all firms in our sample. Street-profit firms are those for which the Street earnings announced at the earnings announcement are >0.

  14. The items that Value Line Investment Survey has created and maintained in its Estimates and Projections File, a commercially available database, are sales, earnings, dividends, CAPEX, operating margin, depreciation, income tax rate, working capital, long-term debt, return on equity, and return on total capital. We choose to use the IUF data feed in our analysis for three reasons. First, Value Line’s forecasts are for annual periods, not quarterly periods (e.g., current-year EPS, or one-year-ahead sales revenue). There are therefore no quarterly line item surprises to calculate at a firm’s first-, second-, or third-quarter earnings announcements. Second, each of Value Line’s 1700 stocks has its forecasts updated on a set schedule only every 13 weeks. Value Line’s forecasts are therefore likely staler than those of FactSet and I/B/E/S. Third, quantitative equity hedge funds trade far more on quarterly signals than on annual signals. This makes FactSet’s and I/B/E/S’s continuously updated, online one-quarter-ahead consensus analyst forecast data feeds much more appealing to them than Value Line’s annual horizon forecasts.

  15. Revenue forecasts: Bradshaw et al. (2018), Clark and Elgers (1973), Ertimur et al. (2003), Ertimur et al. (2011), Jegadeesh and Livnat (2006), Jones (2007), Keung (2010), Rees and Sivaramakrishnan (2007), Schreuder and Klaassen (1984), Swanson et al. (1985), and Trueman et al. (2001). Cash flow forecasts: Brown and Christensen (2014), Call et al. (2009, 2013), DeFond and Hung (2003), DeFond et al. (2007), Givoly et al. (2009), McInnis and Collins (2011), Mohanram (2014), and Radhakrishnan and Wu (2014). We identified four papers outside of the top five accounting journals: Brown et al. (2013), Lerman et al. (2007), Pae and Yoon (2011) and Yoon and Pae (2013). We also identified two recent working papers: Calegari and Eames (2016) and Ohlson et al. (2016). Also, Givoly et al. (2019) explore the information content of I/B/E/S’s KPI analyst forecasts, which we do not include in our study.

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Acknowledgment

We appreciate the comments of Mark Bradshaw, Ole-Kristian Hope, Morten Jensen (Discussant), Peter Joos, Bjorn Jorgensen, Jim Ryans, Richard Sloan, and workshop participants at the Aarhus University, London Business School, IESE, the Third Annual Scandinavian Accounting Research Conference, and UNC–Chapel Hill.

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Funding

Alastair Lawrence thanks the University of California at Berkeley Hellman Family Faculty Fund Award for funding support.

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Appendices

Appendix 1

Listing of the full set of non-KPI data items in the FactSet, I/B/E/S, and union of I/B/E/S and FactSet (IUF) data feeds. FactSet Measures are listed in the left-hand section, along with their FactSet codes and the number of firm-quarters for which there is a consensus surprise for each Measure (n = 57). The middle section presents I/B/E/S Measures along with their I/B/E/S codes and the number of firm-quarters for which there is a consensus surprise for each Measure (n = 18). In the right-hand section, the FactSet and I/B/E/S Measures are manually consolidated into 26 unique financial statement Items, and we report the number of firm-quarters for which there is a consensus surprise for each Item. We exclude Items that are not well populated, which we define as being present for less than 5% of analyst-covered firms in any given year.

 

FACTSET MEASURE

FACTSET CODEI

# firm-quarters in Sample

 

I/B/E/S MEASURE

I/B/E/S CODE

# firm-quarters in Sample

UNION OF FACTSET AND I/B/E/S

# firm-quarters in Sample

CATEGORY

ITEM #

ITEM NAME

1

Inventories

INVENTORIES

11,451

    

BS

ITEM 1

Inventories

11,451

2

Current Assets

CURRENT_ASSETS

18,953

    

BS

ITEM 2

Current Assets

18,953

3

Total Goodwill

GW_TOT

25,834

    

BS

ITEM 3

Total Goodwill

25,834

4

Total Assets

ASSETS

50,043

    

BS

ITEM 4

Total Assets

50,043

5

Current Liabilities

CURRENT_LIABILITIES

19,046

    

BS

ITEM 6

Current Liabilities

19,046

6

Net Debt

NDT

26,640

1

Net Debt

NDT

47,921

BS

ITEM 8

Debt

53,622

7

Total Debt

TOTAL_DEBT

9746

        

8

Shareholder’s Equity

SH_EQUITY

55,490

    

BS

ITEM 9

Shareholder’s Equity

55,490

9

Book Value Per Share

BPS

44,187

2

Book Value Per Share

BPS

83,149

BS

ITEM 10

Book Value Per Share

88,072

10

Tangible Book Value Per Share

BPS_TANG

16,871

        

11

Sales

SALES

161,459

3

Revenue (Non Per Share)

SAL

223,003

IS

ITEM 11

Sales

230,871

12

Revenue

REV_TOT

1848

        

13

Net Sales

NET_SALES

1508

        

14

Consolidated Sales

SALES_C

19

        

15

Cost of Goods Sold

COGS

65,109

4

Cost of Goods Sold

COGS

86,862

IS

ITEM 12

Cost of Goods Sold

96,013

16

Selling, General and Administrative

SGA

46,095

    

IS

ITEM 13

SG&A Expense

65,779

17

General and Administrative

G_A_EXP

32,413

        

18

Sales and Marketing

S_M_EXP

18,255

        

19

Research and Development

RD_EXP

27,799

    

IS

ITEM 15

Research and Development

27,799

20

EBITDA

EBITDA

75,239

5

EBITDA (Non Per Share)

EBT

99,986

IS

ITEM 16

EBITDA

108,270

    

6

EBITDA Per Share

EBS

27,798

    

21

EBITDA Adjusted

EBITDA_ADJ

22,386

        

22

EBITDA Reported

EBITDA_REP

13,282

        

23

Funds From Operations

FFO

5017

7

Funds From Operations

FFO

5500

    

24

Adjusted Funds From Operations

AFFO

4227

        

25

EBITA

EBITA

1142

        

26

EBITDAR

EBITDAR

965

        

27

Depreciation and Amortization

DEPR_AMORT

37,857

    

IS

ITEM 17

Depreciation and Amortization

37,857

28

EBIT

EBIT

120,607

8

EBIT (Non Per Share)

EBI

114,598

IS

ITEM 18

EBIT

169,554

    

9

Operating Profit (Non Per Share)

OPR

95,768

    

29

EBIT Adjusted

EBIT_ADJ

22,104

        

30

EBIT Reported

EBITR

17,019

        

31

EBIT Consolidated

EBIT_C

23

        

32

Interest Expense

INT_EXP

42,674

    

IS

ITEM 19

Interest Expense

42,674

33

Pre-Tax Income

PTI

128,764

10

Pre-tax Profit (Non Per Share)

PRE

170,455

IS

ITEM 20

Pre-Tax Income

182,838

34

Pre-Tax Profit Reported

PTIAG

25,943

        

35

Pre-Tax Profit Adjusted

PTPA

25,577

        

36

Consolidated Pretax Income

PTI_C

24

        

37

Tax Expense

TAX_EXPENSE

41,258

    

IS

ITEM 21

Tax Expense

41,258

38

Earnings Per Share

EPS

184,956

11

Earnings Per Share

EPS

371,113

IS

ITEM 22

Street Earnings

379,437

39

Net Profit Adjusted

NETBG

79,935

        
    

12

EPS - Before Goodwill

EBG

3497

    
    

13

Cash Earnings Per Share

CSH

90

    

40

EPS Non-GAAP

EPS_NONGAAP

69,799

        

41

EPS Excluding Exceptionals

EPS_EX_XORD

16,466

        

42

Reported EPS

EPS_GAAP

91,581

14

GAAP EPS

GPS

155,726

IS

ITEM 23

GAAP Earnings

204,090

43

Net Profit

NET

136,287

15

Net Income (Non Per Share)

NET

194,189

    

44

Net Income Reported

BFNG

45,661

        

45

Consolidated Net Income

NET_C

26

        

46

Consolidated EPS

EPS_C

25

        

47

Diluted Reported EPS

EPSRD

22

        

48

[No Label]

EPSAD

10

        

49

Cash Flow Per Share

CFPS

31,213

16

Cash Flow Per Share

CPS

42,663

CFS

ITEM 24

Cash Flow From Operations

59,927

50

Cash Flow From Operations

CF_OP

39,620

        

51

Capital Expenditure

CAPEX

43,345

17

Capital Expenditure (Non Per Share)

CPX

52,081

CFS

ITEM 25

Capital Expenditure

57,409

52

Maintenance CAPEX

MAINT_CAPEX

2854

        

53

Free Cash Flow

FCF

32,541

    

CFS

ITEM 26

Free Cash Flow

34,088

54

Free Cash Flow Per Share

FCFPS

20,063

        

55

Cash Flow From Investing

CF_INV

29,205

    

CFS

ITEM 27

Cash Flow From Investing

29,205

56

Cash Flow From Financing

CF_FIN

27,630

    

CFS

ITEM 28

Cash Flow From Financing

27,630

57

Dividends Per Share

DPS

55,031

18

Dividends Per Share

DPS

82,104

CFS

ITEM 29

Dividends Per Share

88,054

Appendix 2

1.1 Definitions of abnormal stock returns and non-KPI variables in the IUF dataset

Subscripts.

m

An element of the set of 223 database Measures (194 in FactSet, 29 in I/B/E/S). Excluding KPIs, the set contains 75 database Measures (57 in FactSet, 18 in I/B/E/S) listed in appendix 1. Each Measure is an element of one and only one Item.

i

An element of the set of 26 researcher-defined financial statement Items listed in appendix 1 for the union of I/B/E/S and FactSet. Each Item is a set of one or more database Measures.

c

An element of the set of 3 researcher-defined Categories listed: Income Statement, Cash Flow Statement, and Balance Sheet.

t

Fiscal period end.

Variable Definitions (listed alphabetically).

ABRET t

Abnormal stock return at earnings announcement for period t. Defined as:

\( Raw\ {Return}_{\left[-1,+1\right]}-{\hat{\alpha}}_{EP}-{\hat{\beta}}_{EP}\ast {Market\ Return}_{\left[-1,+1\right]} \)

where Raw Return[−1,+1] and Market Return[−1,+1] are the 3-day raw return and value-weighted market returns surrounding the earnings announcement for period t;\( {\hat{\alpha}}_{EP} \), \( {\hat{\beta}}_{EP} \), and \( {\hat{\mu}}_{EP} \) are estimates from a regression model that uses 3-day cumulative, nonoverlapping returns observations during the trading-day period [−130,-10), (+10,+130] relative to the earnings announcement day:

Raw Return = αEP + βEP ∗ Market Return + μEP

The variable is winsorized at the 2nd and 98th percentiles.

Analyst Forecast Surprise m,t

Median analyst consensus forecast error in dollars scaled by the Market Value of equity at the end of the day prior to the earnings announcement window. The forecasts are taken from the latest consensus period prior to the earnings announcement for period t and winsorized at ±  10%. Defined as:

\( \frac{\left({Actual}_{m,t}-{Median\ Forecast}_{m,t}\right)}{Market\ Value}. \)

Earnings Announcement t

Defined as the 3-day window < −1, +1 >, where day <0 > is the report date of quarterly earnings (Compustat: rdq) for period t.

Management Guidance Surprise m,t

New management guidance in US dollars for Measure m in period t + 1 reported at the earnings announcement minus the median analyst consensus forecast in dollars for Measure m in period t + 1 as of just prior to the earnings announcement, scaled by Market Value. Period t + 1 is either the next unreported quarter or next unreported fiscal year. The variable is winsorized at ±  10%.

\( \frac{\left( New\ {Guidance}_{m,t+1}- Median\ {Analyst\ Forecast}_{m,t+1}\right)}{Market\ Value} \)

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Hand, J.R.M., Laurion, H., Lawrence, A. et al. Explaining firms’ earnings announcement stock returns using FactSet and I/B/E/S data feeds. Rev Account Stud 27, 1389–1420 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-021-09597-6

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