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The performance of South African exchange traded funds under changing market conditions

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Abstract

Despite the soaring popularity of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), ETFs may find it difficult to replicate the returns of their underlying index under changing market conditions. The objective of this study is to examine the performance of South African ETFs under bullish and bearish market conditions. This paper employs a single index Markov Switching model to examine the tracking efficiency of a sample of ETFs tracking the FTSE/JSE Top 40 (J200) index from 27 November 2000 until 31 July 2019. The findings suggest that, on average, ETFs are more responsive to fluctuations in their underlying index during bullish market conditions and they display a higher tracking error during bearish market conditions. Thus, our findings support the notion that ETF performance differs across market regimes, implying that ETF fund managers should disclose their betas across different market conditions so that ETF investors and traders can adequately evaluate their risk exposures in each market condition.

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Correspondence to Paul-Francois Muzindutsi.

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Appendix 1: Graphical representation of the return series

Appendix 1: Graphical representation of the return series

See Figs.

Fig. 1
figure 1

Daily returns of the TOP40 index (%)

1,

Fig. 2
figure 2

Daily returns of the STX40 ETF (%)

2,

Fig. 3
figure 3

Daily returns of the ASHT40 ETF (%)

3,

Fig. 4
figure 4

Daily returns of the STAN40 ETF (%)

4, and

Fig. 5
figure 5

Daily returns of the SYGT40 ETF (%)

5.

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Kunjal, D., Peerbhai, F. & Muzindutsi, PF. The performance of South African exchange traded funds under changing market conditions. J Asset Manag 22, 350–359 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-021-00227-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-021-00227-z

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