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Response of seasonal phase locking of Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming

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Abstract

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the major climate modes in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), influencing the surrounding climate and society. Under anthropogenic warming, the IOD is modulated by the changes in the ocean–atmosphere coupling in the TIO. This study focuses on the IOD seasonal phase locking, which means that the IOD usually peaks in boreal autumn. Based on high-emission scenario future projections, we found that the IOD phase locking changes substantially under anthropogenic warming. The early onset positive IOD that peaks in boreal summer occurs more frequently in the future climate. Our further investigation reveals that this robust change in IOD phase locking is related to the mean state responses to global warming. The shallower thermocline in the eastern equatorial IO is more suitable for IOD developing, helping IOD strengthen in boreal summer. When the basin-wide IOD pattern has fully developed, by contrast, the weakened atmospheric feedback is not conducive to maintaining zonal sea surface temperature gradient, leading to IOD weakened in boreal autumn. Therefore, the IOD peaks earlier under global warming. The change in IOD phase locking shows a potential impact on the surrounding climate, such as Indian summer monsoon variability.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP5/6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP5/6 and ESGF. The CMIP5/6 multimodel ensemble datasets were from the DOE/LLNL node (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/ and https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/). We obtained the CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and GFDL Large Ensemble (GFDL-LE) datasets from the NCAR Climate Data Gateway (https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/dataset/ucar.cgd.ccsm4.CLIVAR_LE.html). This work is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFA0605704), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41975092) and Shandong Natural Science Foundation Project (ZR2019ZD12). The authors declare they have no financial interests.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography and Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China

    Xiao-Tong Zheng, Jinbi Lu & Chang Hui

  2. Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China

    Xiao-Tong Zheng

  3. Key Laboratory of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate in Universities of Shandong, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China

    Xiao-Tong Zheng, Jinbi Lu & Chang Hui

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  1. Xiao-Tong Zheng
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Correspondence to Xiao-Tong Zheng.

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Zheng, XT., Lu, J. & Hui, C. Response of seasonal phase locking of Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming. Clim Dyn 57, 2737–2751 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05834-5

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