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A comparison of target types, weapon types, and attack types in suicide-terrorism incidents before and after 9/11 terrorist attacks

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Abstract

The empirical research on the effects of 9/11 attacks on suicide terrorism is limited. The purpose of this research is to examine the effects of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on attack types, weapon types, and target types in suicide terrorism worldwide and the trends in the suicide attack outcomes before and after 9/11. The data were obtained from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and included suicide-terrorism incidents between 1981 and 2018. The results of monthly interrupted time-series analyses and negative binomial regression tests comparing pre-9/11 and post-9/11 showed that the 9/11 terrorist attacks had significant impacts on the target types, attack types, and weapon types in suicide-terrorism incidents. The results, limitations, and policy implications are discussed.

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Notes

  1. The total number of terrorism incidents would have been higher, but “doubtful terrorism incidents” in the Global Terrorism Database are not included (GTD 2019).

  2. The terms suicide attack and suicide terrorism are used interchangeably in the GTD; however, for consistency, the term suicide terrorism was used in the current study.

  3. According to the GTD (2019), the incidents that did not meet all of the following criteria were deemed doubtful terrorism incidents (GTD 2019, p. 0):

    1. (1)

      “The violent act must be aimed at attaining a political, economic, religious, or social goal.”.

    2. (2)

      “There must be evidence of an intention to coerce, intimidate, or convey some other message to a larger audience (or audiences) than the immediate victims.”.

    3. (3)

      “The action is outside the context of legitimate warfare activities, insofar as it targets non-combatants.” (GTD 2019, pp. 15–16).

  4. The countfit command in Stata was used to determine which model best fit the count data used in the current study. The results are not reported here.

  5. Durbin–Watson d statistic (hereafter d) can take on values between 0 and 4, which indicates no serial correlation if d = 2, positive autocorrelation if d < 2, and negative autocorrelation if d > 2 (Linden2015, p. 491). However, a rule of thumb is that d values in the range of 1.5 to 2.5 are considered to be relatively normal and autocorrelation, therefore, is not a concern (Kenton 2019).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Criminal Justice Department, State University of New York at Plattsburgh, 101 Broad St, Plattsburgh, NY, 12901, USA

    Mustafa Demir

  2. Department of Sociology and Criminology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, USA

    Ahmet Guler

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  1. Mustafa Demir
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Correspondence to Mustafa Demir.

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Appendix: Newly created variables

Appendix: Newly created variables

Original variable

Original attributes

Combined attributes

New created variables

Attack type

   

 1

Assassination

Assassination

Assassination

 2

Armed assault

Armed assault + unarmed assault

Assault (armed/unarmed)

 3

Bombing/explosion

Bombing/explosion

Bombing/explosion

 4

Hijacking

Hijacking + hostage taking [barricade incident] + hostage taking [kidnapping]

Hijacking/hostage taking

 5

Hostage taking [barricade incident]

Facility/infrastructure attack

Facility/infrastructure attack

 6

Hostage taking [kidnapping]

  

 7

Facility/infrastructure attack

  

 8

Unarmed assault

  

 9

Unknown

  

Weapon type

   

 1

Biological+

Chemical

Chemical

 2

Chemical

Firearms

Firearms

 3

Radiological+

Explosives + incendiary

Explosives/incendiary

 4

Nuclear+

Melee

Melee

 5

Firearms

Vehicle (not to include vehicle-borne)

Vehicle

 6

Explosives

  

 7

Fake weapons+

  

 8

Incendiary

  

 9

Melee

  

 10

Vehicle

  

 11

Sabotage equipment+

  

 12

Other

  

 13

Unknown

  

Target type

   

 1

Business

Business

Business

 2

Government [general]

Government [general] + Government [diplomatic]

Government (general/diplomatic)

 3

Police

Police + military

Security forces (military/police)

 4

Military

Airports & aircraft + maritime (includes ports and maritime facilities) + transportation (other than aviation) + telecommunication

Transportation/Telecommunication

 5

Abortion related+

Educational institution + religious figures/institutions + NGO

Institutions (education/religious/NGO)

 6

Airports & aircraft

Food or water supply + utilities

Food or water supply/utilities

 7

Government [diplomatic]

Journalists & media + tourists

Journalists & media/tourists

 8

Educational institution

Private citizens & PROPERTY

Private citizens & property

 9

Food or water supply

Terrorists/non-state militias + violent political parties

Terrorists/non-state militia/violent political parties

 10

Journalists & media

  

 11

Maritime (includes ports & maritime facilities)

  

 12

NGO

  

 13

Other

  

 14

Private citizens & property

  

 15

Religious figures/Institutions

  

 16

Telecommunication

  

 17

Terrorists/non-state militias

  

 18

Tourists

  

 19

Transportation (other than aviation)

  

 20

Unknown

  

 21

Utilities

  

 22

Violent political parties

  

+Attribute does not involve any suicide-terrorism-related incidents and therefore was not considered when new variables were created.

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Demir, M., Guler, A. A comparison of target types, weapon types, and attack types in suicide-terrorism incidents before and after 9/11 terrorist attacks. Secur J 35, 823–848 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-021-00301-6

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