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Power dynamics at the global-regional nexus: examining structural constraints on regional conflict management

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Abstract

How does the interaction of power at the global-regional nexus impact the behavior of regional powers? Neorealism predicts that changes in polarity accompany changes in expectations regarding great power behavior. The cases below consider strategic approaches to crisis mediation pursued by regional powers Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Russia under conditions of bipolarity, unipolarity, and multipolarity to assess the impact of the international system’s structure on regional power behavior. Consistently, the cases in this article show regional powers adopting roles that seek to preempt great power involvement, regardless of the regional power’s orientation toward the system. Even if different polarities generate variations in uncertainty among great powers at the international level, as neorealism predicts, those variations do not filter any clarity regarding great power intentions down to the regional level. This consistency in regional power behavior may provide a baseline for analysis as emerging multipolarity increases the complexity of regional disputes.

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Notes

  1. There are exceptions to this; of particular importance are T. V. Paul’s (ed.) International Relations Theory and Regional Transformation and Gil Merom’s 2003 article, “Realist Hypotheses on Regional Peace.”.

  2. Prys (2012) uses the concept of “powerhood” to describe the characteristics that make regional powers, elevating the state’s self-perceptions as possessing powerhood, the perceptions of its neighbors regarding its role, as well as the actual exercising of a state’s power and the provision of public goods (see 2012, 36). While Prys is primarily concerned with establishing a regional power typology, these same indicators can be used to identify states containing elements of regional powerhood. Possessing some of these qualities may affect the way a state represents itself at the global level, and acts in its regional neighborhood (see Stewart-Ingersoll and Frazier 2012, 69).

  3. This is likely also tied to Saudi Arabia’s emphasis on public diplomacy, as Heibach describes elsewhere in this issue.

  4. Of course, there are certain cases in which we might expect the unipole to be more likely to abstain from intervening militarily, such as in the case of a regional power possessing nuclear weapons (Monteiro 2014). It might also be the case, however, that wider menus for unipolar powers yield greater comfort when assessing regional power expectations about the likelihood of intervention, since there are a range of choices from which the great power can choose and a limited number that it can perform at once. In terms of the likelihood of unipolar intervention, this should matter a great deal (see also Frazier and Sobecki, this issue).

  5. This finding is consistent with the findings of Mesquita and Seabra in this issue. Brazil’s involvement in the case of Colombia focused on the mediation of external disputes connected with the Colombian civil conflict (e.g., the 2008 Ecuador-Colombia crisis). Brazil, having emerged after US interest in the Colombian civil war was piqued, sought to limit US interest and further involvement in South American disputes.

  6. Brazilian regional interest is traditionally ambivalent, and action often occurs in times of instability likely to draw US attention back to the region (see Spektor 2010; Santiso 2003; Hurrell 1992; Merke 2015; Herz and Nogueira 2002). This point is of particular importance, since it suggests that Brazil’s position in the global-regional nexus drives its regional behavior as a custodian only to protect from global infringement into the regional level.

  7. Frazier and Sobecki have demonstrated as much regarding China in their contribution to this special issue.

  8. The balance of power principle is an historically contested one (see Haas 1953, 447–457; Wight 1966).

  9. The author wishes to thank an anonymous reviewer for these questions.

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Hutto, J.W. Power dynamics at the global-regional nexus: examining structural constraints on regional conflict management. Int Polit 61, 60–82 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41311-021-00307-2

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