Reliability analysis for dependent competing failure of harmonic drive with strength failure and stiffness degradation failure

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dependent competing failure reliability of harmonic drive (HD) with strength failure and degradation failure.

Based on life tests and stiffness degradation experiments, Wiener process is used to establish the accelerated performance degradation model of HD. Model parameter distribution is estimated by Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and stiffness degradation failure samples are obtained by a three-step sampling method. Combined with strength failure samples of HD, copula function is used to describe the dependence between strength failure and stiffness degradation failure.

Strength failure occurred earlier than degradation failure under high level accelerated condition; degradation failure occurred earlier than strength failure under medium- or low-level accelerated condition. Gumbel copula is the optimum copula function for dependence modeling of strength failure and stiffness degradation failure. Dependent competing failure reliability of HD is larger than independent competing failure reliability.

The reliability evaluation method of dependent competing failure of HD with strength failure and degradation failure is first proposed. Performance degradation experiments during accelerated life test (ALT), step-down ALT and life test under rated condition are conducted for Wiener process based step-down accelerated performance degradation modeling.