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Drought trend analysis in a semi-arid area of Iraq based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Water Index and Standardized Precipitation Index

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Abstract

Drought was a severe recurring phenomenon in Iraq over the past two decades due to climate change despite the fact that Iraq has been one of the most water-rich countries in the Middle East in the past. The Iraqi Kurdistan Region (IKR) is located in the north of Iraq, which has also suffered from extreme drought. In this study, the drought severity status in Sulaimaniyah Province, one of four provinces of the IKR, was investigated for the years from 1998 to 2017. Thus, Landsat time series dataset, including 40 images, were downloaded and used in this study. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) were utilized as spectral-based drought indices and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed as a meteorological-based drought index, to assess the drought severity and analyse the changes of vegetative cover and water bodies. The study area experienced precipitation deficiency and severe drought in 1999, 2000, 2008, 2009, and 2012. Study findings also revealed a drop in the vegetative cover by 33.3% in the year 2000. Furthermore, the most significant shrinkage in water bodies was observed in the Lake Darbandikhan (LDK), which lost 40.5% of its total surface area in 2009. The statistical analyses revealed that precipitation was significantly positively correlated with the SPI and the surface area of the LDK (correlation coefficients of 0.92 and 0.72, respectively). The relationship between SPI and NDVI-based vegetation cover was positive but not significant. Low precipitation did not always correspond to vegetative drought; the delay of the effect of precipitation on NDVI was one year.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences, Salahaddin University, Erbil in Iraq, for its valuable support in this article. We are also grateful to the United States Geological Survey for gratuitously providing Landsat images. Special thanks are also to the anonymous reviewers, whose comments remarkably contributed to improve the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Surveying and Geomatics Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Tishk International University, Erbil, 44001, Iraq

    Ayad M. F. Al-Quraishi

  2. Department of Forestry, College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences, Salahaddin University, Erbil, 44002, Iraq

    Heman A. Gaznayee

  3. Geodesy and Geomatics Division, Department of Civil, Constructional and Environmental Engineering, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, 00185, Italy

    Mattia Crespi

  4. Sapienza School for Advanced Studies, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, 00185, Italy

    Mattia Crespi

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  1. Ayad M. F. Al-Quraishi
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Correspondence to Ayad M. F. Al-Quraishi.

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Al-Quraishi, A.M.F., Gaznayee, H.A. & Crespi, M. Drought trend analysis in a semi-arid area of Iraq based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Water Index and Standardized Precipitation Index. J. Arid Land 13, 413–430 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-021-0062-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-021-0062-9

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