Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Response of hydrological drought to meteorological drought in the eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Journal of Arid Land Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The hydrographic eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey is a drought sensitive area. The basin is an important agricultural area and it is necessary to determine the extent of extreme regional climatic changes as they occur in this basin. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to show the correlation between standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized streamflow index (SSI) values on different time scales. Data from five meteorological stations and seven stream gauging stations in four sub-basins of the eastern Mediterranean Basin were analyzed over the period from 1967 to 2017. The correlation between SSI and SPI indicated that in response to meteorological drought, hydrological drought experiences a one-year delay then occurs in the following year. This is more evident at all stations from the mid-1990s. The main factor causing hydrological drought is prolonged low precipitation or the presence of a particularly dry year. Results showed that over a long period (12 months), hydrological drought is longer and more severe in the upper part than the lower part of the sub-basins. According to SPI-12 values, an uninterrupted drought period is observed from 2002–2003 to 2008–2009. Results indicated that among the drought events, moderate drought is the most common on all timescales in all sub-basins during the past 51 years. Long-term dry periods with moderate and severe droughts are observed for up to 10 years or more since the late 1990s, especially in the upper part of the sub-basins. As precipitation increases in late autumn and early winter, the stream flow also increases and thus the highest and most positive correlation values (0.26–0.54) are found in January. Correlation values (ranging between −0.11 and −0.01) are weaker and negative in summer and autumn due to low rainfall. This is more evident at all stations in September. The relation between hydrological and meteorological droughts is more evident, with the correlation values above 0.50 on longer timescales (12- and 24-months). The results presented in this study allow an understanding of the characteristics of drought events and are instructive for overcoming drought. This will facilitate the development of strategies for the appropriate management of water resources in the eastern Mediterranean Basin, which has a high agricultural potential.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aerts J, Droogers P. 2004. Climate Change in Contrasting River Basins: Adaptation Strategies for Water, Food, and Environment (1st ed.). Oxfordshire: CABI Books, 288.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Akbaş A. 2014. Important drought years over Turkey. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 12(2): 101–118. (in Turkish)

    Google Scholar 

  • Andreas M, Rohini K, Stephan T, et al. 2018. Climate change alters low flows in Europe under a 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 22(2): 1017–1032.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arinç K. 2019. Mediterranean and Black Sea Regions, with Their Natural, Human, Economic and Political Aspects (2nd ed.) Erzurum: Biosphere Research Center Publications, 317 (in Turkish)

    Google Scholar 

  • Bahadir M. 2011. The future trends and possible consequences of temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean region. Uluslararasi Sosyal Araştirmalar Dergisi, 19(4): 364–378. (in Turkish)

    Google Scholar 

  • Barker L J, Hannaford J, Chiverton A, et al. 2016. From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20(6): 2483–2505.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bayer Altin T, Barak B, Altin B N. 2012. Change in precipitation and temperature amounts over three decades in Central Anatolia, Turkey. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2(1): 107–125.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bayer Altin T, Barak B. 2017. Trends and changes in tropical and summer days at the Adana Sub-Region of the Mediterranean Region, Southern Turkey. Atmospheric Research, 196: 182–199.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bayer Altin T, Altin B N. 2018. Temperature and precipitation trends analysis in Karaman and Ermenek (Central Anatolia, Turkey) for period 1966–2017. In: Muşmal H, Yüksel E, Kapar M A, et al. Ermenek Araştirmaları-II. Konya: Palet Yayınları, 1–15. (in Turkish)

    Google Scholar 

  • Bayer Altin T. 2019a. Drought analysis in Aksaray (Central Anatolia Region), Turkey. In: Yıldız M S, Can A, Özkaya M. The 4th International Aksaray Symposium. Aksaray University: 24–26.

  • Bayer Altın T. 2019b. Drought analysis of KOP Region. In: Aslan E, Başalan M, Arslan M, et al. The 7th International Symposium on Development of KOP Region. Kırıkkale: Kırıkkale University Publishing, 563–583. (in Turkish)

  • Bayer Altın T, Sarış F, Altın B N. 2020. Determination of drought intensity in Seyhan and Ceyhan River Basins, Turkey, by hydrological drought analysis. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 139: 95–107.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bordi I, Fraedrich K, Sutera A. 2009. Observed drought and wetness trends in Europe: An update. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13: 1519–1530.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boudad B, Sahbi H, Manssouri I. 2018. Analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought based in SPI and SDI index in the Inaouen Basin (Northern Morocco). Journal of Materials and Environmental Sciences, 9(1): 219–227.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caloiero T, Veltri S, Caloiero P, et al. 2018. Drought analysis in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Water, 10(8): 1043, doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/w10081043.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Çelik M A, Gülersoy A E. 2018. Climate classification and drought analysis of Mersin. MCBÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1(16): 1–25. (in Turkish)

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook B I, Smerdon J E, Seager R, et al. 2014. Global warming and 21st century drying. Climate Dynamics, 43: 2607–2627.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cook B I, Anchukaitis K J, Touchan R, et al. 2016. Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(5): 2060–2074.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Çuhadar M, Atiş E. 2019. Drought analysis in Ceyhan Basin using Standardized Precipitation Index. Journal of the Institute of Science and Technology, 9(4): 2303–2312.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dabanli İ. 2018. Drought hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment in Turkey. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 11: 538–550.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duan W L, He B, Nover D, et al. 2016. Floods and associated socioeconomic damages in China over the last century. Natural Hazards, 82(1): 401–413.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duan W L, Hanasaki N, Shiogama H, et al. 2019a. Evaluation and future projection of Chinese precipitation extremes using large ensemble high-resolution climate simulations. Journal of Climate, 32(8): 2169–2183.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duan W L, Zou S, Nover D. 2019b. Managing the water-climate-food nexus for sustainable development in Turkmenistan. Journal of Cleaner Production, 220: 212–224.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duan W L, Takara K. 2020. Impacts of Climate and Human Activities on Water Resources and Quality: Integrated Regional Assessment (1st ed.). Singapore: Springer Nature, 1–183.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Ducrocq V. 2016. Climate change in the Mediterranean Region. In: Sabrié M L, Gibert B E, Mourier T. The Mediterranean Region Under Climate Change. Marseille: AllEnvi Publishing, 71–104.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Ducrocq V, Gaume E. 2016. Hydro-meteorological extrems. In: Sabrié M L, G B E, Mourier T. The Mediterranean Region Under Climate Change. Marseille: AllEnvi Publishing, 105–144.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Farjad B, Gupta A, Marceau D J. 2016. Annual and seasonal variations of hydrological processes under climate change scenarios in two sub-catchments of a complex watershed. Water Resources Management, 30: 2851–2865.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FDMD (Flood and Drought Management Department). 2018. Drought management plan of Eastern Mediterranean Basin. Ankara: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry General Directorate of Water Management Publishing, 1–91.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frierson D M W, Lu J, Chen G. 2007. Width of the Hadley cell in simple and comprehensive general circulation models. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(18): L18804.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fujihara Y, Tanaka K, Watanabe T, et al. 2008. Assessing the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Seyhan River Basin in Turkey: use of dynamically downscaled data for hydrologic simulations. Journal of Hydrology, 353(1–2): 33–48.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • GDWM (General Directorate of Water Management). 2016. Climate change impacts on water resources project. Eastern Mediterranean Region, Project No. 19. Ankara: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry General Directorate of Water Management Publishing, 1–140.

    Google Scholar 

  • Giannakopoulos C, Kostopoulou E, Varotsos K V, et al. 2011. An integrated assessment of climate change impacts for Greece in the near future. Regional Environmental Change, 11: 829–843.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grise K M, Davis S M. 2020. Hadley cell expansion in CMIP6 models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20: 5249–5268.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gümüş V, Algin H M. 2017. Meteorological and hydrological drought analysis of the Seyhan-Ceyhan River Basins, Turkey. Meteorological Applications, 24(1): 62–73.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. Fourth Assessment Report: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 976.

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2013. Summary for policymakers. In: Stocker T F, Qin D, Plattner G K, et al. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 29.

    Google Scholar 

  • Johanson C M, Fu Q. 2009. Hadley cell widening: Model simulations versus observations. Journal of Climate, 22: 2713–2725.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keskiner A D, Çetin M, Uçan M, et al. 2016. Meteorological drought analysis with different return periods by using Standardized Precipitation Index in geographic information systems environment: a case study in the Seyhan River Basin. Çukurova Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, 31(2): 79–90.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kömüşçü A Ü, Erkan A, Turgu E, et al. 2004. A new insight into drought vulnerability in Turkey using the standard precipitation index. Journal of Environmental Hydrology, 12(18): 1–17.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kurnaz L. 2014. Drought in Turkey. IPC-Mercator Policy Brief. [2021–01-09]. http://ipc.sabanciuniv.edu/en/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/DROUGHT-IN-TURKEY-Levent-Kurnaz.pdf.

  • Livada I, Assimakopoulos V D. 2007. Spatial and temporal analysis of drought in Greece using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 89: 143–153.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ljubenkov I, Kalin K C. 2016. Evaluation of drought using standardised precipitation and flow indices and their correlations on an example of Sinjsko polje. Gradevinar, 68(2): 135–143.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lorenzo L J, Vicente S S M, Gonzalez H J C, et al. 2013. Hydrological drought response to meteorological drought in the Iberian Peninsula. Climate Research, 58(2): 117–131.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loukas A, Vasiliades L. 2004. Probabilistic analysis of drought spatiotemporal characteristics in Thessaly region, Greece. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst., Sci. 4: 719–731.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J. 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Preprints of 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. Anaheim, California, 179–184.

  • McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J. 1995. Drought monitoring with multiple time scales. In: The 9th Conference on Applied Climatology. Boston: American Meteorological Society, 233–236.

    Google Scholar 

  • MedECC (Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change). 2019. Risks associated to climate and environmental changes in the Mediterranean region. [2020–10-18]. https://ufmsecretariat.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10MedECC-booklet_EN_WEB.

  • Mendicino G, Senatore A, Versace P. 2008. A groundwater resource index (GRI) for drought monitoring and forecasting in a Mediterranean climate. Journal of Hydrology, 357(3–4): 282–302.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nkiaka E, Nawaz N R, Lovett J C. 2017. Using standardized indicators to analyse dry/wet conditions and their application for monitoring drought/floods: a study in the Logone catchment, Lake Chad basin. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62(16): 2720–2736.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oğuz K, Pekin M A, Gürkan H, et al. 2017. Analyses of drought in Eastern Mediterranean basin with era-interim data. Anadolu Tarim Bilimleri Dergisi, 32: 229–236.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quan X W, Diaz H F, Hoerling M P. 2004. Change in the tropical hadley sell since 1950. In: Diaz H F, Bradley R S. The Hadley Circulation: Present, Past and Future. Advances in Global Change Research, 21. Dordrecht: Springer, 85–120.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Ratner B. 2009. The correlation coefficient: Its values range between +1/−1, or do they? Journal of Targeting, Measurement and Analysis for Marketing, 17: 139–142.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şahin Ü, Kurnaz L. 2014. Climate change and drought (İklim değişikliği ve kuraklık) (1st ed.). Istanbul: Sabancı Üniversitesi, İstanbul Politikalar Merkezi, 1–38.

    Google Scholar 

  • Salimi H, Asadi E, Darbandi S. 2021. Meteorological and hydrological drought monitoring using several drought indices. Applied Water Science, 11: 11, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-020-01345-6.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider C, Laizé C L R, Acreman M C, et al. 2013. How will climate change modify river flow regimes in Europe? Hydrology Earth System Sciences, 17(1): 325–339.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seidel D J, Fu Q, Randel W J, et al. 2008. Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate. Nature Geoscience, 1(1): 21–24.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şen Ö L, Bozkurt D, Göktürk O M, et al. 2013. Climate change and its possible effects in Turkey. [2020–06-18]. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322099836_Turkiye’de_Iklim_Degisikligi_ve_Olasi_Etkileri. (in Turkish)

  • Shukla S, Wood A W. 2008. Use of a Standardized Runoff Index for characterizing hydrologic. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(2): L02405, doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032487.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Şimşek O, Çakmak B. 2010. Drought analysis for 2007–2008 agricultural year of Turkey. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty, 7(3): 99–109. (in Turkish)

    Google Scholar 

  • Sönmez F K, Kömüşçü A Ü, Erkan A, et al. 2005. An analysis of spatial and temporal dimension of drought vulnerability in Turkey using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Natural Hazards, 35: 243–264.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spinoni J, Vogt J V, Naumann G, et al. 2018. Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe? International Journal of Climatology, 38(4): 1718–1736.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun Q, Miao C, Duan Q. 2015. Extreme climate events and agricultural climate indices in China: CMIP5 model evaluation and projections. International Journal of Climatology, 36(1): 43–61.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Topçu E, Seçkin N. 2016. Drought analysis of the Seyhan Basin by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and L-moments. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 22: 196–215.

    Google Scholar 

  • Topraksu. 1974. Soils of Eastern Mediterranean Basin. Ankara: Republic of Turkey, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Soil and Water General Directorate Publishing, 1–52.

  • Türkeş M. 2005. Climate of southern part of the Middle Kızılırmak sub-region (Cappadocia District) and its vulnerability to desertification. Aegean Geographical Journal, 14: 73–97. (in Turkish)

    Google Scholar 

  • Türkeş M, Tatli H. 2009. Use of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and a modified SPI for shaping the drought probabilities over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 29(15): 2270–2282.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vasiliades L, Loukas A. 2009. Hydrological response to meteorological drought using the Palmer drought indices in Thessaly, Greece. Desalination, 237(1–3): 3–21.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilhite D A, Glantz M H. 1985. Understanding: the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water International, 10(3): 111–120.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the Turkish State Meteorological Service for providing the meteorological data (precipitation dataset) and the General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works for providing the streamflow data. We would like to specially thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions, which improved the quality of the article, and also wish to thank the editors of the journal.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Faculty of Science and Letters, Niğde Ömer Halisdemir University, Niğde, 51240, Turkey

    Türkan Bayer Altin & Bekir N. Altin

Authors
  1. Türkan Bayer Altin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Bekir N. Altin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Türkan Bayer Altin.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Bayer Altin, T., Altin, B.N. Response of hydrological drought to meteorological drought in the eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. J. Arid Land 13, 470–486 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-021-0064-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-021-0064-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation