Abstract
Heatwaves are characterized by an increase in temperature to extreme levels, which adversely distress the living organisms. India ranks second in terms of disaster mortality among the world countries, preponderantly by heatwave—influenced by regional climatology. In this study, the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) index is used to detect the heatwave using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset over various states of India during the summer period (April–June of 2017–2019). EHF categorizes heatwaves based on the severity, which is an intensity measure created by combining the measures of excess heat, long-term temperatures anomaly characteristics by each location’s unique climatology of heat by various thresholds. The heatwave events are analysed by combining the means of excess heat and heat stress, which has a strong aspect of EHF measurements. Concerning the intensity of future heatwaves, EHF index helps to analyse the frequency and intensity of heatwave episodes and alert those community most exposed to heat related illness. One of the indices is derived from a climatological background to analyse the severity of heatwave over the Indian states. The analysis over India using the EHF index reflected a substantial rate of increase in the intensity and the frequency of heatwaves in the successive years with an average EHF intensity (mean EHF for the analysis period) of ~ 41 °C2, ~ 38 °C2 and ~ 39 °C2, especially over the north–western states, eastern coastal states and central and southern states, respectively. The results of this study serve as a drive in the risk and vulnerability planning and assessment.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
Publicly available datasets were analysed in this study. These datasets can be found in ERA-Interim—https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim-full-daily/levtype=sfc/ and IMD gridded—https://imdpune.gov.in/Clim_Pred_LRF_New/Grided_Data_Download.html.
References
Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority (APSDMA) (2019) Heatwave action Plan - 2019. https://apsdma.ap.gov.in/latestupdate_pdfs/heatwave/March2019/Heat wave Action plan 2019.pdf
Azhar G, Saha S, Ganguly P et al (2017) Heat wave vulnerability mapping for India. Int J Environ Res Public Health. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14040357
Becker E (2019) September 2019 ENSO update: feeling neutral. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-2019-enso-update-feeling-neutral
Ceccherini G, Russo S, Ameztoy I et al (2017) Heat waves in Africa 1981–2015, observations and reanalysis. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 17:115–125. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-115-2017
Das PK, Podder U, Das R et al (2020) Quantification of heat wave occurrences over the Indian region using long-term (1979–2017) daily gridded (0.5° × 0.5°) temperature data—a combined heat wave index approach. Theor Appl Climatol 142:497–511. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03329-7
Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828
Edenhofer O, Pichs-Madruga R, Sokona Y (2014) Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU). In: Climate Change 2014 Mitigation of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, p 1419. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_frontmatter.pdf
Ford TW, Dirmeyer PA, Benson DO (2018) Evaluation of heat wave forecasts seamlessly across subseasonal timescales. Npj Clim Atmos Sci. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0027-7
Ghodichore N, Vinnarasi R, Dhanya CT, Roy SB (2018) Reliability of reanalyses products in simulating precipitation and temperature characteristics over India. J Earth Syst Sci 127:1–21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-018-1024-2
Guha-Sapir D, Checchi F (2018) Science and politics of disaster death tolls. BMJ. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.k4005
Guha-Sapir D, Vos F, Below R (2018) Annual disaster statistical review. Cent reserach epidemiol disasters/UCL.
Gujarat State Disaster Management Authority (GSDMA) (2020) Gujarat State action plan: prevention and mitigation of impacts of heat wave - 2020. Gujarat, India. http://www.gsdma.org/uploads/Assets/other/gujaratstateheatwaveactionplan2020-2104252020
Gupta P, Verma S, Bhatla R et al (2020) Validation of surface temperature derived from MERRA-2 reanalysis against IMD gridded data set over India. Earth Sp Sci 7:1–13. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000910
Heo S, Bell ML (2019) Heat waves in South Korea: differences of heat wave characteristics by thermal indices. J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 29:790–805. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41370-018-0076-3
Im ES, Pal JS, Eltahir EAB (2017) Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia. Sci Adv 8:1–8. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1603322
India Meteorological Department (IMD) (2018) Annual Report - 2017. New Delhi, India. https://metnet.imd.gov.in/imdnews/ar2017.pdf
Katiyar S, Singh SP, Mishra K, et al (2020) Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) for Improving Heat Wave Warning over India. New Delhi, India. https://internal.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/fdpheatreport2019.pdf
Kishore P, Jyothi S, Basha G et al (2016) Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends. Clim Dyn 46:541–556. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2597-y
Knochel JP, Reed G (1994) Disorders of heat regulation. In: Maxwell and Kleeman’s clinical disorders of fluid and electrolyte metabolism, 5th edn. McGraw-Hill, p 1712. https://books.google.co.in/books/about/Maxwell_Kleeman_s_Clinical_Disorders_of.html?id=3sjTNwAACAAJ&source=kp_book_description&redir_esc=y
Kumar R, Mishra V (2019) Decline in surface urban heat island intensity in India during heatwaves. Environ Res Commun 1:1–9. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab121d
Kumar SN, Singh AK, Aggarwal PK, et al (2012) Climate Change and Indian Agriculture: Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability. New Delhi, India. https://www.iari.res.in/files/ClimateChange.pdf
Larsen J (2003) Record Heat Wave in Europe Takes 35,000 Lives: Far Greater Losses May Lie Ahead. In: Earth Policy Inst. http://www.earth-policy.org/mobile/releases/update29
Li XX (2020) Heat wave trends in Southeast Asia during 1979–2018: The impact of humidity. Sci Total Environ 721:13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137664
Loridan T, Coates L, Frontiers R, et al (2016) The excess heat factor as a metric for heat-related fatalities: defining heatwave risk categories. Aust J Emerg Manag 31:31–37. https://www.preventionweb.net/publications/view/51052
Mall RK, Singh R, Gupta A et al (2006) Impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: a review. Clim Change 78:445–478. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9042-x
Mandal R, Joseph S, Sahai AK et al (2019) Real time extended range prediction of heat waves over India. Sci Rep 9:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-45430-6
McBride JL, Mills GA, Wain AG (2009) The meteorology of Australian heatwaves. In: Modelling and understanding high impact Weather. p 4. http://www.bom.gov.au/research/publications/cawcrreports/CTR_017
Min KH, Chung CH, Bae JH, Cha DH (2020) Synoptic characteristics of extreme heatwaves over the Korean Peninsula based on ERA Interim reanalysis data. Int J Climatol 40:3179–3195. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6390
Mishra V, Mukherjee S, Kumar R, Stone DA (2017) Heat wave exposure in India in current, 1.5 °c, and 2.0 °c worlds. Environ Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9388
MOSDAC (2008) INSAT-Kalpana 1 VHR OLR. https://doi.org/1 https://doi.org/10.19038/SAC/10/K1-VHR-OLR
Mukherjee S, Mishra V (2018) A sixfold rise in concurrent day and night-time heatwaves in India under 2 °C warming. Sci Rep 8:9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-35348-w
Nairn J, Fawcett R (2013) Defining heatwaves: heatwave defined as a heat-impact event servicing all community and business sectors in Australia. Australia. https://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_060.pdf
Nairn J, Ostendorf B, Bi P (2018) Performance of excess heat factor severity as a global heatwave health impact index. Int J Environ Res Public Health. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15112494
Nairn JR, Fawcett RJB (2014) The excess heat factor: a metric for heatwave intensity and its use in classifying heatwave severity. Int J Environ Res Public Health 12:227–253. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120100227
National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) (2019) National guidelines for preparation of action plan - prevention and management of heat wave. New Delhi, India. https://nidm.gov.in/PDF/pubs/NDMA/27.pdf
National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) (2017) Guidelines for Preparation of Action Plan – Prevention and Management of Heat-Wave. New Delhi, India. /pdf/guidelines/new/heatwaveguidelines2017.pdf
Neethu C, Ramesh KV, Shafeer KB (2020) Understanding the spatio-temporal structure of recent heat waves over India. Nat Hazards 102:673–688. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03593-5
Nori-Sarma A, Anderson GB, Rajiva A et al (2019) The impact of heat waves on mortality in Northwest India. Environ Res 176:9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2019.108546
Odisha State Disaster Management Authority (OSDMA) (2020) Heat Action Plan 2020. Odisha, India. https://www.osdma.org/preparedness/one-stop-risk-management-system/heat-wave/#gsc.tab=0
Pai DS, Nair SA, Ramanathan AN (2013) Long term climatology and trends of heat waves over India during the recent 50 years (1961–2010). Mausam 64:585–604
Pakalidou N, Katragkou E, Poupkou A, et al (2013) Decadal Analysis of heat-wave events in thessaloniki and investigation of impacts on PM10. In: Helmis ostas G, Nastos PT (eds) Advances in Meteorology, climatology and atmospheric physics. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp 663–669. http://link.springer.com/https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-29172-2_94
Pattanaik D, Hatwar H (2006) Analysis and impact of delayed onset of monsoon over Northeast India during 2005. Vayu Mandal 32:3–9
Pattanaik DR, Sahai AK (2018) Evaluation of Real-Time Extended Range Forecast (ERF) of southwest monsoon, heat wave, cold wave, cyclogenesis and northeast monsoon during 2017. New Delhi, India. https://nwp.imd.gov.in/ERF_Report_2017.pdf
Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, Gibson PB (2017) Changes in regional heatwave characteristics as a function of increasing global temperature. Sci Rep 7:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-12520-2
Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, White CJ, Alexander LV et al (2016) Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves. Clim Change 139:101–114. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1650-0
Perkins SE, Alexander LV (2013) On the measurement of heat waves. J Clim 26:4500–4517. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1
Perkins SE, Alexander LV, Nairn JR (2012) Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells. Geophys Res Lett 39:1–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053361
Piticar A, Croitoru AE, Ciupertea FA, Harpa GV (2018) Recent changes in heat waves and cold waves detected based on excess heat factor and excess cold factor in Romania. Int J Climatol 38:1777–1793. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5295
Ratnam JV, Behera SK, Ratna SB et al (2016) Anatomy of Indian heatwaves. Sci Rep 6:11. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep24395
Robinson PJ (2001) On the definition of a heat wave. J Appl Meteorol 40:762–775. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040%3c0762:OTDOAH%3e2.0.CO;2
Rohini P, Rajeevan M, Srivastava AK (2016) On the variability and increasing trends of heat waves over India. Sci Rep 6:1–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep26153
Roy A, Thakur PK, Pokhriyal N, et al (2018) Intercomparison of different rainfall products and validation of WRF modelled rainfall estimation in N-W Himalaya during monsoon period. In: ISPRS Annals of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences. p 5. https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-5-351-2018
Sandeep A, Prasad VS (2018) Intra-annual variability of heat wave episodes over the east coast of India. Int J Climatol 38:e617–e628. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5395
Satyanarayana GC, Rao DVB (2020) Phenology of heat waves over India. Atmos Res 245:12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105078
Shah D, Pandya MR, Pathak VN, et al (2016) Detection of heat wave using Kalpana-1 VHRR land surface temperature product over India. In: Khanbilvardi R, Ganju A, Rajawat AS, Chen JM (eds) SPIE Asia-Pacific Remote Sensing. SPIE, New Delhi, India, p 987727. http://proceedings.spiedigitallibrary.org/proceeding.aspx?doi=https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2223655
Shah R, Mishra V (2014) Evaluation of the reanalysis products for the monsoon season droughts in India. J Hydrometeorol 15:1575–1591. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0103.1
Singh C, Kumar SVJ (2018) Meteorological conditions for development of heat wave over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. J Indian Geophys Union 22:349–358. http://iguonline.in/journal/viewpostsnew.php?urlVol=22&urlIsNum=03&urlVID=50
Singh S, Mall RK, Singh N (2021) Changing spatio-temporal trends of heat wave and severe heat wave events over India: an emerging health hazard. Int J Climatol 41:1–15. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6814
Srivastava AK, Shinde AS, Kundale AP (2012) Weather in India. Mausam 63:511–528. https://metnet.imd.gov.in/mausamdocs/36331.pdf
Stachlewska IS, Zawadzka O, Engelmann R (2017) Effect of heatwave conditions on aerosol optical properties derived from satellite and ground-based remote sensing over Poland. Remote Sens 9:23. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9111199
Twardosz R, Kossowska-Cezak U (2015) Exceptionally hot and cold summers in Europe (1951–2010). Acta Geophys 63:275–300. https://doi.org/10.2478/s11600-014-0261-2
Uppala SM, Kållberg PW, Simmons AJ et al (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 131:2961–3012. https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.176
Van Oldenborgh GJ, Philip S, Kew S et al (2018) Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 18:365–381. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-365-2018
Varghese BM, Barnett AG, Hansen AL et al (2019) Characterising the impact of heatwaves on work-related injuries and illnesses in three Australian cities using a standard heatwave definition- Excess Heat Factor (EHF). J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 29:821–830. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41370-019-0138-1
Wong TST (2015) Statistical analysis of heat waves in the State of Victoria in Australia. Aust New Zeal J Stat 57:463–480. https://doi.org/10.1111/anzs.12137
Zhang R, Sun C, Zhu J, et al (2020) Increased European heat waves in recent decades in response to shrinking Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover. npj Clim Atmos Sci 3:7. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0110-8
Zhao A, Bollasina MA, Stevenson DS (2019) Strong influence of aerosol reductions on future heatwaves. Geophys Res Lett 46:11. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082269
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and India Meteorological Department for making the availability of the ERA-Interim and IMD gridded data. The authors would like to thank the National Institute of Technology Rourkela for the lab facility and to the fellow lab mates for their constant support. Authors are thankful to the reviewers (one anonymous and Dr. Nikoletta Pakalidou) for their constructive suggestions to improve the manuscript quality.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interests
The authors declare that they have no known competing interests.
Additional information
Communicated by Theodore Karacostas, Prof. (CO-EDITOR-IN-CHIEF).
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hari, M., Tyagi, B. Investigating Indian summer heatwaves for 2017–2019 using reanalysis datasets. Acta Geophys. 69, 1447–1464 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-021-00603-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-021-00603-8