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Impact of climate change on the staple food crops yield in Ethiopia: implications for food security

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Abstract

Climate change is likely to make matters worse in Ethiopia, where the primary sources of food production depend on agriculture, mainly rain-fed agriculture. This study has two folds: first, we estimate the marginal impact of climate variables on the dominant staple food crops (teff, maize, wheat, and sorghum) grown in Ethiopia using feasible generalized least square (FGLS) and autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity consistent standard error for 31 years’ time series data. Second, based on these estimates, we used regional climate models (UQAM _CRCM5 and SMHI_ RCA4) to identify yield sensitivity change in the future. A significant rise in mean monthly temperature and positive change in rainfall were observed from 1988 to 2018. Though an increase in maximum temperature had a favorable effect on all crop yields, a similar increase in minimum temperature was found to have an adverse impact. Since 2000 there has been a considerable increase in total production, but the increasing trends have been due to increases in area cultivated. Towards the end of the twenty-first century, the projection of climate impacts has suggested that with significant increases in temperature and decreases in rainfall result the decline of sorghum yield by 18.1% and wheat yield by 13.2%. However, the yield of teff and maize will be expected to increase by 20.2 and 17.9% respectively. We recommend adopting and expanding locally fitted climate-smart agricultural practices to minimize the long-run climate change impacts on crop production and address the country’s food security problems sustainably.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge the National Meteorology Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia for providing meteorological data and the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) of Ethiopia for providing statistical yield data. The authors acknowledge the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving and providing access to the CMIP5 dataset. The authors also extend their gratitude to the editor and anonymous reviewers for substantial comments on earlier versions of this paper.

Availability of data and material

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, upon reasonable request.

Code availability

The codes that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author.

Funding

This work is financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (No.: 2017YFC0403506) Young Top-Notch Talent Support Program of National High-level Talents Special Support Plan, Jiang Su Qing Lan.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, People’s Republic of China

    Ashenafi Yimam Kassaye, Guangcheng Shao & Shiqing Wu

  2. School of Geography and Environmental Studies, Haramaya University, P.O.Box 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

    Ashenafi Yimam Kassaye

  3. Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, 210029, People’s Republic of China

    Xiaojun Wang

  4. Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing, 210029, People’s Republic of China

    Xiaojun Wang

  5. Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Wollo University, P.O.Box 1145, Dessie, Ethiopia

    Eshetu Shifaw

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  1. Ashenafi Yimam Kassaye
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Contributions

Ashenafi Yimam Kassaye analyzed the data and wrote the manuscript. Guangcheng Shao and Xiaojun Wang provided guidance and revised the manuscript. Eshetu Shifaw helped in statistical analysis and revised the manuscript. Shiqing Wu revised the manuscript. The order of the authors is based on the level of their contribution.

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Correspondence to Xiaojun Wang.

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Kassaye, A.Y., Shao, G., Wang, X. et al. Impact of climate change on the staple food crops yield in Ethiopia: implications for food security. Theor Appl Climatol 145, 327–343 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03635-8

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