Abstract
The coseismic landslide is one of the important hazard phenomena in the hilly and seismically active mountainous region. It is, therefore, essential to map the areas susceptible to coseismic landslides, especially for the seismically active region.
In the present work, the probabilistic assessment of coseismic landslides has been carried out for Goriganga valley located in the Kumaun Himalaya, India, which lies in the highest seismically active zone of the seismic zoning map of India. Several studies suggest that this region is prone to a great future earthquake of Mw ≥8.0.
In this context, mapping of the coseismic landslide has been made for the future scenario earthquakes of 7.0, 8.0, and 8.6 Mw using modified Newmark’s analysis. The modified Newmark’s analysis provides the permanent displacement of the potential landslide, by integrating (1) joint strength of rock mass, (2) critical acceleration of the slope, and (3) peak ground acceleration of the region. Newmark permanent displacement has been estimated, which provides the distribution of predicted slope failure in the area.
It has been observed that 41% of the area exhibits ˃40 cm Newmark’s permanent displacement corresponding to Mw 8.6 earthquake and thus susceptible to failure, followed by 8.0 and 7.0 Mw earthquake with 36 and 14% of the area susceptible to the coseismic landslide, respectively. Further, the maximum permanent displacements for the simulated earthquakes of Mw 7.0, 8.0, and 8.6 are 76, 279, and 502 cm, respectively.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bandis SC, Lumsdent AC, Barton NR (1983) Fundamentals of rock joint deformation. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci Geomech Abstr 20:249–268. https://doi.org/10.1016/0148-9062(83)90595-8
Barton N (1971) A relationship between joint roughness and joint shear strength. Rock Fract Int Symp Rock Mech Nancy Fr paper1-8
Barton N (1973) Review of a new shear-strength criterion for rock joints. Eng Geol 7:287–332
Barton N, Choubey V (1977) The shear strength of rock joints in theory and practice. Rock Mech Felsmechanik Mécanique des Roches 10:1–54. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01261801
BIS Code 1893 (2002) Earthquake hazard zoning map of India. www.bis.org.in
Chen X, Liu C, Wang M (2019) A method for quick assessment of earthquake-triggered landslide hazards: a case study of the Mw6.1 2014 Ludian, China earthquake. Bull Eng Geol Environ 78:2449–2458. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-018-1313-7
Chen X, Chen J, Cui P et al (2018) Assessment of prospective hazards resulting from the 2017 earthquake at the world heritage site Jiuzhaigou Valley, Sichuan, China. J Mt Sci 15:779–792. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-017-4785-1
Coulson JH (1972) Shear strength of flat surfaces in rock. Proc 13th Symp On Rock Mech Urbana, Ill:77–105
Cruden DM (1991) A simple definition of a landslide. Bull Int Assoc Eng Geol - Bull l’Association Int Géologie l’Ingénieur 43:27–29. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02590167
Duncan N, Sheerman-Chase A (1965-1966) Planning design and construction-rock mechanics in civil engineering works. Civ Eng Public Work Rev 61:213–215
Duncan N (1969) Engineering geology and rock mechanics, vol 1 and 2
Dunning SA, Mitchell WA, Rosser NJ, Petley DN (2007) The Hattian Bala rock avalanche and associated landslides triggered by the Kashmir earthquake of 8 October 2005. Eng Geol 93:130–144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.07.003
Gallen SF, Clark MK, Godt JW et al (2017) Application and evaluation of a rapid response earthquake-triggered landslide model to the 25 April 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal. Tectonophysics 714–715:173–187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2016.10.031
Gupta HK, Gahalaut VK (2015) Can an earthquake of Mw∼ 9 occur in the Himalayan region? Geol Soc Lond, Spec Publ 412:43–53
Guzzetti F, Cardinali M, Reichenbach P (1994) The AVI project: a bibliographical and archive inventory of landslides and floods in Italy. Environ Manag 18:623–633. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02400865
Haque U, Da Silva PF, Devoli G, Pilz J, Zhao B, Khaloua A et al (2019) The human cost of global warming: deadly landslides and their triggers (1995–2014). Sci Total Environ 682:673–684
Horn BK (1981) Hill shading and the reflectance map. Proc IEEE 69:14–47
Huang D, Wang G, Du C et al (2020) An integrated SEM-Newmark model for physics-based regional coseismic landslide assessment. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 132:106066. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2020.106066
Hung C, Lin GW, Syu HS et al (2018) Analysis of the Aso-Bridge landslide during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes in Japan. Bull Eng Geol Environ 77:1439–1449. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-017-1103-7
Ingles J, Darrozes J, Soula JC (2006) Effects of the vertical component of ground shaking on earthquake-induced landslide displacements using generalized Newmark analysis. Eng Geol 86:134–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2006.02.018
Jibson RW (2011) Methods for assessing the stability of slopes during earthquakes—a retrospective. Eng Geol 122:43–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2010.09.017
Jibson RW, Harp EL, Michael JA (2000) A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps. Eng Geol 58:271–289. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(00)00039-9
Joshi A, Kumar P, Mohanty M et al (2012) Determination of Q β(f) in different parts of Kumaon Himalaya from the inversion of spectral acceleration data. Pure Appl Geophys 169:1821–1845. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-011-0421-0
Keefer DK (1984) Landslides caused by earthquakes. Geol Soc Am Bull 95(4):406–421
Khattri KM, Tyagi AK (1983) Seismicity patterns in the Himalayan plate boundary and identification of the areas of high seismic potential. Tectonophysics 96:281–297. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(83)90222-6
Kumar P, Joshi A, Sandeep et al (2015) Detailed attenuation study of shear waves in the Kumaon Himalaya, India, using the inversion of strong-motion data. Bull Seismol Soc Am 105:1836–1851. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140053
Lin ML, Tung CC (2004) A GIS-based potential analysis of the landslides induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake. Eng Geol 71:63–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(03)00126-1
Liu J, Shi J, Wang T, Wu S (2018) Seismic landslide hazard assessment in the Tianshui area, China, based on scenario earthquakes. Bull Eng Geol Environ 77:1263–1272. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-016-0998-8
Luirei K, Pant PD, Kothyari GC (2006) Geomorphic evidences of neotectonic movements in Dharchula area, northeast Kumaun: a perspective of the recent tectonic activity. J Geol Soc India 67:92–100
Ma S, Xu C (2019) Assessment of co-seismic landslide hazard using the Newmark model and statistical analyses: a case study of the 2013 Lushan, China, Mw6.6 earthquake. Nat Hazards 96:389–412. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3548-9
Martha TR, Babu Govindharaj K, Vinod Kumar K (2015) Damage and geological assessment of the 18 September 2011 Mw 6.9 earthquake in Sikkim, India using very high resolution satellite data. Geosci Front 6:793–805. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2013.12.011
Miles SB, Ho CL (1999) Rigorous landslide hazard zonation using Newmark’s method and stochastic ground motion simulation. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 18:305–323. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0267-7261(98)00048-7
Monika, Kumar P, Sandeep et al (2020) Spatial variability studies of attenuation characteristics of Qα and Qβ in Kumaon and Garhwal region of NW Himalaya. Nat Hazards 103:1219–1237. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04031-7
Neuland H (1976) A prediction model of landslips. Catena 3:215–230. https://doi.org/10.1016/0341-8162(76)90011-4
Newmark NM (1965) Effects of earthquakes on dams and embankments. Geotechnique 15:139–160. https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.1965.15.2.139
Nilsen TH, Brabb EE (1977) Slope-stability studies in the San Francisco Bay region, California. GSA Rev Eng Geol 3:233–243. https://doi.org/10.1130/REG3-p233
Okimura T, Kawatani T (1987) Mapping of the potential surface-failure sites on granite slopes. In: Gardiner E (ed) International Geomorphology 1986, PartI, Wiley, Chichester, pp 121–1381
Owen LA, Kamp U, Khattak GA et al (2008) Landslides triggered by the 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake. Geomorphology 94:1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.04.007
Panjamani A, Bajaj K, Moustafa SSR, Al-Arifi NSN (2016) Relationship between intensity and recorded ground-motion and spectral parameters for the Himalayan Region. Bull Seismol Soc Am 106:1672–1689
Papathanassiou G (2012) Estimating slope failure potential in an earthquake prone area: a case study at Skolis Mountain, NW Peloponnesus, Greece. Bull Eng Geol Environ 71:187–194. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-010-0344-5
Priest SD (1993) Discontinuity analysis for rock engineering. Pergamon
Qi SW, Yan C, Liu C (2012) Two typical types of earthquake triggered landslides and their mechanisms. In: Landslides and Engineered Slopes: Protecting Society through Improved Understanding - Proceedings of the 11th International and 2nd North American Symposium on Landslides and Engineered Slopes, 2012. pp 1819–1823
Raj KBG (2011) Recession and reconstruction of Milam Glacier, Kumaon Himalaya, observed with satellite imagery. Curr Sci:1420–1425
Rathje EM, Saygili G (2009) Probabilistic assessment of earthquake-induced sliding displacements of natural slopes. Bull N Z Soc Earthq Eng 42:18–27. https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.42.1.18-27
Roback K, Clark MK, West AJ et al (2018) The size, distribution, and mobility of landslides caused by the 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal. Geomorphology 301:121–138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.01.030
Romeo R (2000) Seismically induced landslide displacements: a predictive model. Eng Geol 58:337–351. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(00)00042-9
Sandeep JA, Sah SK et al (2019) Modeling of 2011 IndoNepal earthquake and scenario earthquakes in the Kumaon Region and comparative attenuation study using PGA distribution with the Garhwal Region. Pure Appl Geophys 176:4687–4700. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02232-1
Shinoda M, Miyata Y (2017) Regional landslide susceptibility following the Mid NIIGATA prefecture earthquake in 2004 with NEWMARK’S sliding block analysis. Landslides 14:1887–1899. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-017-0833-8
Srivastava HN, Bansal BK, Verma M (2013) Largest earthquake in Himalaya: an appraisal. J Geol Soc India 82:15–22
Valdiya KS (2001) Reactivation of terrane-defining boundary thrusts in central sector of the Himalaya: implications. Curr Sci 81:1418–1431
Valdiya KS (1980) Geology of kumaun lesser Himalaya. Wadia Inst Himal Geol Rajpur Road Dehradun Himachal times Press 280
Van Westen CJ, Soeters R, Sijmons K (2000) Digital geomorphological landslide hazard mapping of the Alpago area, Italy. ITC J 2:51–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0303-2434(00)85026-6
Wald DJ, Quintoriano V, Heaton TH, Kanamori H (1999) Relationships between peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and Modified Mercalli intensity in California. Earthquake Spectra 15:557–564
Wang F, Fan X, Yunus AP et al (2019) Coseismic landslides triggered by the 2018 Hokkaido, Japan (Mw 6.6), earthquake: spatial distribution, controlling factors, and possible failure mechanism. Landslides 16:1551–1566. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-019-01187-7
Wang KL, Lin ML (2010) Development of shallow seismic landslide potential map based on Newmark’s displacement: the case study of Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan. Environ Earth Sci 60:775–785. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-009-0215-1
Wilson RC, Keefer DK (1983) Dynamic analysis of a slope failure from the 6 August 1979 Coyote Lake, California, earthquake. Seismological Society of America 73(3):863–877
Wu JH, Chen CH (1979) Force-based and displacement-based back analysis of shear strengths: case of Tsaoling landslide. WSEAS Trans Adv Eng Educ 5:200–209
Wu JH, Lin HM (2008) Analyzing the shear strength parameters of the Chiu-fen-erh-shan landslide: integrating strong-motion and GPS data to determine the best-fit accelerogram. GPS Solutions 13(2):153–163
Wu JH, Chen CH (2009) Back calculating the seismic shear strengths of the Tsaoling landslide associated with accelerograph and GPS data. Iran J Sci Technol Transac B Eng 33(B4):301
Wu JH, Tsai PH (2011) New dynamic procedure for back-calculating the shear strength parameters of large landslides. Eng Geol 123:129–147
Xu C, Xu X, Yu G (2013) Landslides triggered by slipping-fault-generated earthquake on a plateau: an example of the 14 April 2010, Ms 7.1, Yushu, China earthquake. Landslides 10:421–431. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-012-0340-x
Yadav RR, Misra KG, Kotlia BS, Upreti N (2014) Premonsoon precipitation variability in Kumaon Himalaya, India over a perspective of ∼300 years. Quat Int 325:213–219
Yang Q, Zhu B, Hiraishi T (2021) Probabilistic evaluation of the seismic stability of infinite submarine slopes integrating the enhanced Newmark method and random field. Bull Eng Geol Environ:1–19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-020-02058-5
Yiğit A (2020) Prediction of amount of earthquake-induced slope displacement by using Newmark method. Eng Geol 264:105385. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2019.105385
Yin KL, Yan TZ (1988) Statistical prediction models for slope instability of metamorphosed rocks. Landslides Proc 5th Symp Lausanne 2:1269–1272. https://doi.org/10.1016/0148-9062(90)90358-9
Yin Y, Wang F, Sun P (2009) Landslide hazards triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan, China. Landslides 6:139–152. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-009-0148-5
Yong R, Ye J, Liang QF et al (2018) Estimation of the joint roughness coefficient (JRC) of rock joints by vector similarity measures. Bull Eng Geol Environ 77:735–749. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-016-0947-6
Youd TL (1985) Landslides caused by earthquakes: discussion. Bull Geol Soc Am 96:1091–1092
Zang M, Qi S, Zou Y et al (2020) An improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 20:713–726. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-713-2020
Zhou S, Chen G, Fang L (2016) Distribution pattern of landslides triggered by the 2014 Ludian earthquake of China: implications for regional threshold topography and the Seismogenic fault identification. ISPRS Int J Geo-Inform 5:46. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi5040046
Acknowledgements
The authors are thankful to the Director, Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology (WIHG), Dehradun for supporting this research work. The work has been carried out under the DST-funded project “Status of Geo-resources and impact assessment of Geologica (exogenic) processes in the NW Himalaya Ecosystem” (DST/SPLICE/CCPNMSHE/TF-3/WIHG/2015 (G)). SK is also thankful to the University Grant Commission (UGC), India for the financial support in terms of the Junior Research Fellowship.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kumar, S., Gupta, V., Kumar, P. et al. Coseismic landslide hazard assessment for the future scenario earthquakes in the Kumaun Himalaya, India. Bull Eng Geol Environ 80, 5219–5235 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-021-02267-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-021-02267-6