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High-resolution probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

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Abstract

The interest to build a nuclear power plant in West Nusa Tenggara Province has caused a concern related to the seismic hazard. One of the challenges was that the existing low-resolution national seismic hazard map did not cover the entire islands of West Nusa Tenggara Province. In this paper, preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of West Nusa Tenggara was performed to complement the existing national seismic hazard map for West Nusa Tenggara. The analysis was carried out using OQ software based on the seismotectonic model and GMPE developed by PUSGEN. Similar seismotectonic model and seismic event trees were implemented using a finer grid spacing of 500–1000 m. The seismotectonic model included active shallow crustal, subduction interface, and background sources with a total number of 50 seismogenic sources and was calculated using 108 GMPE paths. Two hazard levels were considered, each representing 1% and 2% POE in a 100-year return period. A comparison to the existing national seismic hazard map on the PGA level has been presented in this study and yielded a 13–25% difference in the ground acceleration value. Spectral hazard maps representing the shorter period (0.2 s) showed a maximum ground acceleration value of more than 2 g, especially in the northern part of Sumbawa Island. Beyond the longer spectral period (1 s), ground acceleration gradually decreases to the level below the PGA level.

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Abbreviations

a-value:

Gutenberg-Richter value, the cumulative number of earthquakes per year with magnitude greater than or equal to 0

b-value:

Gutenberg-Richter value

F(x):

Probability of exceedance of random magnitude M of an earthquake event exceeds a fixed level x

G-R:

Gutenberg-Richter

M:

Certain earthquake magnitude level, Mw

m max :

Earthquake maximum magnitude, Mw

m min :

Earthquake threshold magnitude, Mw

Mw:

Moment magnitude

Sa :

Spectral acceleration, g

RP:

Return period

T:

Spectral period, s

x :

Earthquake event exceeding level

β :

Independent scale parameter

BAPETEN:

Badan Pengawas Tenaga Nuklir (Nuclear Energy Regulatory Agency)

BATAN:

Badan Tenaga Nuklir Nasional (National Nuclear Energy Agency)

BMKG:

Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency)

DSHA:

Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis

FMD:

Frequency-magnitude distribution

GMPE:

Ground Motion Prediction Equation

ISC-GEM:

International Seismological Centre-Global Earthquake Model

MLE:

Maximum Likelihood Estimation

PGA:

Peak Ground Acceleration, g

PSHA:

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

POE:

Probability of Exceedance

PKSEN:

Pusat Kajian Sistem Energi Nuklir (Center for Nuclear Energy Assessment)

PUSGEN:

Pusat Studi Gempa Nasional (National Earthquake Study Center)

PUSKIM:

Pusat Litbang Perumahan dan Permukiman (Research Center for Human Settlement)

UHS:

Uniform Hazard Spectrum

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Acknowledgements

We are also thankful to Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency (Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika, BMKG), PUSGEN, and Research Center for Human Settlement (Pusat Litbang Perumahan dan Permukiman, PUSKIM) for providing necessary data and analysis.

Funding

The funding for this research was provided by the annual budget of the Center for Nuclear Energy System Assessment (Pusat Kajian Sistem Energi Nuklir, PKSEN-BATAN) for the year 2019.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Nuclear Energy System Assessment, National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia (BATAN), Jl Kuningan Barat, Mampang Prapatan, Jakarta Selatan, 12710, Indonesia

    Y. Yuliastuti, A. B. Wicaksono, E. E. Alhakim, H. Suntoko & S. Sunarko

  2. Center for Nuclear Reactor Safety and Technology, National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia (BATAN), Gedung No.80, Jalan Kawasan Puspiptek, Serpong, Muncul, Tangerang Selatan, Kota Tangerang Selatan, Banten, 15310, Indonesia

    T. Setiadipura

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  1. Y. Yuliastuti
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  3. A. B. Wicaksono
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  4. E. E. Alhakim
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Correspondence to Y. Yuliastuti.

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Yuliastuti, Y., Setiadipura, T., Wicaksono, A.B. et al. High-resolution probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. J Seismol 25, 937–948 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-021-10000-9

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