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Economic Assessment of Permafrost Degradation Effects on the Housing Sector in the Russian Arctic

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Abstract

This article is devoted to the methodology and analysis of the results of economic assessment and forecasting of the consequences of global climate change in the form of permafrost thawing and degradation for the housing sector in eight regions of the Russian Arctic. Changes in the state of permafrost soils during the implementation of the most negative (scenario RCP 8.5) of the IPCC forecast options as the most appropriate to the conditions of the Russian Arctic were taken as a physio-geographic basis for the assessment. It is shown that, under a conservative scenario of the housing sector development in this macroregion of Russia in 2020–2050, the annual average cost of maintenance and restoration of the lost housing stock will exceed ₽30 bln. With the implementation of the modernization scenario, the cost above will increase to ₽36 bln. The maximum expected loss is predicted in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Krasnoyarsk krai, and the minimum, in the Chukotka and Khanty–Mansi autonomous okrugs.

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Notes

  1. According to the methodology of the International Permafrost Association, the following permafrost types are distinguished by areal extent: continuous (90–100% of territory coverage), discontinuous (50–90%), massive-island (10–50%), and sporadic or island (less than 10% of area coverage); by the ice content in permafrost: high, medium, and low. Thus, in Murmansk oblast, the Middle Urals (Perm’ krai, Sverdlovsk oblast), Southern Siberia (Irkutsk oblast, Altai krai, the Republic of Tyva, and Kemerovo oblast), and the Far East (Amur oblast and Sakhalin), permafrost, as a rule, is located either in hard-to-reach mountain regions or in spots with no substantial risk for economic activity.

  2. The authors suggest that this circumstance is most likely due to the imperfection of the statistical accounting of the housing stock at the municipal level.

  3. These include CanESM2, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2-ES, IPSLCM5A-LR, and NorESM1-M.

  4. In this paper, estimates are based on calculations of the actual cost of construction of new residential buildings in contrast to similar estimates in the previously published article by the authors [14], calculated on the basis of the cost of fixed assets.

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Funding

Climatic and physiographic estimations of the permafrost condition were supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research within scientific project nos. 18-00-00600 (18-00-00596) “Scenarios of Global Climate Change and Assessments of Corresponding Impacts on Socioeconomic Development of Russia in the 21st Century” and 18-05-60252_Arktika “Regional Mechanisms of the Arctic Climate Variability and Their Impact on Predictability and Economic Development of the Arctic Regions of the Russian Federation.” For the development of a methodology of economic assessment of permafrost degradation risks for the housing sector in Russian Arctic regions, the respective estimations and scenario modeling were supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research within scientific project no. 18-00-00600 (no. 18-00-00599 “Analysis and Governance Strategies of Climate Risks of the Russia’s Long-Term Socioeconomic Development”), 18-05-60146_Arktika “Medical and Environmental Factors of Socioeconomic Development of the Russian Arctic: Analysis and Forecast,” and 18-05-60088 “Urban Arctic Resilience in the Context of Climate Change and Socioeconomic Transformations,” as well as within the implementation of a grant provided as a subsidy for conducting large scientific projects in priority areas of scientific and technological development within the framework of the subprogram “Basic Research for Long-Term Development and Ensuring the Competitiveness of Society and the State” of the state program of the Russian Federation “Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation,” project “Socioeconomic Development of Asian Russia Based on the Synergy of Transport Accessibility, Systemic Knowledge of the Natural Resource Potential, the Expanding Space of Interregional Interactions,” agreement with the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation no. 075-15-2020-804 (internal grant no. 13.1902.21.0016).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    B. N. Porfiriev

  2. Russian New University (RosNOU), Moscow, Russia

    D. O. Eliseev

  3. Subtropical Research Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Sochi, Russia

    D. O. Eliseev

  4. George Washington University, Washington, District of Columbia, United States

    D. A. Streletskiy

  5. Institute of the Earth’s Cryosphere, Tyumen’ Science Center, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Tyumen’, Russia

    D. A. Streletskiy

Authors
  1. B. N. Porfiriev
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  2. D. O. Eliseev
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  3. D. A. Streletskiy
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to B. N. Porfiriev, D. O. Eliseev or D. A. Streletskiy.

Additional information

Translated by B. Alekseev

RAS Academician Boris Nikolaevich Porfiriev is Scientific Director of the RAS Institute of Economic Forecasting (IEF). Dmitrii Olegovich Eliseev, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), is Head of the RosNOU Research Center and a Senior Researcher of the Subtropical Research Center (SRC), RAS. Dmitry Andreevich Streletskiy, PhD, is a Professor in the Department of Geography, Columbian College of Arts and Sciences, George Washington University.

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Porfiriev, B.N., Eliseev, D.O. & Streletskiy, D.A. Economic Assessment of Permafrost Degradation Effects on the Housing Sector in the Russian Arctic. Her. Russ. Acad. Sci. 91, 17–25 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331621010068

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