Abstract
The global market uptake of the fourth generation-Long-Term Evolution (4G-LTE) Mobile Broadband (MoBro) services are steadily rising, leading to higher capital investments by mobile network operators (MNOs) to scale-up their infrastructure for meeting the impending demand for MoBro data the world over. However, MNOs face uncertainties about financial returns from such investments, owing to a host of technological and market-related factors, which impact the enablement of such 4G-LTE MoBro services. These challenges are clearly evident in the Indian market. Firstly, 4G-LTE subscribers in the rural India contribute to less than one-third of the overall market size. Secondly, India performs poorly in terms of minimum capacity requirements of the 4G-LTE MoBro services. Thirdly, the rise in per-user consumption of MoBro data does not translate into a similar rise in the MNOs’ revenue. Fourthly, the socio-economic-geographic segregation of India into twenty-two administrative zones (referred to as telecom circles) add to the complexities in the capital investment decisions of MNOs. To address the above challenges, we model various cost and profitability scenarios of a hypothetical MNO providing universal 4G-LTE deployment across the twenty-two telecom circles in India using the available spectrum bands. Our proposed model is firmly established in the “network investment economics” framework for telecom innovations. We adopt a technology diffusion-based approach to forecast the 4G-LTE subscribers in India. We focus on the requirements of 4G-LTE MoBro infrastructure investments, including the spectrum selection decisions by MNOs, and show that, for valuation of the spectrum, the policymakers in India need to take into account the potential of the spectrum in terms of financial returns to an MNO deploying 4G-LTE using that spectrum, as against merely valuing the spectrum based on primarily the technical characteristics of its carrier frequency and benchmarks of prior spectrum auction prices in a particular telecom circle. Finally, we also show that a nationwide 4G-LTE network, which is universal, inclusive, and adhering to the global standards in terms of service quality, can be financially lucrative for MNOs, if enabled by appropriate policies instituting collaborative frameworks for infrastructure sharing, and price rationalization of spectrum bands across the twenty-two telecom circles.
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Notes
The International Telecommunications Union Radio Regulations (ITU-RR) defines mobile service as “a type of radio communication service between mobile stations and land stations.” Mobile stations here refer to mobile devices, including handheld devices, such as smartphones, tablet computers and Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs). Land stations, on the other hand, refer to mobile base stations, which send and receive radio signals, thereby enabling wireless connectivity of mobile devices with these mobile base stations. In this article, we use the term “mobile service” to refer to such radio communication between a mobile device and a mobile base station. Several generations (Gs) of mobile services, such as 2G, 3G and 4G, may simultaneously exist in the market. MoBro refers to mobile service generations from 3G onwards.
The range of data rate possible under 4G, varies from 14 Megabits per second (Mbps) to 100 Mbps, depending on the deployment use-case, which refers to specific geophysical environment and demographic conditions in the targeted market.
Long-Term Evolution (LTE) is a wireless network standard for voice and data communication between mobile devices and data terminals.
Network capacity refers to the traffic (voice and data) carrying capability of a mobile network owned by an MNO.
Radio spectrum, or spectrum, refers to the part of the electromagnetic spectrum, which can be used for radio communication purposes. Especially for mobile communications, certain radio frequencies, referred to as spectrum bands, or carrier-frequencies, are used across the globe, which are based on the specifications of global bodies such as International Telecommunication Union (ITU). Spectrum is the sovereign asset of national governments, which allocate the usage rights to various entities, such as Mobile Network Operators, through a suitable market mechanism, such as auctions, or otherwise. Spectrum bandwidth, or bandwidth, refers to the total range of frequencies falling within a particular band that is available for market disbursal by the government. At any given time, MNOs are availed a portion of the available bandwidth suitable for provisioning a certain service type, by the government.
The per-user consumption of mobile data has increased from 6 Gigabytes (GB) in the year 2016 to 10 GB in the year 2018 in India.
There have been four such policy initiatives in India, which were introduced in the form of National Telecom Policies (NTPs) during the years 1994, 1998, 2012 and 2018, respectively. NTP 2018 – rechristened later as National Digital Communications Policy (NDCP) – envisages as its primary objective the deployment of a robust MoBro infrastructure, such as 4G-LTE, which can enable universal connectivity, ushering in digital equity and inclusivity for millions of India’s unconnected citizens. The vision statement of NDCP accords equal importance to the information and communication needs of citizens as well as enterprises, and emphasizes upon the necessity of establishing “a ubiquitous, resilient, secure and affordable” digital communications infrastructure and services in the country (Department of Telecommunications, 2018).
In the absence of availability of the market adoption data of the innovation, heuristic-based approaches, which includes managerial inputs on the likely values of the parameters, are employed to generate insights pertaining to the likely diffusion of the innovation (Mahajan et al. 1993).
One may refer to (Jha & Saha, 2020) for an extensive review of literature concerning the diffusion of various generations of mobile services, incluing MoBro services.
The retailing of 4G-LTE, similar to other mobile services, could be either done by MNOs themselves, or by the Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs), who only lease the infrastructure from the MNOs. In India, MNOs both deploy the networks as well as retail the 4G-LTE services to consumers.
Notably, Sabat (2005), in an agenda-setting study, have analyzed the capital investment patterns of more than 300 global MNOs across the world for a period of 10 years, and have summarized: (i) the key drivers of capital investments for provisioning mobile services, (ii) the main categories of capital investments, (iii) the size and proportions of investments required in each categories, (iv) the evolutionary phases of the industry along with their cost drivers, (v) the key economic characteristics of such industry phases, and (vi) the infrastructure spending patterns of the largest firms.
A site is meant to represent a group of network components deployed as part of the last-mile LTE Radio Access Network (RAN) comprising of multiple eNodeBs, network equipment, backhaul, waveguides, antenna tower, etc. In our analysis, the total number of sites correspond to the total number of eNodeBs needed for deployment. For a detailed explanation of the 4G-LTE network architecture, one may refer to (Holma & Toskala, 2009).
We have also assessed Gompertz and Simple-logistic models with our dataset, however, Bass model estimates have been found to yield lower error variance, with the model displaying better goodness-of-fit with the available data. We have, therefore, used Bass model in all our diffusion and forecasting related analysis.
4G-LTE-capable carrier-frequencies in India include: 700 MHz (3GPP band B28), 850 MHz (3GPP band B5), 1800 MHz (3GPP band B3), 2100 MHz (3GPP band B1), 2300 MHz (3GPP band B40) and 2500 MHz (3GPP band B41). For the ease of analysis, we group the available set of carrier-frequencies into two cohorts in this study, namely, the sub 1 GHz cohort containing 700 and 850 MHz carrier frequencies, and 1–3 GHz cohort containing 1800, 2100, 2300, and 2500 MHz carrier frequencies (TRAI, 2017). We present all our results in the standardized (per MHz) format, which can be scaled to any spectrum bandwidth size as required by the stakeholders. This is considering that, in practice, MNOs may have access to a much larger (or smaller) pool of bandwidth scattered across multiple carrier-frequencies.
We assume that the coverage area spanned by each antenna system per site will follow a circular pattern. Cellular radius refers to the radii of such a circle.
Transceivers are devices which can both simultaneously transmit and receive information. In this context, by transceivers we are referring to the eNodeB components of the LTE network, also known as Base Stations in 2G and Base Transceiver Stations in 3G systems.
An MNO in India incurs spectrum costs, initially, at the time of the spectrum acquisition (part of CAPEX) during the spectrum auctions, and, later, as recurring payments in the form of Spectrum Usage Charges (SUC) and the License Fees (LFs) to the government, which is calculated as a fraction of the MNOs’ Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR). We account for the OPEX incurred under each carrier frequency and telecom circle combination in our analysis. We use the available data on the spectrum reserve prices as mandated by the GOI, for evaluating the CAPEX incurred under spectrum acquisition for all the chosen carrier frequencies (TRAI, 2017).
The annual spectrum license (SLLSA, Year) cost is derived using the base price valuations fixed by the government of India for the 700 MHz, 800 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz and 2300 MHz bands in each LSA (TRAI, 2017). We also assume, as per the government of India directives, the annual SUC to be 3% of the AGR per LSA in our calculations (TRAI, 2017).
Since the 700 MHz band was not auctioned at the time of the analysis, the reserve price fixed by the government is used in the calculations. Therefore, the actual CAPEX figures for 700 MHz-based deployments may eventually be higher than evaluated currently as the final bid prices may rise after the auctions.
The carrier frequencies in the sub 1 GHz range are generally priced higher due to their better cellular propagation capabilities, when compared to the carrier frequencies in the 1–3 GHz range.
Passive infrastructure sharing refers to the “sharing of physical space, for example by buildings, sites and masts, where networks remain separate. In active sharing, elements of the active layer of a mobile network are shared, such as antennas, entire base stations or even elements of the core network. Active sharing includes mobile roaming, which allows an operator to make use of another’s network in a place where it has no coverage or infrastructure of its own.” Source: International Telecommunication Union (ITU). URL: https://www.itu.int/. Accessed on August 13, 2020
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Jha, A., Saha, D. Mobile Broadband for Inclusive Connectivity: What Deters the High-Capacity Deployment of 4G-LTE Innovation in India?. Inf Syst Front 24, 1305–1329 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10796-021-10128-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10796-021-10128-6