Abstract
Chrysodeixis includens is a polyphagous pest restricted to the American continent. The occurrence of C. includens is allied, among other factors, by favorable conditions such as temperature, humidity, presence of hosts, and migratory behavior. In this work, we built spatiotemporal species distribution models at continental and global levels for the distribution of C. includens using CLIMEX to determine times and regions favorable for year-round survival and migration of this species and in case of invasion on other continents to apply timely and right phytosanitary measures. Our models estimated high climate suitability for C. includens in Central and large proportions of South America throughout the year. Moreover, there is suitability for C. includens growth in all months of the year in Central and northern part of South America. In the northern hemisphere, these conditions range from April to October, while in mid-southern parts of South America, favorable periods comprise October through June. The countries with the highest suitability for C. includens outside the American continent are located on the African and Asian continents. Our results show variable climate suitability for C. includens during the year that help to understand likely migration pattern in North America. This information would direct efforts for appropriate C. includens management during warm and moist periods of the year. Furthermore, our models notify the need for the development of strategies for the inspection and interception of C. includens especially in central Africa, India, South and Southeast Asia, and Northeast Australia.
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Electronic Supplementary Material (occurrence data and spatiotemporal model video) available.
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Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the Instituto Mato-Grossensse de Algodão (IMA) for providing the moth seasonality data and Dr. Darren Kriticos for providing the CRU climate time series dataset.
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This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001 and was supported by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico – CNPq).
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. JRSS, RSR, and RSS performed Chrysodeixis includens occurrence data collection, model parameter setting, and analysis. JRSS wrote the first draft, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Soares, J.R.S., da Silva, R.S., Ramos, R.S. et al. Distribution and invasion risk assessments of Chrysodeixis includens (Walker, [1858]) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) using CLIMEX. Int J Biometeorol 65, 1137–1149 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-021-02094-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-021-02094-0