Abstract
Policy design studies have addressed the role of political and institutional limitations in formulating effective climate policies including renewable energy targets (RETs). However, it is still not entirely clear how and why these limitations result in policy designs that are incapable of staying on track to meet the overall goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In order to deepen our understanding, this study introduces a friction perspective—one of the core components of the punctuated equilibrium theory used in policy change literature—and adopts it to the policy design process of energy transitions. This study argues that in cases where governments struggle to design stringent RETs, the level of friction between the elastic sub-coalitions (comprising bureaucrats and politicians) can shed light on policy design choices. By using a causal mechanism approach, the study developed several friction mechanisms to test how friction has been built and often dissolved, resulting in inadequate policy outcomes. The design process for setting Israel’s national RETs negotiated between 2015 and 2017 was used as a longitudinal case study to illustrate the role of friction and assess its impact. Unraveling how friction operates within policy design was found to be a good litmus test for the political feasibility of policy design choices. In other words, this study gives us a rudimentary blueprint of a “friction map” that, by tracing sequences of conflict and sequences of resolution, shows which particular design choices may generate more tension than others.
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Notes
In 2019, out of 156 formally submitted NDCs, 90% (or 140 NDCs) address renewable energy action for the power sector, and 67% (or 105 NDCs including one submitted on behalf all EU member countries) contain RETs for electricity generation (IRENA 2019).
As of 2019, only 12 of the G20 countries have included quantified RETs in their NDCs. Moreover, the implementation of those RETs leaves about 60% of the renewable energy potential for 2030 untapped by NDC targets (in a cost-effective way). For example, China leaves over 2 TW of renewables not captured by NDC targets, the USA leaves over 730 GW, and India leaves over 340 GW (IRENA 2019).
One example is California’s legislative policy design which has a regulatory framework which enables the state to be on track to meet its climate goals, including its RETs, and is known for its high levels of commitment (Meckling and Nahm 2018). On the other hand, RETs at the national level worldwide are mostly characterized by varying degrees of discretion (IRENA 2015: 52).
Walgrave and Vliegenthart also showed that policies punctuate because of cascading effects that occur from “positive feedback loops as actors imitate other actors” (2010:1147). Cascading and friction are, however, two separate independent variables. While consideration of the cascading effect to further explain how inadequate policy design choices develop might be just as important as the friction effect, it contributes independently to the typical punctuated pattern of policy agendas and was therefore not included in this study.
On September 29, 2015, Israel submitted its intended NDC with a mitigation target of reducing its per capita GHG emissions by 26% below the level in 2005 by 2030 (from 10.4 tCO2e per capita to 7.7 tCO2e) (The State of Israel 2015).
“The differential tax on coal will be determined in a way that reflects the costs to the economy as a result of air pollution caused by coal use” (Proposal 32 of Resolution 1403 2015).
“The ‘basic annual coal consumption’ will be determined for the minimum load required to operate the coal units and considering the constraints of the gas system” (Proposal 32 of Resolution 1403 2015).
On October 25, 2020, the Israeli government decided to revise its government resolution on ambition levels and increase it to 20% and 30% RETs of total electricity generation by 2025 and 2030, respectively (Government of Israel 2020). The resolution design process was mainly promoted by the elastic-browns and attracted much criticism from the elastic-greens, which, instead, tried to promote this resolution to set the ambition level in 2030 to 43% (Ministry of Environmental Protection 2020). However, this venue was not included in the study.
The term “win-set” is borrowed from the two-level game theory and refers to the set of all the possible agreements that would enable each group to “win” (Putnam 1988: 437).
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Appendices
Appendix 1
Proposals of Resolution 542: Reducing GHG emissions and increasing energy efficiency in the economy (Hebrew).
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Proposal 1 of Resolution 542, July 26, 2015
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Proposal 2 of Resolution 542, July 26, 2015
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Proposal 3 of Resolution 542, July 26, 2015
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Proposal 4 of Resolution 542, July 29, 2015
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Proposal 5 of Resolution 542, August 1, 2015
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Proposal 6 of Resolution 542, August 11, 2015
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Proposal 7 of Resolution 542, August 13, 2015
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Proposal 8 of Resolution 542, August 16, 2015
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Proposal 9 of Resolution 542, August 26, 2015
Proposals of Resolution 1403: National plan to implement greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets and energy efficiency (Hebrew).
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Proposal 2 of Resolution 1403, October 21, 2015
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Proposal 3 of Resolution 1403, October 21, 2015
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Proposal 4 of Resolution 1403, October 21, 2015
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Proposal 5a of Resolution 1403, October 21, 2015
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Proposal 5b of Resolution 1403, Revised Version, October 21, 2015
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Proposal 6a of Resolution 1403, October 21, 2015
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Proposal 6b of Resolution 1403, Print Version, October 21, 2015
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Proposal 7 of Resolution 1403, October 27, 2015
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Proposal 8a of Resolution 1403, October 27, 2015
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Proposal 8b of Resolution 1403, Revised Version, October 28, 2015
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Proposal 9 of Resolution 1403, October 29, 2015
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Proposal 30a of Resolution 1403, Administrator's Alternative, November 12, 2015
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Proposal 30b of Resolution 1403, Alternative 1—Gradual, November 12, 2015
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Proposal 30c of Resolution 1403, Alternative 2, November 12, 2015
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Proposal 32 of Resolution 1403, November 16, 2015
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Proposal 33 of Resolution 1403, November 16, 2015
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Proposal 34 of Resolution 1403, November 16, 2015
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Proposal 35 of Resolution 1403, November 16, 2015
Appendix 2
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Carmon, O., Fischhendler, I. A friction perspective for negotiating renewable energy targets: the Israeli case. Policy Sci 54, 313–344 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11077-021-09419-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11077-021-09419-1