Abstract
Social vulnerability illuminates differences in human capacity to prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters. It varies over space and time and among social groups, largely due to variations in socioeconomic and demographic features. The Makran Subduction Zone is one of the known active seismic sources that can generate devastating shaking and tsunami disasters in District Gwadar, Pakistan, such as a large earthquake of moment magnitude 8.1 in 1945. This study presents the first social vulnerability index study for District Gwadar in relation to imminent earthquake-tsunami hazards and shows how SoVI concepts and indicators are adopted. SoVI follows a place-based framework that was originally adopted in developing social vulnerability index for the USA. To assess social vulnerability to earthquakes and tsunamis in Gwadar, we evaluate a social vulnerability index at village level. Using a principal component analysis, 16 village-level indicators are condensed to five factors that explain 64.2% of the variance in the data. Although different factors contribute to the social vulnerability in each village, the overall results confirm the social and economic disparities among villages and reflect differential vulnerability to natural hazards at local to regional scales. Finally, a map of social vulnerability index is compared with seismic-tsunami hazard maps to identify the communities living in risky zones. The approaches and results presented in this study will help emergency managers to identify community sub-groups that are more susceptible to disaster risks and to develop effective risk reduction strategies that are tailored to local conditions.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The census-based data used in this study were obtained from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (2017) at http://www.pbs.gov.pk/ and Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey (2014–2015) at http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/pakistan-social-and-living-standards-measurement. The PGA for District Gwadar were obtained from the interactive GEM hazard mapping tool at https://www.globalquakemodel.org/gem.
References
Alif Ailaan and SDPI (2015) Pakistan District Education Rankings. Islamabad vi-80 pp. ISBN 978-969-23023-6-4
Anderies JM, Janssen MA (2013) Robustness of social–ecological systems: implications for public policy. Pol Stud J 41:513–536. https://doi.org/10.1111/psj.12027
Andrey J, Jones B (2008) The dynamic nature of social disadvantage: Implications for hazard exposure and vulnerability in Greater Vancouver. Can Geogr/Le Géogr Can 52(2):146–168
Asif M (2009) Sustainable energy options for Pakistan. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 13:903–909. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2008.04.001
Baker JL (ed) (2012) Climate change, disaster risk, and the urban poor: cities building resilience for a changing world. The World Bank, Washington
Bird P (2003) An updated digital model of plate boundaries. Geochem Geophys Geosyst 4(3):1027. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GC000252
Birkmann J (2007) Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales – applicability, usefulness and policy implications. Environ Hazards 7:20–31
Birkmann J (2013) Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards, towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University Press, Bonn
Brinkmann J, Teichman K (2010) Integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: key challenges-scales, knowledge, and norms,. Sustain Sci 5(2):171–184. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-010-0108-y
Blaikie P, Cannon T, Davis I, Wisner B (1994) At risk: natural hazards, people’s vulnerability, and disasters. Routledge, London
Building Codes of Pakistan Seismic Provisions (2007). Pakistan Engineering council. http://www.pec.org.pk/buildingcode.aspx. Accessed 5 January 2019
Burton CJ, Cutter SL (2008) Levee failures and social vulnerability in the Sacremento- San Joaquin delta area. Calif Nat Hazards Rev 9(3):136–149. https://doi.org/10.1061/ASCE1527-6988.20089:3.136
Byrne DE, Sykes LR, Davis SM (1992) Great thrust earthquakes and a seismic slip along the plate boundary of the Makran subduction zone. J Geophys Res 97:449–478
Cardona OD (2003) Indicators for Disaster Risk Managemen, First Expert Meeting on Disaster Risk Conceptualization and Indicator Modelling Manizales. http://idea.manizales.unal.edu.co/ProyectosEspeciales/adminIDEA/CentroDocumentacin/DocDigitales/ documentos/01%20Conceptual%20Framework%20IADB-IDEA%20Phase %20I.pdf. Accessed 20 July 2019
Castro CP, Ibarra I, Lukas M, Ortiz J, Sarmiento JP (2015) Disaster risk construction in the progressive consolidation of informal settlements: iquique and puerto montt (Chile) case studies. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 13:109–127
Cochrane H (1975) Natural hazards and their distributive effects Institute of Behavioral Sciences . University of Colorado, Boulder
Cutter SL (1996) Vulnerability to environmental hazards. Prog Hum Geogr 20:529–539. https://doi.org/10.1177/030913259602000407
Cutter SL (2006) Hazards, vulnerability and environmental justice. Earthscan, London
Cutter SL, Morath DP (2013) The evolution of the Social Vulnerability Index. In: Birkmann J (ed) Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards. United Nations University Press, Bonn, pp 304–321
Cutter SL, Mitchell JT, Scott MS (2000) Revealing the vulnerability of people and places: a case study of Georgetown County, South Carolina. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 90(4):713–737. https://doi.org/10.1111/0004-5608.00219
Cutter SL, Bryan L, Boruff J, Shirley LW (2003) Social Vulnerability to environmental hazards. Soc Sci Quart 84(2):242–261. https://doi.org/10.1111/Soc.Sci.20021540.6237
Dilley M (2006) Disaster risk hotspots, a project summary. In: Birkmann J (ed) Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards, towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University Press, New York, pp 182–188
De Oliveira Mendes JM (2009) Social vulnerability indexes as planning tools: beyond the preparedness paradigm. J Risk Res 12(1):43–58. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669870802447962
Economic Survey of Pakistan (2014) http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey_1314.html. Accessed 13 July 2019
Emrich CT, Cutter SL (2011) Social vulnerability to climate-sensitive hazards in the Southern United States. Weather, Clim Soc 3:193–208
FALAH (2010) Family Advancement for Life and Health Gwadar Baseline Household Survey. http://web.ndma.gov.pk/publications/Baseline%20Household%20Survey%20Gwadar.pdf Accessed July 2019
IUCN (2007) Government of Balochistan and IUCN Pakistan, Gwadar: Integrated Development Vision. http://web.ndma.gov.pk/publications/Gwadar%20integrated%20development%20vision.pdf. Accessed 5August 2019
Harijan K, Uqaili MA, Memon M, Mirza UK (2009) Assessment of centralized grid connected wind power cost in the coastal area of Pakistan. Renew Energy 34:369–373. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2008.05.001
Heidarzadeh M, Pirooz MD, Zaker NH, Yalciner AC (2009) Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Nat Hazards 48:229–243. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9259-x
Iftikhar MN, Xie L, Shakeel K, Jamali S, Khan M, Cheema KH, Shahid M (2019) The institutional and urban design of Gwadar City. https://www.theigc.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Iftikhar-et-al-2019-Final-report.pdf. Accessed 6 Feb 2020
Ismail-Zadeh AT (2016) Geohazard research, modeling, and assessment for disaster risk reduction. Rus J Earth Sci. https://doi.org/10.2205/2016ES000572
Jaiswal P, van Westen C (2013) Use of quantitative landslide hazard and risk information for local disaster risk reduction along a transportation corridor: a case study from Nilgiri District, India. Nat Hazards 65:887–913. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069.012.0404.1
Jones B, Andrey J (2007) Vulnerability index construction: methodological choices and their influence on identifying vulnerable neighborhoods. Int J Emerg Manag 4(2):269–295
Kasperson JX, Kasperson RE (2001) Climate change vulnerability and social justice. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm
Kirsch TD, Wadhwani C, Sauer L, Catlett C (2012) Impact of the 2010 Pakistan floods on rural and urban populations at six months. PLoS Currents 22:4
Lewis J (2012) The good, the bad and the ugly: disaster risk reduction (DRR) versus disaster risk creation (DRC). PLOS Curr Disas Edition. https://doi.org/10.1371/4f8d4eaec6af8
LEAD (2015) Pakistan national briefing: economic losses from disasters. Leadership for Environment and Development, Islamabad
Luttrell TB, Distelberg B, Wilson C, Knudson-Martin C, Moline M (2018) Exploring the relationship balance assessment. Contemp Fam Ther 40(1):10–27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10591-017-9421-2
Mahar GA, Ahmed R, Iqbal MJ, Azam M (2019) Tsunami threat versus development activities along the coast of Pakistan: a geographic assessment. Glob NEST J 21(3):347–354. https://doi.org/10.30955/gnj.002878
Mahmood N, Khan K, Rafi Z, Lovholt F (2012) Mapping of tsunami hazard along Makran coast of Pakistan. http://seismic.pmd.gov.pk/assets/modules/projects/5bd048391e799Mapping-of-Tsunami-Hazard-along-Makran-Coast.pdf. Accessed 5 July 2019
Mokhtari M, Fard IA, Hessami K (2008) Structural elements of the Makran region, Oman Sea and their potential relevance to tsunamigenisis. Nat Hazards 47:185–199. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-007-9208-0
Momeni P, Goda K, Heidarzadeh M, Qin J (2020) Stochastic analysis of tsunami hazard of the 1945 Makran subduction zone Mw 8.1–8.3 earthquakes. Geosciences 10(11):452. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences10110452
Pagani M, Garcia-Pelaez J, Gee R, Johnson K, Poggi V, Styron R, Weatherill G, Simionato M, Viganò D, Danciu L, Monelli D (2018) Global seismic hazard map. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.13117/GEM-GLOBAL-SEISMIC-HAZARD-MAP-2018.1
Page W (1979) Evidence for the recurrence of large-magnitude earthquakes along the Makran Coast of Iran and Pakistan. Tectonophysics 52(1–4):533–547. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(79)90269-5
Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey (2015). http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/pakistan-social-and-living-standards-measurement. Accessed 23 November 2019
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (2017). http://www.pbs.gov.pk/. Accessed 12 June 2019
Peduzzi P, Dao H, Herold C, Mouton F (2009) Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the disaster risk index. Nat Hazard 9:1149–1159
Pelling M (2003) The vulnerability of cities: natural disaster and social resilience. Earthscan, London
Perrow C (2007) The next catastrophe. Princeton, NJ
Rashidi A, Shomali ZH, Dutykh D, Farajkhah NK (2020) Tsunami hazard assessment in the Makran subduction zone. Nat Hazards 100:861–875
Reams MA, Lam NSN, Baker A (2012) Measuring capacity for resilience among coastal counties of the U. S. northern Gulf of Mexico region. Am J Clim Change 4:194–204. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2012.14016
Rehman SU, Khalid M, Ali A, El-Aal AEK (2013) Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar City, Pakistan. Arab J Geosci 6:3481–3492. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-012-0635-1
Sarkar A, Vulimiri A, Bose S, Paul S, Ray S (2008) Unsupervised hyperspectral image analysis with projection pursuit and MRF segmentation approach. Artif Intell Pattern Recognit 8:120–127
Schmidtlein M, Shafer J, Berry M, Cutter SL (2011) Modeled earthquake losses and social vulnerability in Charleston, South Carolina. Appl Geogr 31:269–281
Shaikh F, Ji Q, Fan Y (2015) The diagnosis of an electricity crisis and alternative energy development in Pakistan. Renew Sust Energ 52:1172–1185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.08.009
Siagian TH, Purhadi P, Suhartono S, Ritonga H (2014) Social vulnerability to natural hazards in Indonesia: driving factors and policy implications. Nat Hazards 70(2):603–1617. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0888-3
Sultan M, Ahmed KI (2017) Statistical analysis of earthquakes and tsunami of makran subduction zone (msz), and tsunami hazard assessment of Gwadar coast. J Earth Sci Clim Change 8:408. https://doi.org/10.4172/2329-6542.1000408
Tarbotton C, Dall’Osso F, Dominey-Howes D, Goff J (2015) the use of empirical vulnerability functions to assess the response of buildings to tsunami impact: comparative review and summary of best practice. Earth-Sci 142:120–134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.01.002
Tate E, Cutter SL, Berry M (2010) Integrated multihazard mapping, environment and planning B. Plann Des 37(4):646–663
Tate E (2013) Uncertainty analysis for a social vulnerability index. Annals Assoc Am Geogr 103(3):526–543.
UNISDR (2015) Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction (GAR15). Making development sustainable, The future of disaster risk management. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva
Varnes DJ (1984) and The international association of engineering geology commission on landslides and other mass movements. landslide hazard zonation: a review of principles and practice., UNESCO Paris, France,
Waseem M, Khan S, Asif Khan M (2020) Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Pakistan Territory using an areal source model. Geophys Pure Appl. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-020-02455-7
Wood NJ, Burton CJ, Cutter SL (2010) Community variations in social vulnerability to cascadia-related Tsunamis in the US Pacific Northwest. Nat Haz 52(2):369–389
Worden CB, Gerstenberger MC, Rhoades DA, Wald DJ (2012) Probabilistic relationships between ground-motion parameters and modified mercalli intensity in California. Bull Seismol Soc Am 102:204–221
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by International Research Support Initiative Program, Higher Education Commission, Islamabad, Pakistan. The research stay of the first author was supported by the Department of Earth Sciences, Western University.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
AM, MA, and GM designed the research; KG and AM conducted the statistical analysis and drafted the manuscript; and all authors discussed the results and commented on the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mengal, A., Goda, K., Ashraf, M. et al. Social vulnerability to seismic-tsunami hazards in district Gwadar, Balochistan, Pakistan. Nat Hazards 108, 1159–1181 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04724-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04724-7