Recent changing characteristics of dry and wet spells in Canada

Abstract

Under the possible impact of climate warming, recent changes in dry and wet spells have contributed significantly to climate-related hazards around the world. In this work, spatial and temporal variations in dry and wet spells over Canada are investigated using daily precipitation data from 1979 to 2018. The time-varying relationships between precipitation spells and large-scale climate anomalies are modeled using a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Bayesian quantile regression. Over the period 1979–2018, significant changes in dry and wet spells have been observed across Canada, particularly in the southern Canadian Prairies (CP), where both the number and duration of dry spells show positive trends. Dry and wet spells over many parts of Canada are nonstationary under the effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA), with PNA having stronger effects on annual maximum dry spells than ENSO, especially in the central CP and eastern Ontario. For western Canada, the influence of ENSO on dry spells tends to be relatively strong, especially for dry spells of high quantiles, as El Niño generally induces atmospheric moisture deficit. For central Canada, ENSO and PNA have a negative (positive) impact on the wet spell duration of low (high) quantiles. For eastern Canada, PNA is negatively correlated with the duration of wet spells, especially for wet spells of high quantiles. Therefore, a better understanding of the spatial and temporal variability in dry and wet spell return periods will be useful for the effective management of water resources, and for developing effective disaster mitigation measures against the possible social and economic impacts of climate-related hazards.