Abstract
Increasing global trends in time series of annual maximum daily streamflow (AMX) raise the concern that the safety of dams and other sensitive structures is compromised. There is no defined methodology to estimate the design flood (DF) under non-stationarity; thus, the objective of this work is to evaluate the behavior of the hydrological risk of Brazilian dams due to the non-stationary nature of the AMX time series and the implications of the non-stationary nature of the AMX time series in the design of new dams. For this, the hydrological risk of 108 AMX time series was evaluated, comparing the time intervals between 1954–1984 and 1954–2014. A case study was also executed, where the DF was estimated in a non-stationary time series. The generalized distribution of extreme values (GEV) was applied in the time series analyses. The results indicate that the hydrological risk of Brazilian dams increased, and safety may have been reduced. Regarding the ranking of models, the use of physical covariates in the estimate of the DF makes the estimates more reliable. Finally, although significant trends are good indicators, they alone do not guarantee a reduction or increase in risk. It was also observed that using non-stationary models is less important than updating the estimates with newly observed data.
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Acknowledgements
We thank the reviewers for their work; their suggestions were important to improving this study. This research was supported by the UNIEDU/FUMDES, FAPESC, and CNPq. We thank ANA for providing data and special thanks to the authors, Mojca Šraj and José Genivaldo do Vale Moreira, for accessing the data of their studies.
Funding
Monthly student grant by PROGRAMA UNIEDU/FUMDES PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO (1423/SED/2019).
Financial support by FAPESC (grant 2016TR2525).
The productivity scholarship by CNPq (process 440938/2017-1).
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Theoretical-conceptual foundation and problematization: Adilson, Daniel, Leandro
Data research and statistical analysis: Leandro, Daniel, Adilson
Elaboration of figures and tables: Leandro
Elaboration and writing of the text and selection of references: Leandro, Adilson, Daniel.
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Isensee, L.J., Pinheiro, A. & Detzel, D.H.M. Dam Hydrological Risk and the Design Flood Under Non-stationary Conditions. Water Resour Manage 35, 1499–1512 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-021-02798-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-021-02798-3