Warming climate and elevated atmospheric CO2 will generally increase yield levels.
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Higher precipitation creates risks for higher nitrogen leaching.
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Management affected the sustainability indicators more than changing climate.
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There is a large potential for sustainably intensifying crop production.
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Improved cultivars showed the firmest positive impacts.
Abstract
CONTEXT
Sustainable intensification (SI) is needed to cope with the challenges agriculture faces with respect to climate change and increasing food demand. Northern cropping systems may benefit from longer and warmer growing seasons, but the sustainability of production will be challenged due to increased production risks. Concentrated efforts are needed to find ways to adapt cropping to changing conditions and sustainably intensify production.
OBJECTIVE
This study combined stakeholder knowledge and simulation modelling to find means for the sustainable intensification of cereal production in the North Savo region in Finland.
METHODS
Stakeholders identified promising intensification measures in two workshops. Alternative options for sustainable intensification and climate adaptations and their combinations were assessed using the APSIM cropping system model. The model was used to assess cereal yields, the grain nitrogen (N) content, nitrate leaching and water productivity for a historical baseline (1981–2010) and mid-century conditions (2041–2070) projected by five general circulation models for different emission scenarios. Simulated management options included improved cultivars with later maturing characteristics, improved heat/drought resistance and nitrogen-use efficiency, increased N fertilisation levels, improved crop rotations together with improved soil, as well as supplementary and full irrigation.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
The simulation results indicated that although a warming climate in conjunction with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations generally increase yield levels, N uptake and water productivity, risks associated with higher N leaching due to increased precipitation are a challenge for the sustainability of crop production. Overall, different SI options affected the sustainability indicators studied more than future projected climate, strongly suggesting that there is a large potential for sustainably intensifying crop production in northern conditions, particularly when applying more than one intensification measure at a time. Among a wide set of SI options tested for their sustainability impacts, improved crop cultivars showed the firmest positive impacts. This was supported by the views of agricultural stakeholders in the region.
SIGNIFICANCE
While the agricultural stakeholder's suggestions for alternative SI options challenged the simulation approach to some extent, the simulations provided robust information for comparing the sustainability impacts of alternative measures.
