Inclusion of uncertainty in Environmental Impact Assessment in Greenland

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Highlights

  • Uncertainty as an inherent part of IA warrants attention in research and practice.

  • Only few explicit acknowledgements of uncertainty is found in EIA processes.

  • Uncertainty is often indicated e.g. using wording such as ‘unlikely’ or ‘typical’.

Abstract

Uncertainty is an inherent part of impact assessment (IA), and can vary in type and source. However, according to previous research, uncertainty is rarely explicitly acknowledged and handled in IA, indicating that it is a challenging issue in practice. This paper adds to the current research body a study of EIA in Greenland, which includes a document study of EIA reports as well as white papers and summaries from public hearings. The study findings are in line with previous results, finding a limited explicit acknowledgement of uncertainty, although uncertainty is indicated through implicit language use. The study also finds that various tools are applied, which could be used for handling uncertainty, including sensitivity analysis, monitoring and worst-case estimates. However, often these tools are not used systematically, and it is not transparent whether they are targeted at handling uncertainty. Regarding the examination of materials from hearing processes, there is little evidence that uncertainty is part of the discussions. These results initiate discussions of how choices of whether and how to acknowledge and handle uncertainty are made, and how consciously participants in the process make these choices.

Section snippets

Introduction: impact assessment as a tool for integrating uncertainty in decision-making

Impact Assessment (IA) can be defined as “the process of identifying the future consequences of a current or proposed action” (IAIA, 2009 p. 1). The purpose of IA is to promote sustainable development by providing science-based information on the possible impacts of a proposed action to decision-makers as well as the public. Thus, mitigation and monitoring of impacts and promoting transparency and participation in the process are important parts of IA. (IAIA, 2009) As indicated by the

Methodology

In order to contribute to exploring the questions posed above, three Greenlandic EIA processes (Table 2) were selected based on the following criteria:

  • Geography: securing cases from different geographical areas of Greenland while focusing on areas with a local population

  • Status: securing cases in different stages of the project process from preparation to operation

  • Legislation: securing at least one case which has been processed according to each of the two sets of EIA legislation in Greenland

The

Uncertainty in the EIA process

In the following subsections, the results concerning whether and how uncertainty is acknowledged in the EIA reports and hearings are presented, in accordance with the first research question.

Handling uncertainty in the EIA process

In the following subsections, the results concerning whether and how uncertainty handled in the EIA reports and hearings are presented to address the second research question.

Conclusion and discussion

In the following sections, conclusions are drawn and discussed, structured according to the two research questions:

  • Is uncertainty acknowledged in EIA processes and how is it acknowledged?

  • Are tools and approaches used to deal with uncertainty in EIA processes, and which tools and approaches are used?

Author statement

All work has been done by the sole author except proof reading by Proofreading Service UK.

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgements

This work was made possible by participation in the Fulbright Arctic Initiative and funding from the Fulbright Commission. The Fulbright Commission had no involvement in the research or publication process.

Sanne Vammen Larsen is an Associate Professor at The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University.

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    Sanne Vammen Larsen is an Associate Professor at The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University.

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