Abstract
Precise macroeconomic forecasting is one of the major aims of economic analysis because it facilitates a timely assessment of future economic conditions and can be used for monetary, fiscal, and economic policy purposes. Numerous works have studied the behavior of the macroeconomic situation and have developed models to forecast them. However, the existing models have limitations, and the literature demands more research on the subject given that the accuracy of the models is still poor, and they have only been expanded for developed countries. This paper presents a comparison of methodologies for GDP growth forecasting and, consequently, new forecasting models of GDP growth have been constructed with the ability to estimate accurately future scenarios globally. A sample of 70 countries was used, which has allowed the use of sample combinations that consider the regional heterogeneity of the warning indicators. To the sample under study, different methods have been applied to achieve a high accuracy model, comparing Quantum Computing with Deep Learning procedures, being Deep Neural Decision Trees, which has provided excellent prediction results thanks to large-scale processing with mini-batch-based learning and can be connected to any larger Neural Networks model. Our model has a great potential impact on the adequacy of macroeconomic policy, providing tools that help to achieve macroeconomic and monetary stability at the global level, and creating new methodological opportunities for GDP growth forecasting.
Similar content being viewed by others
Change history
25 March 2021
on page 1, the corresponding author's affiliation “Mangement” included for blind review was replaced with “Management”
References
Adachi, S. H., & Henderson, M. P. (2015). Application of quantum annealing to training of deep neural networks. ArXiv eprints, 1510.06356.
Alaminos, D., Fernández, S. M., García, F., & Fernández, M. A. (2018). Data mining for municipal financial distress prediction, Advances in Data Mining, Applications and Theoretical Aspects. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 10933, 296–308. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-95786-9_23.
Barsoum, F., & Stankiewicz, S. (2015). Forecasting GDP growth using mixed-frequency models with switching regimes. International Journal of Forecasting, 31, 33–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.04.002.
Batchelor, R., & Dua, P. (1992). Survey expectations in the time series consumption function. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 74, 598–606.
Batchelor, R., & Dua, P. (1998). Improving macro-economic forecasts: The role of consumer confidence. International Journal of Forecasting, 14, 71–81.
Benedetti, M., Realpe-Gómez, J., Biswas, R., & Perdomo-Ortiz, A. (2017). Quantum-assisted learning of hardware-embedded probabilistic graphical models. Physical Review. X 7. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevX.7.041052.
Benedetti, M., Realpe-Gómez, J., Biswas, R., & Perdomo-Ortiz, A. (2016). Estimation of effective temperaturas in quantum annealers for sampling applications: A case study with possible applications in deep learning. Physical Review. A 92. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevA.4,022308.
Bengio, Y. (2009). Learning deep architectures for artificial intelligence. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 2 (1): 1-127.
Bergström, R. (1995). The relationship between manufacturing production and different business survey series in Sweden 1968–1992. International Journal of Forecasting, 11, 379–393. SSDI: 0169–2070(95)00601-X.
Carriero, A., Clark, T. E., & Marcellino, M. (2019). Large Bayesian vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility and non-conjugate priors. Journal of Econometrics, 212, 137–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.04.024.
Carriero, A., Galvão, A. B., & Kapetanios, G. (2019). A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods. International Journal of Forecasting, 35, 1226–1239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.02.007.
Camba-Mendez, G., Kapetanios, G., Smith, R. J., & Weale, M. R. (2001). An automatic leading indicator of economic activity: Forecasting GDP growth for European countries. Econometrics Journal, 4, S56–S90.
Claveria, O., Monte, E., & Torra, S. (2019). Evolutionary computation for macroeconomic forecasting. Computational Economics, 53(21), 833–849. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-017-9767-4.
Clark, T.,E. (2011). Real-time density forecasts from bayesian vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 29(3), 327–341. https://doi.org/10.1198/jbes.2010.09248.
Clark, T. E., & Ravazzolo, F. (2015). Macroeconomic forecasting performance under alternative specifications of time-varying volatility. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30, 551–575. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2379.
Clements, M. P., & Galvão, A. B. (2008). Macroeconomic forecasting with mixed-frequency data. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 26(4), 546–554. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500108000000015.
Delen, D., Kuzey, C., & Uyar, A. (2013). Measuring firm performance using financial ratios: A decision tree approach. Expert Systems with Applications, 40, 3970–3983. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2013.01.012.
Diebold, F. X., Schorfheide, F., & Shin, M. (2017). Real-time forecast evaluation of DSGE models with stochastic volatility. Journal of Econometrics, 201, 322–332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.08.011.
Dougherty, J., Kohavi, R., & Sahami, M. (1995). Supervised and unsupervised discretization of continuous features. In Proceedings of the Twelfth International Conference on Machine Learning, Tahoe City, CA, USA, 9–12 July 1995.
Farhi, E., Goldstone, J., Gutmann, S., Lapan, J., Lundgren, A., & Preda, D. (2001). A quantum adiabatic evolution algorithm applied to random instances of an NP-complete problem. Science, 292(5516), 472–475. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1057726.
Ferrara, L., Marcellino, M., & Mogliani, M. (2015). Macroeconomic Forecasting during the Great Recessions: The return of non-linearity? International Journal of Forecasting, 31, 664–679. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.11.005.
Ghoddusi, H., Creamer, G. G., & Rafizadeh, N. (2019). Machine learning in energy economics and finance: A review. Energy Economics, 81(C), 709–727. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.05.006.
Gonçalves, C. P. S. (2019). Quantum neural machine learning: Theory and experiments, Chap. 5, Artificial intelligence-applications in medicine and biology. IntechOpen, London (2019). https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.84149.
Hansson, J., Jansson, P., & Löf, M. (2005). Business survey data: Do they help in forecasting GDP growth? International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 377–389. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2004.11.003.
Henrique, B. M., Sobreiro, V. A., & Kimura, H. (2019). Literature review: Machine learning techniques applied to financial market prediction. Expert Systems with Applications, 124, 226–251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2019.01.012.
Ho, T. K. (1998). The random subspace method for constructing decision forests. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 20, 832–844.
Huang, C. W., & Narayanan, S. S. (2017). Deep convolutional recurrent neural network with attention mechanism for robust speech emotion recognition. In IEEE International conference on multimedia and expo (ICME).
Kapetanios, G., Marcellino, M., & Papailias, F. (2016). Forecasting inflation and GDP growth using heurtisic optimisation of information criteria and variable reduction methods. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 100, 369–382. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2015.02.017.
Koop, G. M. (2013). Forecasting with medium and large bayesian VARs. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 28, 177–203. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1270.
Koprinska, I., Rana, M., & Rahman, A. (2019). Dynamic ensemble using previous and predicted future performance for Multi-step-ahead solar power forecasting. ICANN 2019: Artificial Neural Networks and Machine Learning, 11730, 436–449. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30490-4_35.
Kuzin, V., Marcellino, M., & Schumacher (2013). Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting GDP with many predictors: empirical evidence for six industrialized countries. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 28, 392–411. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2279.
Li, M. W., Geng, J., Wang, S., & Hong, W. C. (2017). Hybrid chaotic quantum bat algorithm with SVR in electric load forecasting. Energies, 10, 2180.
Ma, M., & Mao, Z. (2019). Deep recurrent convolutional neural network for remaining useful life prediction. In IEEE international conference on prognostics and health management (ICPHM).
Makridakis, S., Spiliotis, E., & Assimakopoulos, V. (2018). Statistical and machine learning forecasting methods: Concerns and ways forward. PLoS ONE, 13(3), e0194889. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194889.
Mahajan, R. P. (2011). A quantum neural network approach for portfolio selection. International Journal of Computer Applications, 29(4), 47–54.
Marcellino, M. (2008). A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation. Journal of Forecasting, 27, 305–340 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1002/for.1059.
Marcellino, M., Porqueddu, M., & Venditti, F. (2016). Short-term GDP forecasting with a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 34(1), 118–127. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2015.1006773.
Martinsen, K., Ravazzolo, F., & Wulsberg, F. (2014). Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data. International Journal of Forecasting, 30, 65–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.02.003.
Moews, B., Herrmann, J. M., & Ibikunle, G. (2019). Lagged correlation-based deep learning for directional trend change prediction in financial time series. Expert Systems with Applications, 120, 197–206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2018.11.027.
Montano, I. H., Marques, G., Alonso, S. G., et al. (2020). Predicting absenteeism and temporary disability using machine learning: A systematic review and analysis. Journal of Medical Systems, 44, 162. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10916-020-01626-2.
Moss, C. F., & Sinha, S. R. (2003). Neurobiology of echolocation in bats. Current Opinion in Neurobiology, 13, 751–758. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conb.2003.12.001.
Norouzi, M., Collins, M. D., Johnson, M., Fleet, D. J., & Kohli, P. (2015). Efficient non-greedy optimization of decision trees. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 28 (NIPS 2015). The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Pesantez-Narvaez, J., Guillen, M., & Alcañiz, M. A. (2020). A synthetic penalized logitboost to model mortgage lending with imbalanced data. Computational Economics, published online. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-020-10059-5.
Quinlan, J. R. (1993). C4,5: Programs for Machine Learning, Morgan Kaufmann PublishersInc,: Burlington, MA, USA, 1993.
Reyes, C., Hilaire, T., Paul, S., & Mecklenbräuker, C. F. (2010). Evaluation of the root mean square error performance of the PAST-Consensus algorithm. IEEE , 2010 International ITG Workshop on Smart Antennas (WSA), Bremen (pp. 156–160). https://doi.org/10.1109/WSA.2010.5456452.
Salas, M. B., Alaminos, D., Fernández, M. A., & López-Valverde, F. (2020). A global prediction model for sudden stops of capital flows using decision trees. PLOS ONE, 15(2), e0228387. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0228387.
Saltelli, A. (2002). Making best use of model evaluations to compute sensitivity indices. Computer Physics Communications, 145, 280–297. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0010-4655(02)00280-1.
Sanhudo, L., Calvetti, D., Martins, J. P., Ramos, N. M. M., Mêda, P., Gonçalves, M. P., & Sousa, H. (2020). Activity classification using accelerometers and machine learning for complex construction worker activities. Journal of Building Engineering, In Press, Corrected Proof. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jobe.2020.102001.
Schorfheide, F., & Song, D. (2015). Real-time forecasting with a mixed-frequency VAR. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 33(3), 366–380. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2014.954707.
Seng, K. P., Ang, L., Schmidtke, L. M., & Rogiers, S. Y. (2018). Computer vision and machine learning for viticulture technology. IEEE Access: Practical Innovations, Open Solutions, 6, 67494–67510. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2018.2875862.
Smets, F., Warne, A., & Wouters, R. (2014). Professional forecasters and real-time forecasting with a DSGE model. International Journal of Forecasting, 30, 0981–995. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.03.018.
Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (2002). Macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(2), 147–162. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102317351921.
Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (2003). Forecasting output and inflation: The role of asset prices. Journal of Economic Literature. Vol, CLI, 788–829.
Wan, K. H., Dahlsten, O., Kristjánsson, H., Gardner, R., & Kim, M. S. (2017). Quantum generalisation of feedforward neural networks. NPJ Quantum Information, 3 (36). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41534-017-0032-4.
Wu, Z., Zhang, W., Zhao, J., Chen, C., & Ji, P. (2019). Optimized complex network method (OCNM) for improving accuracy of measuring human attention in single-electrode neurofeedback system. Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience, 2167871, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/2167871.
Yang, Y., Garcia-Morillo, I., & Hospedales, T. M. (2018). Deep neural decision trees. In ICML workshop on human interpretability in machine learning (WHI 2018), Stockholm, Sweden.
Zidan, M., Abdel-Aty, A.-H., El-shafei, M., Feraig, M., Al-Sbou, Y., Eleuch, H., & Abdel-Aty, M. (2019). Quantum classification algorithm based on competitive learning neural network and entanglement measure. Applied Sciences, 9, 1277. https://doi.org/10.3390/app9071277.
Zhang, J., Li, L., & Chen, W. (2020). Predicting stock price using two–stage machine learning techniques. Computational Economics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-020-10013-5.
Zhang, G. P., & Qi, M. (2005). Neural network forecasting for seasonal and trend time series. European Journal of Operational Research, 160, 501–514. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2003.08.037.
Zhao, Y., Li, J., & Yu, L. (2017). A deep learning ensemble approach for crude oil price forecasting. Energy Economics, 66(C), 9–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.05.023.
Zhong, X., & Enke, D. (2019). Predicting the daily return direction of the stock market using hybrid machine learning algorithms. Financial Innovation, 5, 24. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-019-0138-0.
Funding
The authors did not receive support from any organization for the submitted work.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.
Ethical Approval
This article does not contain any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Alaminos, D., Salas, M.B. & Fernández-Gámez, M.A. Quantum Computing and Deep Learning Methods for GDP Growth Forecasting. Comput Econ 59, 803–829 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-021-10110-z
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-021-10110-z