Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-wzw2p Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-05-10T05:32:17.386Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

DO ECONOMISTS EXPECT TOO MUCH FROM EXPECTATIONS?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 March 2021

Martin Weale*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Economy and King’s Business School, King’s College, London, United Kingdom Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, London, United Kingdom Centre for Macroeconomics, London School of Economics, London, United Kingdom
*
*Corresponding author. Email: martin.weale@kcl.ac.uk

Abstract

Modern economic theory gives an important role to expectations as an influence on outcomes. This paper reviews evidence on how well measures of expectations conform to outcomes. It confirms earlier results that measures taken from financial markets perform poorly as predictors of outcomes. Looking at the individual responses to the Confederation of British Industry’s Industrial Trends Survey, it does find, however, that there are significant correlations between expected and realised outcomes of wages, prices, costs orders and employment. It also finds some evidence that actual prices reflect expected future prices, but with a coefficient much lower than economic theory predicts. There is evidence that forecast errors are explained by past forecasts, as well as revisions to the economic outlook, casting doubt on the idea that firms’ forecasts make the best use of the information available at the time. The paper concludes by observing that, while expectations are undoubtedly important, economists need to build on work looking at how they are derived instead of simply assuming they are rational.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© National Institute Economic Review 2021

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Azariadis, C. (1981), ‘Self-fulfilling prophecies’, Journal of Economic Theory, 25, pp. 380–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernanke, B. and Woodford, M. (1997), ‘Inflation forecasts and monetary policy’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29, pp. 653–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanchard, O.J. (2018), ‘Should we reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32, pp. 97120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boneva, L., Cloyne, J., Weale, M. and Wieladek, T. (2016), ‘The effect of unconventional monetary policy on inflation expectations: Evidence from firms in the United Kingdom’, International Journal of Central Banking, 12, pp. 161–96.Google Scholar
Boneva, L., Cloyne, J., Weale, M. and Wieladek, T. (2020), ‘Firms’ price, cost and activity expectations: Evidence from micro data’, Economic Journal, 130, pp. 555–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bordalo, P., Gennaioli, N., Ma, Y. and Sheifer, A. (2020), ‘Over-reaction in macro-economic expectations’, American Economic Review, 110, pp. 2748–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Britton, A. (1999), ‘John Christopher Roderick Dow’, Proceedings of the British Academy, 105, pp. 397413.Google Scholar
Calvo, G.A. (1983), ‘Staggered prices in a utility-maximising framework’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, pp. 383–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y. and Kumar, S. (2018), ‘How do firms form their expectations? New survey evidence’, American Economic Review, 108, pp. 2671–713.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., Kumar, S. and Pedemonte, M. (2018), ‘Inflation expectations as a policy tool’, NBER Working paper 24788, June, https://www.nber.org/papers/w24788.Google Scholar
Das, M., Dominitz, J. and van Soest, A. (1999), ‘Comparing predictions and outcomes: Theory and application to income changes’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 445, pp. 7585.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dow, C. (1998), Major Recessions, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Gali, J. (2011), ‘The return of the wage Phillips curve’, Journal of the European Economic Association, 9, pp. 436–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levine, P., Pearlman, J., Perendia, G. and Yang, B. (2012), ‘Endogenous persistence in an estimated DSGE model under imperfect information’, Economic Journal, 122, pp. 1287–312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lui, S., Mitchell, J. and Weale, M. (2010), ‘Qualitative business surveys: Signal or noise’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A174, 174, pp. 327–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mavroedis, S., Plagborg-Moeller, M. and Stock, J.H. (2014), ‘Empirical evidence on inflation expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips curve’, Journal of Economic Literature, 52, pp. 124–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Olson, U., Drasgow, F. and Dorans, N. (1982). ‘The polyserial correlation coefficient’, Psychometrika, 47, pp. 337–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Olsson, U. (1979), ‘Maximum-likelihood estimation of the polychoric correlation coefficient’, Psychometrika, 44, pp. 443–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rotemberg, J. (1983), ‘Aggregate consequences of fixed costs of price adjustment’, American Economic Review, 73, pp. 433–36.Google Scholar
Wadhwani, S. (1999), ‘Currency puzzles’, speech given at the London School of Economics, 16 September, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/1999/currency-puzzles.pdf?la=en&hash=B35E3EE32ECACB48464DECC50AE1808DFD1E47B7.Google Scholar
Weale, M. and Wieladek, T. (2016), ‘What are the macroeconomic effects of asset purchases?’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 79, pp. 8193.CrossRefGoogle Scholar