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Assessment of APCC models fidelity in simulating the Northeast monsoon rainfall variability over Southern Peninsular India

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Abstract

The fidelity of the eight Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC) models in representing the inter-annual variability and decadal shift in the northeast monsoon (NEM; October–December) rainfall over Southern Peninsular India (SPI) is evaluated. The hindcast data is used for the period of 28 years from 1983 to 2010 based on September initial conditions. The observations showed a clear inter-annual and inter-decadal variability of NEM rainfall during the study period. The analysis suggests that most of the models exhibited poor skill in representing the inter-annual variability. Only APCC model rainfall is in phase with observed SPI rainfall variations on the inter-annual time scale. It is noticed from the observed NEM rainfall time series that the period 1990–1999 (first decade) displays an above-normal rainfall and the period 2000–2010 (second decade) displays a below normal rainfall over the SPI region. It is also evident from the observations that NEM rainfall for most of the years displayed negative anomalies in the second decade including El Niño and La Niña years, while in the first decade positive anomalies are noted, suggesting the presence of decadal variability in the NEM. Rainfall variations in most of the coupled models are in phase with the observations during the second decade but are out of phase during the first decade. As evidenced from the observations that the intensified deep convection over the Indo-western Pacific region results in too far southward movement of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the second decade. The southward shift in the strong upper-level divergence associated with lower-level convergence over the south Indian Ocean caused negative rainfall anomalies over the SPI in this decade. Further, the difference between the second and first decade demonstrates that an anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the Indian subcontinent is accountable for the vigorous dry northerly flow towards the SPI region and the resultant decadal shift in the rainfall pattern. Though the southward shift in the rainfall and large-scale circulation patterns are mildly captured by some models from decade to decade, most of the models completely misrepresented it. This study suggests that the coupled models displayed a very limited skill not only in capturing the inter-annual variability but also in representing the decadal variability of NEM rainfall.

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Acknowledgments

We acknowledge the support of IITM, MoES, Government of India, Andhra University, and DST, Government of India, for providing fellowship (DST/INSPIRE Fellowship/IF160117 to K. Prasanna). GrADS has been used for preparing the manuscript figures. The authors acknowledge the APCC Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) Producing Centers for making their data available for analysis and the APEC Climate Center for collecting and archiving them and for organizing APCC MME prediction.

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All Authors contributed to the study conception and design. Ideas are concieved by J S. Chowdary and Konatham Prasanna. Data collection and analysis were performed by Konatham Prasanna and Dasari Chiranjeevi. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Konatham Prasanna and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to K. Prasanna.

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Prasanna, K., Chowdary, J.S., Singh, P. et al. Assessment of APCC models fidelity in simulating the Northeast monsoon rainfall variability over Southern Peninsular India. Theor Appl Climatol 144, 931–948 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03559-3

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