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Pronatalistic Value of Children and Sri Lanka’s Fertility Rebound

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Abstract

Unexpectedly, Sri Lanka started demonstrating an increase in fertility, since the early part of the new millennium. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 5.3 births per woman in the 1950s which declined to 3.4 in 1981 and further to 1.9 during the period 1995–2000 unexpectedly soared to the 2.3 level as evidenced by the 2006–07 DHS. Observed fertility increase continued and reached TFR of 2.4 by 2012, which is the ever-reported highest value during the past 15–20 years. This trend is a result of several factors including a change in “value of children.” The declining trend in the mean age at marriage and contraceptive prevalence during the past decade may have contributed to this unexpected trend. Data collected during the past 15–20 years have shown an increase in the perceived benefits from children. Many pro-natal sympathizers justify pronatalistic activities by arguing that the country needs more births. A large proportion of couples prefer to have two or three children. Having experienced natural (tsunami) and man-made (civil strife by Tamil and Muslim extremists) disasters, most couples have revised their fertility preferences. Apart from these factors, all main ethnic groups in Sri Lanka are concerned about their share in the country’s overall population, which would have also contributed to the change in the value of children in contemporary Sri Lanka.

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Notes

  1. Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The average number of children that would be born alive to a woman (or a group of women) during her lifetime if she were to pass through her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year. This rate is sometimes stated as the number of children women are having today.

  2. The replacement fertility implies a TFR usually between 2.1 and 2.2 children per woman, depending on a country’s level of mortality. Since the infant mortality rate of Sri Lanka was at a very low level, of only 19 and 11 per thousand live births in 1990 and 2009 respectively, its replacement fertility is defined as an average of 2.1 children per woman.

  3. Section 303 of the Penal Code provides that anyone voluntarily causing a woman with child to miscarry is subject up to three years imprisonment and/or payment of a fine, unless the miscarriage was caused in good faith in order to save the life of the mother. A woman who induces her own miscarriage is subject to the same penalties.

  4. The data for ideal number of children was collected in the 2016 DHS by asking two separate questions. Respondents with no children were asked: “if you could choose exactly the number of children to have in your whole life, how many would that be?” Respondents who had children were asked: “if you could go back to the time when you did not have any children and could choose exactly the number of children to have in your whole life, how many would that be?”

  5. Wanted fertility rate: The number of children on average a woman would have over the course of her lifetime if she bore children at current age-specific fertility rates, excluding unwanted births. A birth is considered wanted if the number of living children at the time of conception is lower than the ideal number of children currently reported by the respondent (Department of Census and Statistics 2017).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka

    W. Indralal De Silva

  2. Sri Lanka Social Security Board, Colombo, Sri Lanka

    W. S. M. Goonatilaka

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  1. W. Indralal De Silva
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De Silva, .I., Goonatilaka, W.S.M. Pronatalistic Value of Children and Sri Lanka’s Fertility Rebound. Child Ind Res 14, 607–628 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12187-020-09799-5

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