Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

The heterogeneous effects of socioeconomic and cultural factors on fertility preferences: evidence from Rwanda and Kenya

  • Original Research
  • Published:
Journal of Population Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This research uses the latest Demographic and Health Surveys to investigate the heterogeneity of effects of socioeconomic and cultural factors on fertility preferences in Rwanda and Kenya, two countries undergoing fertility transition. The results show that the preference for high fertility in Rwanda is associated with few factors namely low education, protestant religion and high child mortality. In this country, economic factors are not significant. In Kenya, however, both socioeconomic and cultural factors are important. The propensity for high fertility is correlated with low economic status, low education, Muslim religion, large family size of origin, high child mortality, etc. While Rwanda tends to be homogenous with the attitude towards low fertility Kenya displays enormous variations. The negative attitude for high fertility in Rwanda, even among the poor and rural populations, has been linked with poverty awareness and scarcity of land, which undermine the traditional values attached to large families. The conclusion is that the relationships between socioeconomic and cultural factors and fertility preferences are not unidirectional; they may vary with local context. What is significant in one country may be with less important in another. Thus, the strategies to enhance the ongoing fertility transition should be country based, designed and implemented.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Pre transition (7 +), Early (6–6.9), Early-mid (5–5.9), Mid (4–4.9), Mid/late (3–3.9), Late (2.1–2.9), Post-transition (0–2.0).

References

  • Alonzo, R., Balisacan, A., Canlas, D., Capuno, J., Clarete, R., Danao, R., et al. (2004). Population and poverty: The real score. Discussion paper 415. University of the Philippines, Accessed 24 July 2017. http://www.econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/120/117.

  • Andorka, R. (1978). Determinants of fertility in advanced societies. London: Methuen & Co.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bakilana, A. (2016). Why are fertility rates so high in Sub-Saharan Africa? https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/05/why-are-fertility-rates-so-high-in-sub-saharan-africa.

  • Basu, A. M. (2002). Why does education lead to lower fertility? A critical review of some of the possibilities. World Development, 30(10), 1779–1790.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Becker, G. S. (1991). A treatise on the family. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bhargava, A. (2007). Desired family size, family planning and fertility in Ethiopia. Journal of Biosocial Science, 39, 361–381.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bongaarts, J. (2002). The end of the fertility transition in the developing world. In Paper presented to the expert meeting on completing the fertility transition. ESA/P/WP.172 proceedings (pp. 288–307). New York: United Nations—Population Division. http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/completingfertility/RevisedBONGAARTSpaper.PDF.

  • Bongaarts, J. (2003). Completing the fertility transition in the developing world: The role of educational differences and fertility preferences. Population Studies, 57(3), 321–335.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bongaarts, J. (2008). Fertility transitions in developing Countries: Progress or stagnation? Working paper no. 7. New York: Population Council.

  • Bongaarts, J. (2011). Can family planning programs reduce high desired family size in Sub-Saharan Africa? International Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 37(4), 209–216.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bongaarts, J., & Casterline, J. (2013). Fertility transition: Is sub-Saharan Africa different? Population and Development Review, 38(Suppl.), 153–168.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caldwell, J. C., & Caldwell, P. (1987). The cultural context of high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review, 13(3), 409–437.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caldwell, J. C., & Caldwell, P. (1990). High fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. Scientific American, 262(5), 118–125.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Casterline, J., Agyei-Mensah, B. S. (2017). Fertility desires and the course of fertility decline in Sub-Saharan Africa. In J. Casterline & J. Bongaarts (Ed.), Fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa (Vol. 43, No. S1, pp. 84–111). Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00557.x.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chamie, J. (1977). Religious differentials in fertility: Lebanon, 1971. Population Studies, 31(2), 365–382.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chaudhury, R. H. (1984). Hindu–Muslim differential fertility: How much religion and how much socio? Social Action, 34(3), 251–273.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cleland, J. (2002). Education and future fertility trends, with special reference to mid-transitional countries. In Completing the fertility transition. Part 2. Background papers (pp. 187–202). New York: United Nations, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

  • Cleland, J., & Wilson, C. (1987). Demand theories of the fertility transition: An iconoclastic view. Population Studies, 41(1), 5–30.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Easterlin, R. A., Pollack, R. A., & Wachter, M. L. (1980). Toward a more general economic model of fertility determination: Endogenous preferences and natural fertility (81–150). In R. Easterlin (Ed.), Population and economic change in developing Countries. Chicago, London: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Egerö, B. (1996). Poverty and fertility: Reproductive change under persistent poverty. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, 33, 218–242.

    Google Scholar 

  • Garenne, M. (2017). Persistent high fertility in rural Africa. N-IUSSP.ORG. http://www.niussp.org/article/persistent-high-fertility-in-rural-africa/.

  • Garenne, M., & Joseph, V. (2002). The timing of the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa. World Development, 30(10), 1835–1843.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goodman, A. I., & Koupil, D. L. (2012). Low fertility increases descendant socioeconomic position but reduces long-term fitness in a modern post-industrial society. Proceedings of the Royal Society B., 1, 21. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2012.1415.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greene, W. H. (2012). Econometric analysis (7th ed., pp. 810–811). Boston: Pearson Education. ISBN-13: 978-0131395381.

  • Gurmu, E., & Mace, R. (2008). Fertility decline driven by poverty: The case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Journal of Biosocial Science, 40(3), 339–358.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gwatkin, D. R., Rutstein, S., Johnson, K., Suliman, E., Wagastaff, A., Amouzou, A. (2007). Socio-economic differences in health, nutrition and population in developing countries: An overview. In Health, nutrition, and population. The World Bank: Country Reports on HNP and Poverty. Washington D.C.

  • Hyatt, D. E., & Milne, W. J. (1993). Determinants of fertility in urban and rural Kenya: Estimates and a simulation of the impact of education policy. Environment and Planning A, 25(3), 371–382.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hyeladi, A., Alfred, J., Gyang, L. D. (2014). Assessment of family sizes and poverty levels in Mangu LGA, Plateau State. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 4(3), 310–315.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) [Kenya], Ministry of Health (MOH) and ICF International. (2015). Kenya demographic and health survey 2014. Rockville, MD: KNBS. MOH, and ICF Macro.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kodzi, I., Johnson, D., & Casterline, J. (2015). Examining the predictive value of fertility preferences among Ghanaian women. Demographic Research, 22(30), 965–984.

    Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, S. P., & Rackin, H. (2010). The correspondence between fertility intentions and behavior in the United States. Population and Development Review, 36(1), 91–118.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mturi, A. J. (1989). Infant and child mortality and its effects on fertility in Kenya. M.S. thesis, Cairo Demographic Centre, 1989.

  • Muhoza, D. N., Broekhuis, A., & Hooimeijer, P. (2014). Variations in desired family size and excess fertility in East Africa. International Journal of Population Research, 2014, 486079. https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/486079.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Musahara, H., & Huggins, C. (2004). Land reform, land scarcity and post conflict reconstruction: A case study of Rwanda. In African centre for technology studies, eco-conflicts, 2004 (Vol. 3, No. 3). An international policy research organisation, United Nations Avenue, Gigiri Nairobi, Kenya.

  • National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) [Rwanda], Ministry of Health (MOH) and ICF International. (2015). Rwanda demographic and health survey 2014–15. Rockville, MD: NISR, MOH, and ICF Macro.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nauck, B. (2007). Value of children and the framing of fertility: Results from a cross-cultural comparative survey in 10 societies. European Sociological Review, 23(5), 615–627.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Odusola, A. F. (2002). Poverty and fertility dynamics in Nigeria: A micro evidence. In Paper presented at the conference of the Centre for the Study of African Economies of Oxford University by Head Research NCEMA, Ibadan. Accessed 24 July 2017. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3101818.

  • Orbeta, A. J. C. (2005). Poverty, fertility preferences, and family planning practice in the Philippines. Discussion papers, series 2005–22. Philippine Institute for Development Studies.

  • Orbeta, A. J. C. (2006). The more the poorer: Why large family size causes poverty. Philippine Institute for Development Studies Policy Notes. http://www.eldis.org/document/A75457.

  • Pandey, R., & Kaur, C. (2015). Modelling fertility: An application of count regression models. Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment. https://doi.org/10.1080/10042857.2015.1111573.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pison, G. (2017). African families are larger than those of other continents? In The conversation. https://theconversation.com/why-african-families-are-larger-than-those-of-other-continents-84611. October 11, 2017, SAST.

  • Rafalimanana, H., & Westoff, C. F. (2000). Potential effects on fertility and child health and survival of birthspacing preferences in sub-Saharan Africa. Studies in Family Planning, 31(2), 99–110.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schoen, R., Astone, N. M., Kim, Y. J., & Nathanson, C. A. (1999). Do fertility intentions affect fertility behavior? Journal of Marriage and the Family, 61(3), 790–799. https://doi.org/10.2307/353578.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, D. J. (2004). Contradictions in Nigeria’s Fertility transition: The Burden and benefits of Having People. Population and Development Review, 30(2), 221–238.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). Trends in contraceptive use worldwide 2015 (ST/ESA/SER.A/349).

  • Westoff, C. F. (1990). Reproductive intentions and fertility rates. International Family Planning Perspectives, 16(3), 84–89.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank the Rwanda Economic Policy Research Network for its financial encouragement to conduct this research. He is also grateful to anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and recommendations which definitely helped to improve the quality of the publication.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Applied Statistics, College of Business and Economics, University of Rwanda, P.O. Box 4285, Kigali, Rwanda

    Dieudonne Ndaruhuye Muhoza

Authors
  1. Dieudonne Ndaruhuye Muhoza
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Dieudonne Ndaruhuye Muhoza.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The author declares that he has no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Muhoza, D.N. The heterogeneous effects of socioeconomic and cultural factors on fertility preferences: evidence from Rwanda and Kenya. J Pop Research 36, 347–363 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-019-09227-8

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-019-09227-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation