Evaluating the spatial spillover effect of farmland use transition on grain production – An empirical study in Hubei Province, China

Highlights

• Selected indicators from farmland quantitative and input morphology to reflect FUT.

• The direct effects and spatial spillover effects of FUT on grain production were considered and analyzed.

• Under the impact of topographical constraints, the effects were proved to be different.

• Farmland use and grian production should be considered for regional coordinated.

Abstract

Farmland resources are the most basic material for grain production. Therefore, the impact of farmland use transition (FUT) on grain production is receiving increasing attention from scholars. However, only a few studies have explored the spatial spillover effects of FUT on grain production and investigate the impact difference under topographical constraints. To fill this gap, this study uses county-level panel data of farmland use and grain production in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2017 and constructs a spatial econometric model to investigate the spatial spillover effects of FUT on grain production at the macro level and different topographical areas. The conclusions are as follows. (1) In the entire Hubei Province, there is a positive spatial spillover effect on grain production in the counties, and the spatial spillover effect is mainly driven by transition of the farmland quantity, machinery input, and farmland irrigation infrastructure input. (2) The topographical constraints lead to the heterogeneity of the spatial spillover effects of FUT on grain production. In plain areas, the spatial spillover effects of grain production mainly depend on transition of farmland quantity, machinery, fertilizers, and farmland irrigation infrastructure input. In hilly-mountainous areas, labor input is the main factor that affects grain production. (3) This study concludes that promoting the coordinated development of regional farmland use and grain production is one of the effective ways to achieve food security. Therefore, policy makers should formulate agricultural support policies based on the trends of FUT in different topographical areas.